Premier League Relegation Betting: Back Everton to go down under Lampard

“The Spurs game was a frightening example of how Lampard teams lack the coaching to control central midfield. But it wasn’t the only reason they were beaten so heavily.”

As Harry Kane lashed in Tottenham Hotspur’s fifth goal in the 55th minute on Monday evening and Frank Lampard looked on with a thousand-yard stare, it was tempting to wonder if we were about to see the Everton manager’s tenure come to a dramatic end just five weeks after it began.

Spurs looked capable of the sort of damning scoreline from which there is no coming back, and while Antonio Conte’s decision to ease off and reserve energy ultimately saved Everton from greater ignominy, it is still very worrying that Lampard has not managed to improve the team since his appointment at the end of January.

As it stands,

Lampard is 5/1 in Betfair’s Next Premier League Manager to Leave market.

Everton have won one and lost four of their Premier League games under Lampard, and that one win was against Marcelo Bielsa’s free-falling Leeds United. So much for a new-manager bounce.

Club in meltdown

The 5-0 defeat was a new nadir, a low point in a season of lows that leaves Everton just one point above the relegation zone. That’s one point above a Burnley team with the experience to get themselves out of trouble and the recent results to prove it.

The defeat to Spurs was also a performance that encapsulated everything that’s wrong with the Toffees this season, from a disorganised press to a woefully passive midfield to a total lack of ideas in the final third. But what’s even more concerning for Everton fans is that the bold transition from Rafael Benitez to Lampard, from a defensive setup to an expansive one, only seems to be exacerbating their flaws.

Not that we can solely blame Lampard should the unthinkable happen.

Everton’s is a story of colossal mismanagement stretching back years, of owners cosplaying at being a super-club by paying over the odds for famous players already past their peak. These owners have run the club with what seems like a 12-year-old’s understanding of football.

Their scattergun thinking and preference for glamour over substance is best captured in the wild swings between managerial appointments, each a famous name but representing entirely contrasting philosophies. From Sam Allardyce to Marco Silva to Carlo Ancelotti to Benitez to Lampard, radically different visions have been sculpting this club over the years to create a mismatch squad sleepwalking towards the Championship.

At this rate, it is worth backing Premier League ever-presents Everton to go down at 4.57/2.

Lampard can’t settle on a system

Across just seven games in all competitions Lampard has used three very different formations – a 3-4-3, a 4-4-2, and a 4-3-3 – and seemingly done very little work on any of them. His approach seems to be to pick a formation, then if he gets a positive result stick with it and if he gets a negative result shake things up again. It is a way of working that betrays a lack of detail, a lack of thinking about the opposition, and a lack of tactical coaching.

The biggest impact of the approach so far has been a disorganised and passive central midfield, a situation that pre-dates Lampard’s arrival but is getting worse. In the 3-1 defeat to Newcastle United, Joe Willock and Joelinton pressed hard onto a two-man midfield and completely dominated it in the process – and yet Lampard persisted with a two (albeit in a 4-4-2, not a 3-4-3) for the Leeds and Southampton games.

Leeds capitulated because Bielsa’s time was up, before Southampton copied exactly what Newcastle did. In subsequent games Lampard moved to a three in midfield, producing a much better performance against Manchester City (more on that below) before the 5-0 loss against Spurs last night.

Lampard must stick to one formation and train it in greater detail, otherwise the team will remain passive and lacking in intensity. Through midfield especially, Everton just do not apply pressure when needed and are far too easy to cut open by anyone coached to a high modern standard of collective pressing.

The Spurs game was a frightening example of how Lampard teams lack the coaching to control central midfield. But it wasn’t the only reason they were beaten so heavily.

High line and possession football not suited to Everton

Lampard’s broad-strokes philosophy is to press hard, hold a high defensive line, and play out from the back. It is as vague as that sounds. His Chelsea team never showed any order or rhythm in this process, becoming far too easy to counter-attack as a consequence of the passive midfield, individualistic press, and huge spaces left behind the high line.

All of these flaws have been on display in the early days at Everton, and while with time Lampard’s new coaching team may be able to fix things, the dramatic shift from the Benitez era is creating a nervous team incapable of defending from such an expansive shape.

It is highly unlikely Lampard will fix the problems. After the defeat to Spurs, Lampard blamed “mistakes and bad defending” rather than a tactical issue, even saying he was happy with the first 15 minutes and claiming his team were in “relative control” for periods of the game. That is a bizarre take on the action and further sign that his tactical pedigree simply isn’t up to standard.

Man City performance an anomaly

The one caveat to all this is a very strong and cohesive display in the unfortunate 1-0 defeat to Manchester City, a sign – from Lampard’s perspective – that Everton are on the right track and may get out of trouble thanks to their home form. However, it is important to note they were forced to sit deep in this match, holding 31% possession, while in every other match under Lampard they have held at least 47%.

Lampard is committed to playing on the front foot, which is what makes the absence of tactical detail such a problem, whereas when the task is simplified by a low block – by a backs-to-the-wall 4-5-1 for long periods against Man City – Everton are able to keep things tight enough to be competitive. In other words, this match has no bearing on what the Toffees will be doing for the rest of the season.

Everton only have three games left against the ‘Big Six’. For most teams that would be good news, but for Everton that means they will almost always take the game to the opposition. But they will be doing so without any actual instructions. Expect more passivity, more defensive errors, and more heavy defeats. Relegation is a very real possibility.