Easy win for Everton
Entertaining draw at St Mary’s
Southampton vs Tottenham
Sunday, 12:00
Southampton were underwhelming at Palace in their opener, conceding three big chances and creating just one, with Ralph Hassenhuttl questioning his players fitness this week. They are capable of better, and have the ability to bounce back to form here. Tottenham were also poor last weekend, going down at home to Everton in a game which they looked like they had run out of ideas in attack. Spurs are a team that have plenty of attacking quality, but we don’t see it too often these days. Hopefully we get to see the handbrake taken off this weekend. Spurs won just four of 19 league games last season, so don’t travel too well. We think Southampton will avoid defeat (60% SOU or Draw) in a high-scoring game (57% O2.5, 59% BTTS) – 2-2.
Spoils shared at St James’
Newcastle vs Brighton
Sunday, 14:00
Newcastle got their season off to a fantastic start at West Ham, running out 2-0 winners after a solid display. It was nice to see a more attack-minded set-up deployed by Steve Bruce, starting a front two of Callum Wilson and Andy Carroll, and I hope he persists with a similar plan. I though Brighton were excellent on Monday against Chelsea. They out-played the Blues for 80 minutes, and limited the free-spending Blues to 0.6 non-penalty xG while creating two big chances themselves and a total of 1.3 xG. A similar performance here would likely yield at least a point, and Graham Potter’s side are fancied to avoid defeat (63% BHA or Draw) in a low-scoring game (58% U2.5) – 1-1.
Reds to make early statement
Chelsea vs Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30
Chelsea were underwhelming against Brighton in their season opener, and looked severely second best for the most part of the game, needing a Reece James stunner (2%) and a Kurt Zouma deflected shot (11%) to secure the win. They still looked vulnerable defensively, and Kepa was again beaten from range by a shot he should have saved, so I am not yet sold that this Chelsea revolution is worth shouting about right now. They will find their groove for sure at some point though. Liverpool limited Leeds to just 0.3 xG in their 4-3 win, and while Leeds did look more threatening than that on the eye test, a home win was always the likely outcome given it was wave after wave of attacks. The Reds will need to be tighter defensively here, but they are capable of that, and they are more than capable of racking up the chances and goals against this Chelsea defence. I like the chances of Jurgen Klopp’s side this weekend, with goals likely given the attacking nature of both teams (55% O2.5, 59% BTTS) – 1-2.
Burnley to hold Leicester
Leicester vs Burnley
Sunday, 19:00
Leicester’s opener ended up being more comprehensive than would have been expected at 50 minutes, as they ran up the score thanks to two late penalties to earn the win at West Brom. They controlled the game well, but didn’t create too much in the way of chances outside of the penalties (1.4 non pen xG), which is a little concerning. Burnley start their season with this trip, looking to follow on from an impressive top half finish in 19/20. The Clarets lost only two of their last 16 league games, one of those at Manchester City, so are an extremely tough team to beat, and that should continue this term with Sean Dyche at the helm. I like Burnley’s chances of avoiding defeat here (52% BUR or Draw), in a low-scoring affair (55% U2.5) – 1-1.
Villa to start season with a point
Aston Villa vs Sheffield United
Monday, 18:00
Aston Villa start their Premier League season after surviving on the final day last term, with their defensive improvements post-break the main reason for their survival. Dean Smith deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround, as they allowed an average of 2.4 xGA per game prior to the league’s suspension, but only 1.0 after the restart. Maintaining a similar level will be key to their survival again. Sheffield United’s season couldn’t have got off to a worse start, going 2-0 down after only six minutes against Wolves and the game was over. They struggled after that to create and were fortunate not to lose by more in a game that was a serious wake up call for Chris Wilder’s side. They will need to be better here, and should get something from a tight game with few goals expected (55% U2.5) – 1-1.
City to be held by Wolves
Wolves vs Manchester City
Monday, 20:15
Wolves got off to a great start this season with a comfortable 2-0 win over Sheffield United at Bramall Lane, a place where only six teams won last season. They dominated the game from start to finish, and looked extremely fresh after a short off-season which is another positive. Nuno has had great success against Pep since arriving in the Premier League, losing just one of four meetings, with Wolves holding their own on the xG front against City too. Manchester City couldn’t ask for a tougher start to the new season. They were brilliant based on xG last season (2.7 xGF, 1.1 xGA pg), but conceded more ‘big chances’ than Wolves and Manchester United despite allowing over 100 fewer shots. Question marks remain defensively around City, and Wolves can cause them problems again, with the model calculating a 56% chance of Wolves avoiding defeat. A high-scoring game isn’t expected (51% U2.5), though both teams should oblige (53% BTTS) – 1-1.
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Source: Betfair Premier League
