Premier League Correct Score Tips: Infogol’s predictions for every match of GW10

Eagles can edge the Magpies

West Brom vs Sheff Utd
Saturday, 20:00

This fixture already has the hallmarks of a relegation ‘must win’ game for both sides. West Brom have been truly abysmal since returning to the Premier League and their underlying numbers don’t offer much encouragement for a turnaround in form (0.6 xGF, 2.0 xGA pg). According to expected goals, they are the worst team in the league, but despite this, they still have more points (3) than Sheffield United (1). The Blades are creating chances but are crucially failing to take them, racking up 9.8 xG, yet still only scoring four goals this term. It’s likely this significant underperformance will only improve as the season progresses, and Sheff Utd showed enough against West Ham in stages to suggest their time to secure a win is nearing (xG: SHU 1.0 – 2.3 WHU). The Infogol model makes the visitors favourites to win (43%), and a dull game is predicted (60% BTTS No) given both sides poor attacking records.

Back the 1-2 @ 12.011/1

Southampton vs Man Utd
Sunday, 14:00

Southampton currently sit fifth in the Premier League, after remarkably taking 17 points from nine games. Although initially taking the lead against Wolves on Monday (xG: WOL 1.86 – 0.89 SOU), the Saints created less chances on goal, and they’re perhaps fortunate to sit so high in the table. Only four teams have created fewer attacking opportunities than Southampton (1.2 xGF pg) and with Danny Ings still injured, they may struggle to test Manchester United. Contrary to sensational headlines, the Red Devils are improving in defence, and since the penultimate international break they’ve conceded an average of just 0.9 xGA in the Premier League and Champions League. It’s only a matter of time before they begin to ascend the table and they can return to Manchester with the three points (50%) and a clean sheet (46% BTTS No).

Back the 0-2 @ 11.010/1

Chelsea vs Tottenham
Sunday, 16:30

Chelsea are now starting to resemble potential title challengers under Frank Lampard, having lost just once this season. Their most recent win against Newcastle was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests, with the Blues stamping their authority from the first whistle (xG: NEW 0.5 – 2.0 CHE). With an array of attacking talent, Chelsea have averaged 1.8 xGF per game, and while this is impressive, there’s a tantalising feeling that they are still yet to reach second gear – a frightening prospect. Tottenham have also looked outstanding in attack, and while Spurs have created more chances (2.0 xGF pg) than Chelsea (22), they’ve actually found the back of the net less (21). Their defensive record is also inferior, and while City couldn’t find a way past Hugo Lloris last weekend (xG: TOT 0.7 – 2.1 MCI), Chelsea might have no such problem. The hosts can win (57%), but Tottenham won’t go quietly and are predicted to score (59% BTTS).

Back the 2-1 @ 9.89/1

Arsenal vs Wolves
Sunday, 19:15

There’s no denying Arsenal have been underwhelming this campaign, and their draw away at Leeds was another disappointing result, mostly because of Nicolas Pépé’s moment of idiocy (xG: LEE 2.0 – 0.8 ARS). The Gunners aren’t firing this term (1.20 xGF pg) , and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s sudden loss of form is a serious problem for Mikel Arteta, with his captain generating a measly 0.7 non-penalty xG in the Premier League. To make matters worse, they’re now pitted against one of the league’s most astute defensive sides – Wolves. Since their heavy defeat at West Ham, Wolves have been tremendous at the back, conceding an average of just 1.1 xGA per game. With Arsenal also excelling in defence recently according to xG, the Infogol model calculates a 62% chance there will be less than three goals in this fixture. The points will likely be shared, in a low scoring game.

Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1

Leicester vs Fulham
Monday, 17:30

Leicester have established themselves as one of the Premier League’s strongest sides in recent seasons, and they’ve excelled in attack once again this term (1.8 xGF pg). However, the Foxes looked woeful against a depleted Liverpool last weekend (xG: LIV 4.4 – 1.7 LEI), although they won’t be the last team to struggle against the champions this season. Now up against Fulham, they have the perfect opportunity to bounce back, with the London club already looking likely to be relegated. Scott Parker’s insistence on playing out from the back has left them vulnerable in defence (1.8 xGA pg) on more than one occasion, but it has allowed them to create chances, with Fulham averaging 1.3 xGF per game. The Infogol model predicts Leicester will win (59%), with plenty of goals (51% O2.5) at the King Power Stadium, and Jamie Vardy (1.2 xG/avg match) will surely be relishing the chance to play against Fulham’s shaky back line.

Back the 3-1 @ 13.5

West Ham vs Aston Villa
Monday, 20:00

West Ham have made a brilliant start to the new season, and while they’ve not entirely convinced in their last two fixtures, the Irons have still won, most recently against Sheff Utd (xG: SHU 1.0 – 2.3 WHU). They’ve now scored just one goal in four consecutive matches, though, averaging just 1.1 xGF per game across that period. Aston Villa currently sit one point ahead of West Ham, despite tasting their third defeat of the campaign against Brighton on Sunday (xG: AVL 2.2 – 1.4 BRI). That result was unfortunate, and Villa fans will bemoan the late VAR decision that didn’t go their way, but their underlying numbers are good enough to seek compensation in London (1.9 xGF, 1.4 xGA pg). The Infogol model makes West Ham favourites (48%) but Villa should have enough to ensure the points are shared (56% BTTS).

Back the 1-1 @ 7.613/2

Source: Betfair Premier League