Ste Tudor looks at where the goals, assists and three points will likely come from in the Premier League this week.
Brighton v Liverpool (Saturday, 12:30) – Sadio to score on the south coast
Were the chances gifted to West Ham last week the first evidence of title race jitters creeping into Liverpool’s play? Very possibly, but that shouldn’t overly concern them at the Amex. The Seagulls have the second-worst chance conversion rate in the top-flight and their profligacy only seems to be intensifying. In their last four games – all defeats – Brighton had 48 attempts on goal. They put away just one.
If the visitors presently look a touch edgy at the back they can of course compensate in style at the other end. Jurgen Klopp’s side have failed to score only once in their last 38 league games and as ever they lean heavily on their forwards. A remarkable 73% of their Premier League goals this term has come courtesy of their front three and that trend is escalating, climbing to 76% in their most recent five fixtures.
Take your pick from Liverpool’s attacking assemble to score first but Sadio Mane offers the best value.
Brentford v Burnley (Saturday, 15:00) – A scrap with few set-pieces
Kristoffer Ajer and Christian Norgaard are both 50/50 to feature for the Bees and worst-case scenario both would be significant losses in this relegation scrap. Burnley for their part are without Ben Mee and it’s telling that the Clarets have failed to win any of the other five games their captain has missed this term.
Two aspects from this fascinating clash stand out, the first being their respective records this season against the current bottom six and it is Brentford who surprisingly have shown more resolve, accruing nearly twice as many points as Burnley in relegation six-pointers.
Their combined low corner counts for 2021/22 is also worth noting. Only Everton have racked up fewer than either side since August.
Manchester United v Tottenham (Saturday, 17:30) – Crisis mounts at Old Trafford
Admittedly, they have blown hot and cold since Antonio Conte’s arrival but it’s hard to shake the feeling that Spurs are on the up right now. Harry Kane is looking back to his best, scoring five in four to double his season’s Premier League goal-haul. Even their long-standing scapegoat Matt Doherty is putting in some outstanding displays.
They will head to Old Trafford buoyant but fearing a patented United backlash after Ralf Rangnick’s men showed their true faded colours last week in the derby, an apathetic performance that has led to a welter of criticism. So substantial are United’s problems however, that even a trademarked response might be beyond them here.
Exactly half of Tottenham’s goals since February have come inside half an hour so let’s go with an early continuation of crisis for the Reds.
Roll the dice on Spurs to be ahead at the break @ around 3.7
Chelsea v Newcastle (Sunday, 14:00) – Not a Bridge too far
Chelsea’s unprecedented and extraordinary off-pitch problems will surely have a negative impact on Thomas Tuchel’s side but judging by their routine dismissal of Norwich on Thursday evening we might first see a siege mentality take hold.
At Carrow Road, Kai Havertz once again sparkled and the German schemer now has three goals and an assist from his last two starts. There was also a first goal in 2022 for Mason Mount.
The visitors meanwhile have not won at the Bridge for a decade, but have they ever been in better shape to do so? The Magpies’ unbeaten run stretches back to Christmas and they have impressively shared around the goal-scoring duties in that time with nine different players finding the target. It might be pertinent too that seven of their last eight strikes have come in the first half.
Everton v Wolves (Sunday, 14:00) – No turning a corner
Any optimism that accompanied Frank Lampard’s appointment at Goodison has been well and truly eroded by recent results and the apathetic manner of them. In their last three fixtures, the Toffees have managed a meagre two shots on target and for a team that especially prizes set-pieces their slight corner-count is a concern too. Just nine in 270 minutes tells us where they’re playing most of their football and it’s not in the final third.
Wolves may have scored four times in a league game for the first time since January 2019 at home to Watford this week but let’s not get carried away. This is still a side that has scored 28 in 28, a set-up designed to nullify, not destroy.
In a game that will likely offer up few chances let’s hope the ambitious Richarlison at least goes against the grain.
The Brazilian forward is around 19.0 to have four or more shots
Leeds v Norwich (Sunday, 14:00) – Pukki, a pen, and a porous defence
For much of their troubled campaign Leeds have placed great stock in the return of Patrick Bamford. Now that the 28-year-old is finally back, let’s see how improved they are with some form and structure up front.
Certainly, the striker can’t do much about his side’s consistently porous defence. Since they last kept a clean sheet way back in November, Leeds have conceded a staggering 3.1 goals per game.
Which will no doubt wet the lips of Teemu Pukki, the Canaries’ chief goal source. The Finnish forward has bagged two in two this past week, the latter a penalty and instinct tells us a spot-kick may feature again in this bottom five scrap. Referee Start Atwell has awarded a fairly high 0.29 pens per game this season.
Southampton v Watford (Sunday, 14:00) – Saints to bounce back
Just when the Saints were winning plaudits by the bucketful, they appear to have taken a giant leap backwards, losing consecutive games, one of which was little short of a capitulation.
Watford too have tainted a recently attained reputation because before Thursday’s 4-0 hammering at Wolves they had become difficult to beat on the road under Roy Hodgson.
What swings this fixture in favour of the home side is Southampton’s proven ability to bounce back from setbacks, last losing three on the spin in early 2021. Plus, when the Hornets are average, they’re poor, and when they’re poor, they’re atrocious.
West Ham v Aston Villa (Sunday, 14:00) – A coin-flip cliché
Though the Hammers are deprived of their joint-leading goal-scorer Jarrod Bowen this remains a difficult one to call. David Moyes’ side emerged from their recent Anfield loss with a good deal of credit and prior to that they were unbeaten in four. Granted, their brilliant and fluid displays that rocketed them into the top four are less in evidence these days but it’s still a fool’s errand to back against them at home.
Villa meanwhile have seriously impressed in recent weeks, fully punishing three off-form opponents and tapping back into the front-foot, adventurous fare that was prevalent during Steven Gerrard’s opening weeks in charge.
Cliché alert but this really could come down to whichever side turns up on the day so instead we turn to the individuals involved. Philippe Coutinho is loving life right now, scoring twice and assisting once in his last two outings.
Arsenal v Leicester (Sunday, 16:30) – Gunners to reload
Across their last 10 games no other team boasts better form than the Gunners but it’s their four consecutive wins since taking an enforced 18-day break from action that really intrigues, with Mikel Arteta stating ahead of beating Wolves on their return that an awful lot of work had taken place on the training pitch. Their shape had been redefined. Shortcomings from May through to February had been closely scrutinized.
Clearly, their reboot is paying off handsomely and Arsenal should be fancied to continue their reawakening against a Leicester that was just starting to resemble their former selves with Jamie Vardy back only for their seasoned poacher to succumb to injury again.
This fixture has treated us to numerous 3-1s in recent years, along with a 4-3 and 5-2, and goals will likely feature once more.
Crystal Palace v Man City (Monday, 20:00) – The Blues
Palace have been a bete noire for City in recent times, yet oddly the Eagles have enjoyed their best results at the Etihad with a shock 2-0 win back in October still fresh in the memory. At Selhurst Park, time and again they have proven to be a tough nut to crack but Pep Guardiola’s men have found a way.
Timing though is everything for this clash, as City embark on the home straight in yet another title race. Now their goal return drops but so too do any slips made at the back. Now they become a machine who typically do enough to get the job done.
Source: Betfair Premier League
