Alex Keble looks ahead to four of the weekend matches, predicting Southampton will beat Everton and Man City to inflict more damage on Spurs…
“Everton will look to pass through the lines, getting higher and higher but likely struggling to break through such an organised system – and falling right into Hasenhuttl’s complex pressing traps.”
West Ham v Newcastle
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
The key feature of Newcastle United’s turnaround has been a newfound aggression through central midfield, where Eddie Howe’s 4-3-3 has started to work thanks to the confidence flowing through the team. Their victories against Everton and Aston Villa were defined by the same thing: hard pressing from Joelinton and Joe Willock winning the midfield battle and creating strong attacking transitions.
These are likely to happen again this weekend primarily because West Ham start in a low block but like to build through the lines. Declan Rice and Toma Soucek may be press-resistant, but the hosts’ two against Newcastle’s three should see them swarmed and harried just as Allan and Andre Gomes were for Everton. From here, in-form Allan Saint-Maximin can lead the charge against a West Ham defence that conceded three against all-action Leeds.
However, Newcastle’s three wins in a row have all been against more progressive teams, and consequently David Moyes’s more direct and counter-attacking approach could bring fresh problems for Howe. Newcastle’s higher line of engagement is threatened by the runs of Jarred Bowen and Michail Antonio. Expect goals at both ends.
Southampton v Everton
Saturday, 15:00
The difference between Everton’s 3-1 defeat to Newcastle and 3-0 victory over Leeds might seem confusing, but it is perfectly understandable: Leeds are far too chaotic and attack-minded, playing into Frank Lampard’s hands, while Newcastle’s targeted pressing of central midfield and sharp counter-attacks exploited Everton’s high line, commitment to attack, and defensive disorganisation.
Southampton are a lot more like the latter. Ralph Hasenhuttl will sit his team in a familiar 4-2-2-2 formation, holding a midblock that allows the Everton centre-backs time on the ball but surrounds the midfield pair of Allan and Donny van der Beek. Where Leeds emptied midfield to let the Dutchman run the game, Saints will crowd him out.
Everton will look to pass through the lines, getting higher and higher but likely struggling to break through such an organised system – and falling right into Hasenhuttl’s complex pressing traps. From here, sharp transitions should get behind a still error-prone Everton defence and lead the hosts to victory.
Man City v Tottenham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Antonio Conte’s comments in midweek have perhaps weakened his position and created a new sense of pessimism at the club after a run of three successive defeats. But his first-half substitution against Wolves last weekend pointed to a brighter future and a correction to a tactical system that is starting to look a little bit out-dated in the Premier League.
Starting in a low block, Spurs struggle to avoid getting pinned back in a division that is defined by hard pressing these days. By moving to a 4-2-3-1, with Dejan Kulusevski as a ten, Spurs had a link player to help prevent Harry Winks and Rodrigo Bentancur from getting stuck. Should Conte retain this formation then even in a deep block at the Etihad they stand a chance of counter-attacking successfully.
But it is far more likely that Spurs will get overwhelmed by Man City as they use their territorial advantage to suffocate the visitors. Confidence is low at Tottenham, and Pep Guardiola’s side should easily take advantage of the number of defensive errors occuring at Spurs recently.
Leeds v Man Utd
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Leeds United have conceded six goals in their last two games and are showing an increasing vulnerability to simple attacking patterns that show up Marcelo Bielsa’s wide-open, decompressed shape. This won’t be a particularly interesting game from a tactical perspective but it should be a very entertaining one, because the wildness of the hosts’ style opens them up to Man Utd’s individualism.
Ralf Rangick’s side are still at their best when given the space to act like an Ole Gunnar Solskjaer team, and here Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes should be able to swagger around a central midfield area that is virtually unmarked by this Leeds team. That alone should be enough to win the visiors the three points, although the Man Utd manager also holds a tactical advantage.
Man Utd earned their highest xG of the season against Southampton (2.99), largely thanks to Rangnick instructing his players to hit long balls over the top repeatedly. Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho got in behind many times and, along with Cristiano Ronaldo, the same thing will likely happen at Leeds.
Source: Betfair Premier League
