Alex Keble analyses the Christmas fixtures coming up, arguing that Chelsea’s title challenge may come to an end while Leeds United will get sucked deeper into the relegation battle…
“The January 2 meeting of Liverpool v Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is the pick of the games, and it could just end the hosts’ title challenge.”
The Premier League has decided not to suspend any of the upcoming festive fixtures despite the continued strain on clubs as Covid-19 cases rise. This is, of course, subject to any potential government intervention, but for the time being the league will continue with its plan to play three rounds of matches in the space of seven days over Christmas.
Six of the ten matches from the weekend were postponed but following a meeting it is unlikely we will have quite so many again. It seems the criteria has been tightened to avoid a fixture pile-up, as teams are now expected to fulfil their games if they have 13 outfield players and one goalkeeper available for selection.
Consequently these next few matches could have a big impact on how things look at the top and bottom of the Premier League. There is the potential for an 18-point swing over this hectic time, and once we emerge for air in January the table could look very different. Here’s a look at who is in the best and worst position based on their fixture lists.
Chelsea could fall away
The January 2 meeting of Liverpool v Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is the pick of the games, and it could just end the hosts’ title challenge.
Depleted squads invariably hits the weaker teams harder and the depth of talent at the top three should see them through, which will certainly be the case for Liverpool. They start with a simple home game against struggling Leeds United before travelling to a Leicester City team looking very disjointed.
Similarly Manchester City will surely collect nine points from Leicester (h), Brentford (a), and Arsenal (a); the Gunners have lost five of the last six against Pep Guardiola’s side, and with such a deep bench City should beat tired Arsenal legs in January.
However, Chelsea’s trip to Ason Villa is a potentially tricky game, with Steven Gerrard’s strong defensive record likely to deepen Thomas Tuchel’s creativity problems after successive draws against mid-table clubs.
That means Chelsea may face Liverpool already eight points off the top. They are unlikely to beat Jurgen Klopp’s team, who are firing on all cylinders and will enjoy the counter-attacking space left by the hosts’ prosaic football. Even a draw, then, would put Chelsea too far back to recover.
Man Utd to surge back into top four
The top-four race is likely to contain plenty more dropped points for those in the running. Arsenal should bob along nicely, beating Norwich (a) and Wolves (h) before that Man City game, but they will probably see the gap close to Manchester United – who ought to record a 100% record, kick-starting the Ralf Rangnick era and taking them to within two points of the Gunners with two games in hand.
The extended break may well have been good for them, in terms of tactical training under Rangnick, and they have a very simple run of Newcastle (a), Burnley (h), and Wolves (h). The same might also be true of Antonio Conte’s Tottenham, who after so many postponements can move through the gears with easy games against Crystal Palace (h), Southampton (a), and Watford (a). Three wins from three, and Spurs and United become top four favourites.
West Ham have been slipping recently and may only manage draws against Southampton (h) and Palace (a), played either side of a trip to Watford.
Leeds to fall into low-scoring bottom five
It all looks rather desperate at the bottom end. The games are never easy when you’re in a relegation scrap and yet it does seem a particularly harsh Christmas period for all concerned.
Norwich City face Arsenal (h), Palace (a), and Leicester (a), a run that is likely to yield zero points. The same can be said for Watford – who face Wolves (a), West Ham (h), and Spurs (h) – and Newcastle, tasked with Man Utd (h), Everton, (a), and Southampton (a).
If any of these three are going to record points, it will be Eddie Howe’s team, who may fancy themselves against free-falling Everton and Southampton – but there is really no evidence to suggest they will get anything. Howe seems incapable of organising a defence and until he signs new recruits points will be scarce.
The highlight at the bottom end is Leeds hosting Burnley on January 2. Before that, Marcelo Bielsa’s side travel to Anfield then host high-flying Villa, whereas Burnley host Everton then travel to Old Trafford. Sean Dyche may well take points from Rafael Benitez’s team, and then his ultra-defensive tactics should see a jaded Leeds fall down. It looks likely to be a tough week for them.
Source: Betfair Premier League
