Alex Keble returns with his tactical analysis for the big Premier League games, including why Southampton can start a great escape this weekend…
“James Ward-Prowse is an excellent crosser of the ball, but he rarely gets the chance to deliver for Austin. Redmond’s through balls should cause Bournemouth to frantically backpedal, leading to plenty of corners for the hosts and a narrow victory.”
Shaqiri to create chances around Liverpool’s second choice full-backs
Saturday, 12:45, Live on Sky Sports Premier League
It is difficult to predict exactly how many players Jurgen Klopp will rest against Stoke City ahead of the trip to Rome, but he is guaranteed to leave out Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson, as he did in the 0-0 draw with Everton and the 2-2 draw with West Brom. Doing so leaves Liverpool vulnerable to crosses from out wide.
West Brom hurled 29 crosses into the box at the Hawthorns, reflecting the extent to which Joe Gomez and Alberto Moreno struggled to close down the Baggies’ wide men. Everton were similarly effective, as Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines overlapped to cross nine times between them, taking advantage of Liverpool’s old errors returning. Before Robertson and Alexander-Arnold came along, Klopp’s side didn’t have the stamina or positional intelligence in the full-back positions to adequately defend, particularly since their 4-3-3 formation doesn’t expect any tracking back from the front three.
Stoke can hurt Liverpool through Xherdan Shaqiri, whose crossing is already Paul Lambert’s primary attacking weapon (5.8 per match). With Peter Crouch available to get on the end of Shaqiri’s balls into the box, and Liverpool’s renewed issue defending set-pieces (twice conceding v West Brom), it is likely that Shaqiri will find his range and grab Stoke at least one goal.
Redmond & Austin to find a more direct route to goal
Saturday, 15:00
Bournemouth’s insistence on playing high line, attacking football when away from Dean Court explains why they are so leaky on the road, conceding ten goals in their last four away league matches. They are also bottom of the table for tackles and interceptions this season, highlighting Eddie Howe’s expansive formation and the huge gaps between the lines (and in behind) that allow opponents the space to create chances.
Southampton’s 3-4-2-1 has seen them steadily improve over the last few weeks, and now Charlie Austin and Nathan Redmond are back in the side Mark Hughes’s team should be ready to win points. Liverpool’s longer passes over the top caused constant havoc in their 3-0 win against Bournemouth on April 14; Redmond’s passes should free the wing-backs to make similar progress, winning Saints the set-pieces they need to give Austin a chance of scoring.
James Ward-Prowse is an excellent crosser of the ball, but he rarely gets the chance to deliver for Austin. Redmond’s through balls should cause Bournemouth to frantically backpedal, leading to plenty of corners for the hosts and a narrow victory.
Conservative tactics to produce dull stalemate at Huddersfield
Saturday, 15:00
Huddersfield might be six points clear of Southampton but they are by no means out of the relegation battle just yet; with Manchester City, Chelsea, and Arsenal remaining, they desperately need a point against Everton. This should make for a cagey and low-quality game of football, something we have come to expect from Sam Allardyce matches.
Everton have scored three goals in their last four games, reflecting the tactical rigidity that Big Sam has imposed. Theo Walcott and Yannick Bolasie stick to their flanks and the midfield three rarely venture forward, leaving Cenk Tosun isolated up front. It’s miserable to watch.
David Wagner’s side are even worse at the moment, netting just twice in their last six Premier League games. Their defence, led by the hugely under-rated partnership of Zanka and Christopher Schindler, will easily hold off Tosun but Huddersfield probably won’t score against Allardyce’s side. Don’t bother tuning in to this one.
Pogba to dominate against a weakened Arsenal midfield
Sunday, 16:30, Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Arsenal will rest some of their key players this weekend as Arsene Wenger continues to prioritise their Europa League semi-final against Atletico Madrid. Given that Mohamed Elneny is injured and Granit Xhaka has struggled defensively all season, this means Man Utd face a much weakened midfield; Paul Pogba, on a high following his commanding display in the FA Cup semi-final, should be the key figure at Old Trafford.
From the moment he tackled Mousa Dembele and crossed for Alexis Sanchez’s equaliser, Pogba was his old swaggering self; the Frenchman is notoriously difficult to predict but you would expect him to pick up where he left off at Wembley given the inferiority of this weekend’s opponents. Xhaka, Aaron Ramsey, and Ainsley Maitland-Niles make 4.9 tackles and 2.8 interceptions between them per game.
Jose Mourinho has begun to play with greater attacking bravery against the top six over the last half a season, and so we can expect a 4-2-3-1 formation in which United look to press from kickoff to assert early dominance. Arsenal will be heavily depleted in United’s strongest area of the pitch (Mourinho filters the vast majority of attacks down the centre) and have picked up 13 points from 16 away matches in the Premier League this season. It will take a minor miracle for Arsenal to avoid defeat.
Source: Betfair Premier League
