Southampton look a big price to get something from their Premier League trip to Liverpool on Saturday night, argues Andy Schooler…
Liverpool v Southampton
Saturday 8 May, 20:15
Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event
I had a classic punter’s dilemma when looking at Saturday night’s Premier League game.
Am I convinced Southampton will get a result at Anfield? Far from it.
Do I think they are overpriced to get one? Certainly.
Red alert over struggles
There have been many disappointing aspects to Liverpool’s woeful title defence, perhaps most significantly the injuries which took hold almost from day one.
But arguably the worst of them has been their inability to deal with the league’s lower lights.
A look through their results shows they’ve played 11 games against teams currently in the bottom seven. They have won only two – and both of those were against rock-bottom Sheffield United, by far the worst of the stragglers.
In all bar those games against the Blades, they’ve failed to score more than one goal – this despite their injury crisis having only lightly touched their forward line. At the back, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet against the six of those sides who have already been to Anfield. Southampton will be the seventh.
The Reds had shown signs of saving their season, three straight wins having propelled them back into the top four. However, they’ve since conceded late equalisers against both Leeds and Newcastle so enter this match seven points outside the Champions League spots, albeit with a game in hand.
In short, they are in desperate need of a win and the pressure is very much on.
Saints chasing double
Southampton will arrive at Anfield seeking to complete a double over their hosts having won the reverse fixture 1-0 in January. They are 11.521/2 to achieve the feat.
That was one of just three wins in their last 21 league games but their early-season form, which put them top at one stage, is almost certain to keep them up. Victory here would guarantee safety.
Defensively the Saints haven’t been good enough. They’ve managed just one clean sheet since the St Mary’s win over Liverpool, and that came against Sheffield United.
On the road, they’ve conceded three or more on seven occasions.
Here they will again be without left-back Ryan Bertrand. Danny Ings is also on the injury list, while Takumi Minamino is ineligible to play against his parent club.
Still, they will have nine of the 11 which beat Liverpool in January to choose from and key defender Jannik Vestergaard is available after his red card picked up against Leicester last week was rescinded.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men will take great heart from that display – they fought tooth and nail to earn a 1-1 draw despite playing with 10 men for 80 minutes.
Such dogged defensive play may well stand them in good stead for this fixture given Liverpool’s inability to see off those around Southampton in the table.
The visitors played just one up away to Manchester City recently and that tactic may be redeployed here with Che Adams the likely striker. He’s delivered in previous games Ings has missed, scoring in three of the eight such league matches.
Hosts look too short
Clearly there are reasons to think Liverpool could and should win this but they are 1.3130/100 to do so which looks very skinny given what we’ve seen from them for much of this season.
That conclusion immediately makes Southampton-Draw in the double-chance market look chunky. 3.55 is the price in question.
Admittedly they have taken beatings at both Manchester clubs this season but they’ve also held Chelsea home and away and picked up points against Leicester and West Ham, both of whom sit above Liverpool in the table.
A small play is the tentative call.
Back Jack for card
A couple of other bets in the sub-markets are worth a mention.
Jack Stephens to be booked is tempting at 10/3.
The centre-back filled in for Bertrand on the left of the defence last week and looks set to keep his place there.
If that’s the case, he’ll be up against the always-lively Mo Salah, who will see this as an opportunity to gain ground in his Golden Boot race with Harry Kane. He has scored five goals in three games against Southampton at Anfield.
Salah is a tricky customer for any defender, let alone one playing out of his natural position and with Stephens having been carded in three of 16 starts this season (and eight of his last 29 altogether), a price of 10/3 looks fair enough.
Betfair offer a cash-out option on this bet so if Stephens doesn’t start or ends up in a different position when the teams are announced, you can simply get your money back.
Shoot with Stuart
The other props possibility involves Stuart Armstrong shots.
The Scot has managed three or more shots in seven of his last 15 games yet he’s 7/2 to land that here.
Given the level of opposition, perhaps two or more is more realistic – that’s 11/10 despite Armstrong having landed it in 11 of his last 16.
The key here will be where Armstrong plays.
He’s often been afforded an attacking role but in the past two games has played deeper and more centrally.
Despite this, he did manage two shots against Leicester last week, even though his side had just 10 men virtually all game, and there looks a good chance he’ll be afforded an attacking midfield role again if Hasenhuttl opts for one up top as runners from deep will be required in such a scenario.
Opta fact
Liverpool have won just six points from their last 30 available in Premier League home games (W1 D3 L6). They had only dropped 22 points from their previous 66 league games at Anfield (W55 D11 L0).
Source: Betfair Premier League
