Aston Villa have not rested on their laurels when it comes to adding to their squad following their promotion. After playoff heartbreak in May 2018, the Villans went one better and beat Derby 2-1 at Wembley this time around to secure their Premier League spot. Their return to England’s top tier was little more than they deserved with boyhood Villa fan Dean Smith succeeding Steve Bruce in October with aplomb.
Indeed, Villa’s 61-point haul from 34 games under Smith was a third best return in the league, with fellow newly-promoted pair Norwich (76) and Sheffield United (64) the only teams to better that figure over the same period. The January loan arrivals of Tyrone Mings and Kortney Hause played key roles, the former especially central to Villa’s promotion push, and it’s no shock that both loan moves have since been made permanent.
Some may have scoffed at Villa’s decision to pay £20m to keep Mings at Villa Park, that possibly rising to £26.5m, particularly as they could’ve had a clause included to sign him for £17m when he arrived on loan, but for a defender his age with Premier League experience under his belt, that outlay may be the difference between safety and relegation.
Villa investing impressively in defence
Crucially is that with the permanent transfers of Mings and Hause, the capture of Matt Targett from Southampton, rectifying Villa’s left-back issues, the signing of Ezri Konsa from Brentford, a player Smith knows from their short time together at Griffin Park, and arrival of Frederic Guilbert from Caen, a deal that was done at the turn of the year, means Villa are going against the grain and potentially avoiding a trap newly promoted teams regularly fall into.
Sides that come up often focus their efforts on bringing in new attackers and it has proven to be an ill-fated approach.
Villa have also been compared to Fulham in their pursuit to add to the squad, but in getting their business done early. Their recruitment policy differs from the Cottagers, who left it until deadline day to announce a flourish of new arrivals and it negatively impacted their pre-season preparations which ultimately resulted in their relegation.
And it’s not as though Villa aren’t adding attacking talent to the squad. Wesley Moraes has joined from Club Brugge for £22m, Anwar El Ghazi’s loan move has been made permanent and Jota Peleteiro has come in from Midlands rivals Birmingham, so the board aren’t taking any chances in backing Smith.
That and a bulk of their business has been done with a month still to go before the season starts suggests they’ll have a stronger chance of retaining their Premier League place compared to Cardiff and Fulham last season.
It’s reflected in the avoid relegation market on the Sportsbook too, with Villa boasting shortest odds of the three promoted sides to beat the drop at 8/15. Norwich, meanwhile, were superb under Daniel Farke last season as they secured their top-flight return as champions, finishing 11 points above third-placed Leeds and scoring more goals (93) than any other side.
Farke has tapped into the German market this summer, bringing Josip Drmic and Ralf Fahrmann to Carrow Road, while Patrick Roberts has joined on a season-long loan. A new contract for Emiliano Beundia and impending new deal for Max Aarons are huge boosts for the Canaries as Farke gears up for his debut Premier League season.
Norwich may struggle due to lack of experienced reinforcements
Fahrmann brings ample experience between the sticks and is arguably an upgrade on Tim Krul in goal, while Drmic has worked extremely hard to bounce back from a series of injuries to get back to full fitness. However, his goalscoring record wasn’t the best in Germany and it remains to be seen how he will fare in England.
There is plenty of time yet to go before the close of the transfer window, and it may yet be that Norwich invest over the coming weeks to bolster the squad in order to retain their Premier League place, but at present; Farke’s side would struggle to avoid the drop with the players at his disposal.
There is young talent in the squad in Ben Godfrey, Jamal Lewis and Aarons, but a lack of top-flight experience may prove costly and it’s why Norwich are the second favourites at [1.96] to be relegated.
Pipping them to first spot in this unwanted race is Championship runners’ up Sheffield United. Blades boss Chris Wilder has done a fine job in getting United promoted, particularly after their second half of the season collapse the previous campaign, which saw them finish six points off the playoff places. Like Norwich, though, Wilder’s side have endured a quiet transfer window to date.
Sheffield United appear ill-equipped for Premier League football
Phil Jagielka has made an emotional return to Bramall Lane, returning following a 12-year stint with Everton, and Luke Freeman has joined from QPR. Callum Robinson is a solid pickup from Preston after he bagged 12 goals and registered three assists in the Championship last season, yet the new signings hardly inspire confidence, even if the club have twice broken their club transfer record already this summer.
Dean Henderson, who kept more clean sheets (21) than any other goalkeeper in the Championship last season, has been linked with a return to Sheffield and his signing would be a significant boost, but United face competition for the youngster’s services. Neal Maupay is another on the club’s radar, and his arrival would be a step in the right direction, yet even so; at the time of writing, United’s squad appears ill-equipped to deal with the rigours of regular top-flight football and it means they are the [1.77] favourites to be relegated from the Premier League.
On the Exchange, United have been backed into [4.0] favourites to finish rock bottom and as good a job as Wilder has done at the Bramall Lane helm, the Premier League may be a step too far at this point in time for the Blades.
With Villa spending big, despite needing the playoffs to come up, they seem the best equipped of the three promoted sides to stay up. They’ve retained the services of key men, notably midfield lynchpin Jack Grealish, and they’ve added new faces to vital areas that needed reinforcements, particularly at left-back.
Unless Norwich and Sheffield United buck up their ideas over the coming weeks, they’ll remain among the favourites to be relegated at the first time of asking whereas Villa are primed to enjoy greater success following their return.
Source: Betfair Premier League
