Manchester City v Newcastle: Magpies could be in for long afternoon at the Etihad

“Newcastle set up to frustrate Chelsea at home, and a draw would probably be the best-case scenario on Saturday. But morale is low and there’s no real reason to expect them to manage that”

Manchester City v Newcastle United
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

It didn’t take too long for Manchester City to hit the first minor bump on the road to what many assume will be another Premier League title. Wolves made life difficult for them at Molyneux a week ago, proving that a little bravery can go a long way when it comes to facing Pep Guardiola’s side. Yet back at the Etihad, where City have won 20 of their last 23 league games, the reigning champions will be confident of making amends.

Guardiola used a back three when Huddersfield came to town, and there’s a decent chance he’ll go the same way here, perhaps anticipating a defensive approach from Newcastle. That shift favours two players in particular: Benjamin Mendy thrives when afforded freedown to maraud down the left, and Sergio Agüero often enjoys having a strike partner to work off. But with only Kevin De Bruyne out, City have options aplenty all over the pitch.

The season may only just have begun, but already the mood music at Newcastle is familiar. Frustration with Mike Ashley, Rafa Benítez (understandably) unhappy, little to get excited about in the transfer market and an early cup exit… these are old patterns repeating. But there is a new flavour to add to the mix: rumours of a behind-the-scenes bust-up refuse to go away.

The men supposedly involved in that friction, Jamal Lascelles and Jonjo Shelvey, have missed the last two games, and it’s unclear whether they’ll return here. One player who will be back is Kenedy, who was unable to play against parent club Chelsea a week ago. Given his performances against Cardiff and Nottingham Forest, that might not be a good thing.

City are unbeaten in their last 21 top-flight games against Newcastle, winning 18, so it’s no surprise that they are [1.12] favourites here. At the Etihad, it’s nine wins in nine, and if the hosts perform like they did against Huddersfield they should have no issues.

Newcastle set up to frustrate Chelsea at home, and a draw would probably be the best-case scenario on Saturday. But morale is low and there’s no real reason to expect them to manage that.

This game finished 3-1 last season, and the four results before that (6-1, 5-0, 4-0, 4-0) underline the fact that City usually enjoy themselves against the Magpies. We expect that to continue here, which brings two options into play.

The first is backing City on the Asian handicap: -2.5 is available at [2.04]. But with Newcastle capable of sneaking a goal, like they did against Spurs and Chelsea, we prefer over 3.5 goals at [2.06].

Sergio Agüero has scored 14 goals in his 11 Premier League appearances against Newcastle. Eight of these goals have come in his last two home games against them. He’s only [1.56] to notch here, so our best option is using the Same Game Multi tool on the Sportsbook. You can back City to win, over 3.5 goals and two or more Agüero goals at [4.37].