Premier League Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW3

“Liverpool and Chelsea have both started the season strongly, each picking up maximum points without conceding a goal, but something’s got to give at Anfield on Saturday evening.”

Arsenal’s tough start to continue

Manchester City v Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30
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After two defeats and no goals, this isn’t exactly what Arsenal would have wanted next. The Gunners take on opponents with the league’s second-best xGF after two games, having not won at the Etihad since 2015, and Infogol’s model anticipates a fifth straight league meeting between the two clubs in which the London club is unable to find a way past City goalkeeper Ederson.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.206/1

Smith to see off former side

Aston Villa v Brentford
Saturday, 15:00
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When Dean Smith left Brentford for Aston Villa in 2018, the London club were several places above their rivals in the Championship. However, Villa would be the ones to go up that season and this is the first time Smith’s successor Thomas Frank will face his old foe in the top flight. The two teams have similar xG numbers at both ends so far, but Infogol backs the hosts to leapfrog their opponents with a narrow win.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Brighton to pick up another three points

Brighton v Everton
Saturday, 15:00
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It took Brighton until January to earn their third win of the 2020-21 season, but Infogol gives them a 39% chance of achieving the feat this term before August is over. Last season’s meeting at the Amex ended scoreless despite the hosts creating the better chances, and much could depend on the recovery of in-form striker Neal Maupay from the shoulder injury which forced him off last weekend.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.50

Magpies to get off the mark

Newcastle United v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00
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Newcastle host Southampton after a dismal start, with one of the league’s worst defences in real and expected terms, but Steve Bruce’s men may be more confident against a Southampton side who they beat last term despite playing 40 minutes a man down. The Saints were fortunate to claim a point against Manchester United last weekend, and last recorded a clean sheet in March, so goals could well be on the menu.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1 or 1-1 @ 7.6013/2

Leicester to get back on track

Norwich City v Leicester City
Saturday, 15:00
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The 2.57 xGA allowed by Leicester at West Ham on Monday night is a figure bested by just two of the Foxes’ opponents in all of last season, and they’ll want to put that result behind them when they travel to Carrow Road. Norwich are scoreless and pointless through their first two league games, but a 6-0 cup win in midweek suggests they’ll put up a fight, even if an away win is the expected outcome according to Infogol.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.0010/1

League leaders West Ham to earn another victory

West Ham United v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00
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West Ham are top of the table for both xG and actual goals, as well as in the more important metric of points, and David Moyes’ side has a great chance to go into the international break with a perfect record. Last season’s meeting at the London Stadium ended all square, with the now-departed Sébastien Haller scoring one of the goals of the season, but the hosts are favoured to come out on top against a Palace side waiting for its first league goal under Patrick Vieira.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2

Liverpool to triumph in big early-season clash

Liverpool v Chelsea
Saturday, 17:30
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Liverpool and Chelsea have both started the season strongly, each picking up maximum points without conceding a goal, but something’s got to give at Anfield on Saturday evening. Both of last season’s meetings brought away wins, but Infogol gives the hosts a slight edge after Jürgen Klopp’s side put their home woes behind them with 13 points – and an average of 2.44 xGF per game – across their last five on home soil.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? No
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 15.0014/1 or the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2

Leeds to keep Burnley in the danger zone

Burnley v Leeds United
Sunday, 14:00
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Both of these teams are awaiting a maiden league win of the campaign, and Infogol suggests Leeds are the more likely to end that statistic. Last season’s 4-0 Leeds win at Turf Moor was far closer than the scoreline suggests, and while Marcelo Bielsa’s side are narrowly favoured to take the points, it would not be a huge surprise to see the hosts pick up their first point of the season.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Spurs to keep up impressive start

Tottenham Hotspur v Watford
Sunday, 14:00
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While Spurs are the only members of the maximum points club to achieve the feat with a negative expected goal difference, Nuno’s team ought to have too much for visitors Watford on Sunday. Both teams have changed manager more than once since Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham pegged back Quique Sánchez Flores’ Hornets in 2019, and Infogol gives the home side a solid chance of victory.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.206/1

United to prolong Wolves’ scoreless start

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester United
Sunday, 16:30
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Bruno Lage’s Wolves tenure has been encouraging from a performance point of view but not from a points perspective, and a meeting with Ole Gunnar Solskjær in his 100th Premier League game at Manchester United isn’t ideal. While a win for the visitors looks like the most likely outcome, the home team will hope they get a bit of good fortune to balance out the bad after giving as good as they got in back-to-back 1-0 league defeats.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2