Alex Keble looks ahead to four of the weekend’s Premier League games and predicts that Liverpool will drop points in the title race…
“The scale of his failure is Rangnick’s fault; he leaves United in a worse position than he found them and a team that stands for nothing at all.”
Newcastle v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:45
Live on BT Sport 1
The tactical strategy installed by Eddie Howe at Newcastle is exactly the kind of system that can slow Liverpool down and make them look vulnerable. It is a mixture of a compressed defensive system that refuses to press until the ball enters the middle third with sharp counter-attacks led by Allan Saint-Maximim. Liverpool hate playing teams who do that.
Camp too deep and Jurgen Klopp’s full-backs grind you down. Press high and Liverpool take advantage of the spaces. But the Howe method means the visitors could be dulled, while the aggression in the congested midfield should prevent Liverpool’s full-backs from getting space and may disconnect the front three from the rest of the team.
That is especially true if Klopp starts Diogo Jota up front, which seems likely given Roberto Firmino’s injury and the configuration used in midweek; Liverpool aren’t as fluid with Jota in the middle. Meanwhile the form of Bruno Guimaraes (three goals and an assist in his last four) gives Newcastle an extra momentum on the break. His controlling influence in the middle can help the hosts break the wave of pressure and attack that high defensive line.
Leeds v Man City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Some may theorise that Leeds United stand a chance of an upset here, but that does not seem likely despite the efforts of Jesse Marsch to normalise this team. Leeds no longer press in a man-to-man system, reducing the chaos as Leeds can now retain a basic off-the-ball shape rather than be pulled around the pitch, while they are happier these days to concede possession – hence just 51% in the 3-0 victory over Watford.
It is plausible this change of tactical system will be taken a step further against big teams (Marsch is yet to manage a ‘Big Six’ match), but more likely his players will let the game become stretched as they look to counter-attack in an ultra-direct fashion and in high numbers. That side of the Marcelo Bielsa system remains, and it is a very dangerous policy when facing Pep Guardiola’s team.
An optimist would say Rafinha could find joy, with Joao Cancelo likely to be caught ahead of the play and in central positions. But with Kevin de Bruyne bursting through, any madness at Elland Road can only help the significantly stronger team.
Back Man City to win with a -2 handicap at 3.259/4
Everton v Chelsea
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Frank Lampard will have been relatively happy with his team’s performance in a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool last weekend, and will be deploying the same strategy for the visit of Chelsea. Everton will be very defensive from the outset, sitting deep and frustrating from within a very low block; Lampard has realised this is his only hope of scraping points, after an initial experimentation with attacking football.
Chelsea’s form is difficult to read. It has been a while since they faced a team as defensive as Everton, and historically Thomas Tuchel is left throwing himself around the touchline as his team fail to play with the verticality and directness he is after. The chances of that happening are increased by his recent switch to a 3-4-1-2 formation, in which Timo Werner and Kai Havertz link as a strike partnership.
As Everton crowd their own box, Werner and Havertz – who prefer playing in the transition – may be stumped, leaving Mount to scurry about without making much of an impact. Chelsea are badly missing their first choice wing-backs, and without them can be both too predictable and too focused down the middle – where Everton will be blocking them.
Man Utd v Brentford
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Ralf Rangnick’s time at Man Utd has been startlingly bad. No matter how toxic the culture and poor the club’s decisions over the last 10 years, the scale of his failure is Rangnick’s fault; he leaves United in a worse position than he found them and a team that stands for nothing at all. Rarely has a side been so completely without direction or purpose.
That essential vacuousness makes Man Utd likely to lose to an organised and decisive Brentford team that will be sharper and more tactically coherent in all areas of the pitch. Thomas Frank’s 3-5-2 formation should easily hold the hosts’ attackers at arms’ length, before Christian Eriksen takes control of the game as Brentford play long balls up to the two strikers.
Brentford are an aggressive team that get the ball forward quickly, before playing in neater patterns in the final third. Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo will almost certainly out-fight the Man Utd defenders, bullying them into submission to get Eriksen into playmaking positions. An empty and meaningless United midfield won’t know how to handle Eriksen.
Source: Betfair Premier League
