Alex Keble assesses four tactical battles ahead of this weekend’s Premier League games, with a bet from each game building a fourfold that pays out at around 20/1…
“Vardy and Iheanacho together, with Maddison operating between the lines, provides a sharp counter-attacking link through Man Utd’s clumsy central midfield – and offers a two-on-two against Victor Lindelof and Eric Bailly.”
Watford v Liverpool
Saturday 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1
Watford’s new manager is a savvy appointment considering the tactical style that Xisco had been attempting to implement this season. They have been sitting deep in banks of four and attempting to counter-attack quickly down the flanks via their star players Ismaili Sarr and Emmanuel Dennis, who have already scored six times in the Premier League this season.
Claudio Ranieri will naturally want to emulate this model, as he has done at many clubs over the years. That could cause some problems for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, who tend to commit their full-backs high up the pitch from their narrow 4-3-3; as they are drawn forward by Watford’s deep line, gaps may open behind the full-backs for Sarr and Dennis to cause problems.
The new-manager bounce gives them an usually high chance of a point, although on balance this Liverpool team is just too strong. Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah are in sensational form and with Fabinho patrolling from the base of midfield Watford will be pinned back for long periods. The hosts should get on the score sheet, at least.
Leicester v Man Utd
Saturday, 15:00
It is surely time for Leicester City to go back to a 3-5-2 formation. Brendan Rodgers is worried about how the system, so successful last year, affects their possession game but frankly James Maddison and Harvey Barnes are already struggling. Meanwhile, playing together up front for the first time this season in a 4-4-2 against Crystal Palace, Kelechi Iheanacho and Jamie Vardy both scored.
They have 32 goals in their last 33 Premier League games when starting together, while a sluggish centre-back pair of Jannick Vestergaard and Caglar Soyuncu clearly needs help. Rodgers must be able to see this, and indeed the visit of Manchester United is the perfect moment to change; if they sit back and absorb pressure, as they did well in a 1-0 defeat to Man City, they can stifle Cristiano Ronaldo and hit United on the break.
Vardy and Iheanacho together, with Maddison operating between the lines, provides a sharp counter-attacking link through Man Utd’s clumsy central midfield – and offers a two-on-two against Victor Lindelof and Eric Bailly, deputising for the injured Harry Maguire and Raphael Varane.
Brentford v Chelsea
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Thomas Frank’s team are more direct and aggressive than many people think. They like to get the ball forward very quickly, rarely dallying in possession but instead pumping longer passes forward to their excellent strike partnership of Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo; they are joint-bottom for average possession alongside Burnley, with 41%, bottom of the division for passes per minute of possession (12.1), and second in the league for ‘high passes’ (measuring passes that peak at chest height or above).
These qualities can ruffle Chelsea’s feathers, because alongside some sharp tackling in the centre of the pitch it makes Brentford into a whirlwind to play against – and Thomas Tuchel’s side are starting to look a bit ungrounded. Their possession is becoming increasingly stale and sideways of late, as evidenced by the fact they have the league’s highest passing rate but average ten fewer progressive passes per match than Manchester City.
Assuming Tuchel sticks with the 3-4-3, and Romelu Lukaku’s difficult start continues, Chelsea may be a little too passive to deal with their boisterous hosts. Look out for wing-backs Nico Henry and Sergi Canos getting into space on the counter as Brentford pack the penalty area with bodies.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Arsenal followed up a brilliant 3-1 victory over Tottenham with a disappointing 0-0 draw with Brighton to show they are still psychologically vulnerable, which perhaps gives Crystal Palace the edge. Patrick Vieira’s side are pressing aggressively in the central third of the pitch as Conor Gallagher and James McArthur lead the charge; the midfield battle will define this one.
Should Albert Lokonga and Thomas Partey manage to evade the press and assert some control, then Arsenal will play with confidence as Emile Smith Rowe and Martin Odegaard find space in the final third. But if Palace’s aggression in the challenge squeezes Arsenal out – as they managed against Spurs and Leicester – then heads will drop, allowing the likes of Michael Olise and Wilfried Zaha to get on top.
The other key battle of the game is on Arsenal’s right, where Bukayo Saka is enjoying being given more licence to get forward now that Takehiro Tomiyasu is staying deeper as a defensive right-back. Zaha rarely tracks back on that side, giving Tyrick Mitchell a lot of work to do. It should be an entertaining and unpredictable game.
Source: Betfair Premier League
