Alex Keble looks ahead to the weekend games, including a Carabao Cup final between Liverpool and Chelsea that’s very hard to call…
“In a tight, tense, and claustrophobic affair, Chelsea’s capacity to get behind Liverpool may make the difference. “
Leeds v Tottenham
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Marceo Bielsa’s side have now won just one point from their last five matches and have conceded 16 goals in their last four, an alarming slide that captures what happens when high-risk football built on all-out-attack loses its edge. Low confidence leads to the evaporation of their on-the-ball patterns, leaving huge spaces in the transition with no counter-punch.
Antonio Conte’s future is in serious doubt after the 1-0 defeat to Burnley, but that game could not be further from this one. Spurs were held thanks to a deep defensive line suffocating their 3-4-2-1, and in complete contrast on Saturday Tottenham will have the opportunity to use the attacking transitions as their manager would like.
Harry Kane will drop into the ten position, where he will find enormous amounts of space to receive the progressive pass from midfield and set Heung-Min Son in behind. We will see the best of their attacking play from the 3-2 win at the Etihad – with none of the threat in the opposite direction.
Brentford v Newcastle
Saturday, 15:00
Brentford are in just as much trouble as Leeds. Without Ivan Toney they have lost all of their attacking impetus; he was the most important attacking player, the target man for Thomas Frank’s longer balls, and the link player to lift Bryan Mbeumo. Without him, Brentford have become a flat team who hold a deep defensive line and look to create low-scoring games.
They will largely be successful in this crucial six-pointer, although Newcastle can steal a narrow win on the basis that Allan Saint-Maximin starts in the area Brentford are weakest. In recent games, Joao Cancelo and Emile Smith Rowe have dominated by driving forward from the left, taking advantage of the gap Brentford leave here as their right wing-back drops into the defensive line.
Saint-Maximin is in superb form. He tops the Premier League charts for dribbles (4.6 per match) and, now Adama Traore is gone, he also tops the charts for average distance covered per carry (13.97m). His surging runs down the left can cut through Brentford’s deep shape and create a winning goal.
Everton v Man City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Frank Lampard is still trying to work out what formation to use at Everton, but currently he has a worrying trend for sticking with whichever system worked most recently, as opposed to thinking about the challenge ahead. He has also exclusively deployed a two-man midfield so far, leading to Everton being numerically overwhelmed by Newcastle and Southampton.
He will likely use a three for the visit of Manchester City, and although Everton will naturally be forced back there is little to suggest Lampard will look to copy the Conte model. His teams always looks to play progressively, hence why Southampton and Newcastle so consistently won the ball high up the pitch, stealing it off an Everton player trying to pass through the lines.
This, coupled with the fact Lampard’s team are passive in central midfield and continue to look very decrompressed between the lines, points to an easy win for Pep Guardiola’s side. Man City will get exactly the contest they want, and may even rack up a big win to close the goal difference gap on Liverpool.
Chelsea v Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Thomas Tuchel is undefeated in three games against Liverpool as Chelsea manager thanks to his willingness to hold a deeper defensive line than usual and ease off on the press; while he and Jurgen Klopp are both keen on sharp vertical football played in the transitions, one big difference is that Tuchel isn’t as interested in a high press.
That means Chelsea gain a slight advantage by absorbing pressure and denying space in the middle of the park from within their compact midblock. Up against a high Liverpool line drawn further forward by Chelsea’s lack of pressing, this creates opportunities for Tuchel’s team to quickly play passes in behind for runners Timo Werner and Mason Mount.
That is what happened in each of their last three meetings and it should happen again. In a tight, tense, and claustrophobic affair, Chelsea’s capacity to get behind Liverpool may make the difference. However, Thiago Alcantara is fit to play Tuchel’s team for the first time, while Liverpool are in superb form at the moment. This one is too tight to call, although surely both sides will score.
Source: Betfair Premier League
