Wolves v Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Wolves and Villa are both generally better when allowed to sit back and counter-attack, but at Molineaux the hosts will hold more of the ball. It is certainly possible that Adama Traore will win his individual battle with Matt Targett, although on the whole Wolves aren’t looking fluid in a 4-2-3-1 and are too easy to play against without Raul Jimenez: at Liverpool, Wolves played the game in front of Jurgen Klopp’s defence.
Villa have a strong back four who, sitting deep, are good at rebutting a team that plays everything in front of them (see their 3-0 win over Arsenal). Should they invite Wolves on like this, then space may open on the counter-attack as it did so often for Liverpool. Nuno Esperito Santo’s side have only recently switched to a back four and their centre-backs are consistently making positional errors, acting as if there is a third, spare man near them.
Wily Boly, for example, twice rushed out of the back line to close down Diogo Jota, leaving a gaping hole and Liverpool capitalised. If Jack Grealish can roam into central areas on Saturday he will likely draw some similarly erratic defending, and with Ollie Watkins spinning in behind that gives Villa the edge.
Man Utd v Man City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer did the double over Pep Guardiola last season, using two different formations but exactly the same approach. In a 3-4-1-2 at Old Trafford, strikers Anthony Martial and Daniel James split into the channels as Bruno Fernandes looked to play an early long ball behind the Man City defence. In a 4-2-3-1 at the Etihad, Marcus Rashford and Martial combined on the left flank to catch the hosts.
The 3-4-1-2 is more likely this weekend, but whatever the formation the pattern will be the same: Man Utd will sit very deep, allow Man City’s centre-backs to aimlessly pass the ball, and then wait for chances to counter behind Guardiola’s high line. It looks set to be another very difficult game for Man City, given that their pressing has dropped significantly this season.
Fernandes in particular will be given the time and space to look up and pick out the long ball forward. United should be able to break with relative ease against an increasingly passive City side.
Everton v Chelsea
Saturday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Take out their game against leaky Fulham, and Everton have scored just three goals in their last five Premier League matches. Carlo Ancelotti’s team appear incapable of gelling if just one of their attacking threats is missing: first it was Richarlison, and now with Lucas Digne out Everton are struggling to create chances. With N’Golo Kante dominating in his new Makelele role, Chelsea don’t have too much to worry about.
Ancelotti has switched to a 3-4-3 recently with mixed results, but he will probably stick with this approach for Saturday in order to pack the Everton penalty area with bodies. The idea behind the formation is to allow James Rodriguez to stay high up the pitch without losing defensive shape, but that might become a problem again at Stamford Bridge.
As Frank Lampard’s attacking players roam freely across the number ten space, pinning Everton back, the wing-backs are likely to drop, changing the formation to a flat 5-2-3. This is likely to create fertile pockets of space on either side of a two-man Everton midfield, and it is here – the half-spaces – that Christian Pulisic, Mason Mount, and Kai Havertz like to play. Chelsea should win comfortably.
Arsenal v Burnley
Sunday, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Mikel Arteta is in desperate need of a big win to get the critics back on side, and it is plausible that Burnley are just the right team for Arsenal to play right now. Sean Dyche tends to lose heavily on the road to the ‘Big Six’ mostly because their confrontational 4-4-2 leaves too much space between the lines; attempting to hold a midblock and rough up your opponent isn’t wise when the talent gap is that big.
Arsenal are clearly over-relying on crosses recently, and the last team you want to try that against is Burnley. Nevertheless, the overlapping runs of Kieran Tierney, who is supported by Arsenal’s only line-breaking attacker at the moment Bukayo Saka, offer the key to victory.
Last weekend Everton’s goal came from a positional error from right-back Matt Lowton, who stepped out from the back to close down a midfielder, leaving the flank open for Richarlison to cross for Dominic Calvert-Lewin. With Saka cutting inside, he can force a similar lapse in concentration that allows Tierney to get on the ball inside the box.
Source: Betfair Premier League
