Alex Keble looks ahead to four of the weekend matches, predicting goals in Newcastle v Villa and more tips more dropped points for Man Utd…
“With Paul Pogba likely to be on the right of central midfield, and Marcus Rashford staying high on the right wing, United will not have the defensive bodies on that side to cope with Elyounoussi’s creativity.”
Man Utd v Southampton
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
With yet more reports coming out of the Man Utd dressing room of player unrest, clearly this team is not going to start playing with the intensity and togetherness Ralf Rangnick requires. In the 1-1 draw with Burnley they were again too flat and sluggish, and that is a bad attitude to be facing a Southampton team with the tactical sophistication Rangnick craves.
Saints will almost certainly out-battle United in all areas of the pitch, pressing high to put these hesitant United players under pressure and forcing themselves into the game. But in a tight contest with little space for either side – United are at least solid defensively – Saints hold a slight advantage on their left wing.
Mohamed Elyounoussi was excellent at Tottenham in midweek, drifting into the half-space as (Saints wingers are so good at doing in the 4-2-2-2). With Paul Pogba likely to be on the right of central midfield, and Marcus Rashford staying high on the right wing, United will not have the defensive bodies on that side to cope with Elyounoussi’s creativity.
Everton v Leeds
Saturday, 15:00
Everton already have all the hallmarks of a Frank Lampard team. In a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle United they were caught badly by trying to repeatedly pass out from the back, were too improvisational going forward, and left lots of space for Newcastle to counter-attack thanks to their poor positional play. Leeds United have all the attributes to repeat what Eddie Howe did.
Howe deserves credit for the aggression of his team; Joe Willock and Joelinton man-marked Andre Gomes and Allan, and the high press stopped Everton from being able to build through the lines. Winning the ball high also led directly to two of Newcastle’s goals. Lampard is likely to abandon the 3-4-3 for a system with three central midfielders on Saturday, but nevertheless they will find this tough.
It goes without saying that Marcelo Bielsa will enact a furious man-to-man pressing system to at least match what Newcastle did in midweek. They will also be able to counter-attack at speed and in sharp vertical lines, exposing Everton’s Lampardian problems both on the ball and off it. Leeds could win big.
Tottenham v Wolves
Sunday, 14:00
Wolves are not the most exciting team to watch this season. Bruno Lage has implemented a higher defensive line than Nuno Espirito Santo and wants to play more aesthetic football, but generally it has led to Wolves being far too slow in possession to create chances, while a ruthlessly organised defensive shape ensures their matches are always low scoring.
Tottenham are not looking adept at creating either, largely because Antonio Conte’s 3-4-3 starts from deep; their lack of pressing often means the front three seem isolated from the other seven, asking a lot of Lucas Moura and Heung-Min Son to carry the ball up the pitch as Harry Winks struggles to play forward passes. Wolves’ low block should stifle those forwards.
If we are to have a goal, it will probably come from Nelson Semedo on the right. Conte’s 3-4-3 does seem to leave a little too much space on the outside of the central midfield two and in front of his own wing-backs, as shown by Southampton’s second and third goals – scored from crosses played from this space. Semedo, advancing forward as Trincao pins Sergio Reguilon, will get chances.
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Aston Villa’s 3-3 draw with Leeds was an example of the downsides of Steven Gerrard’s comittment to progressive football. With Philippe Coutinho and Emiliano Buendia on the pitch as dual tens, and with Jacob Ramsey and John McGinn bursting forward, Villa were superb on the ball and created lots of chances – as they will again as they evade the hard pressing of this new-look Newcastle team.
Villa will be drawn into the end-to-end chaos, happily advancing into spaces behind the Newcastle midfield but also leaving too much room for Saint-Maximin and Joelinton to be dominant. Villa’s narrow 4-3-2-1 left them open on the flanks to Leeds’ wingers, and that should happen again, while Douglas Luiz is likely to be left with too much to do.
Tyrone Mings had a poor game in midweek and his head-to-head with Chris Wood will be intriguing, but Villa will look to target Newcastle’s left side – their weakest area with Matt Targett unavailable. Matty Cash can get forward a lot, ceating an even more open game. There will be plenty of goals in this one.
Source: Betfair Premier League
