Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions ahead of a big London derby…
“Chelsea continued to eke out results this week, following their Saturday league win with a narrow victory over Zenit in the Champions League, and will travel to north London with two extra days’ rest.”
Leeds to keep their heads above water
Newcastle United v Leeds United
Friday, 20:00
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Newcastle and Leeds are both winless after four games, and both will consider Friday’s meeting a good opportunity to change that. It’s a battle of the two worst xGA records in the league, with both sides averaging more than two expected goals against so far, but Infogol’s model gives the visitors a narrow edge over a team they beat home and away last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Wolves to make it two in a row
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brentford
Saturday, 12:30
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Wolves were very impressive in their win at Watford last weekend, and will want to keep some momentum going at home to a Brentford side coming off a first defeat of the season. The Bees have averaged just 0.93 xGF per game this term, with the average coming down across the two away games, and drew a blank in their last league trip to Molineux back in 2018.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.208/1
Arsenal to sneak a second straight win
Burnley v Arsenal
Saturday, 15:00
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After getting off the mark with a win over Norwich City last weekend, Arsenal can make the most of their lack of European competition and take another three points at the end of a quieter week than most Gunners fans are used to. The London club haven’t lost a league game at Turf Moor this century, and Infogol’s model expects them to go one better after drawing on their last two trips.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Liverpool to lay down marker for title rivals
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00
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With some of Liverpool’s fellow high-flyers not playing until after the Reds’ Saturday game, it’s an opportunity for Jürgen Klopp’s team to put the pressure on those around them. While the corresponding fixture last season ended 2-0 to the hosts, Liverpool also hit seven at Selhurst Park and will feel confident of putting the Eagles to the sword once more after generating the league’s highest xGF through four games.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 8.207/1
Man City to continue winning run
Manchester City v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00
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Manchester City’s long winning-run last season started with a win away to Southampton, and they put five past the Saints in the reverse fixture. Infogol anticipates another win for Pep Guardiola’s side this time out, with the visitors still awaiting a first win of the season, and the team with the league’s best expected goal difference should be comfortable as long as they avoid a Champions League hangover.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.206/1
Norwich to finally get off the mark
Norwich City v Watford
Saturday, 15:00
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Despite still awaiting a first point of the season, Norwich have shown some encouraging signs in their two home games and hit six past Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup. There’s reason to believe they can beat a Watford team who they pipped to the Championship title last season, and Infogol’s model agrees, though the visitors will point to the fact that they did the double over the Canaries in each of the last two seasons.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Everton to suffer first defeat of the season
Aston Villa v Everton
Saturday, 17:30
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Just four points separated Aston Villa and Everton last season, when the meeting at Villa Park ended all square. While the Toffees have started this season the stronger of the two sides, Dean Smith’s side have been better than their four points from four games suggests and averaged an impressive 1.72 xGF per game at home last time – more than many of the sides who finished above them in the table. This points to a home win, but it will likely be close.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Brighton to shut out Leicester
Brighton & Hove Albion v Leicester City
Sunday, 14:00
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Infogol’s model suggests there’s not much to choose between two teams, but the hosts may feel their extra rest can be a benefit against a Leicester side in European action on Thursday night. Brendan Rodgers’ visitors have a lower xGF than all of the bottom three sides, so might consider themselves fortunate to be as high as they are in the table, and Brighton could well be on course to hand the Foxes a second straight scoreless game.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 15.0014/1
Man Utd to rebound from European setback
West Ham United v Manchester United
Sunday, 14:00
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After handing Young Boys a last-gasp winner in midweek, Manchester United face a trip to a ground where they’ve had more success of late. Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s men came from behind to win at the London Stadium last term, and the absence of West Ham’s suspended top scorer Michail Antonio could be enough to sway the tie in the visitors’ favour.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Chelsea to remain unstoppable in the league
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
Sunday, 14:30
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Chelsea continued to eke out results this week, following their Saturday league win with a narrow victory over Zenit in the Champions League, and will travel to north London with two extra days’ rest. Last season’s trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was decided by a Jorginho penalty, and Infogol backs the visitors to get the upper hand in a low-scoring game once more.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.208/1
Source: Betfair Premier League
