Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Premier League clash between Leeds and Leicester with the Foxes looking a tempting price to high a goal-laden encounter.
“The Foxes have already landed this bet in three of their 10 league games, including two of their five away – at Brentford and Norwich, two sides who, like Leeds, sit in the bottom half of the table.”
Leicester won 4-1 at Elland Road last season and that result is a nod towards the best bet for this season’s renewal between Leeds and the Foxes.
There’s no doubt Leicester have disappointed during a busy start to the season which has included a tricky group in the Europa League. Taking in the back-end of last term, they’ve actually lost seven of their last 14 in the Premier League.
Defensive issues for Foxes
But the problems have been very much on the defensive side of their game with 17 goals conceded in 10 league games – the fifth worst record in the division.
Injuries to the likes of Wesley Fofana and the now-fit-again Jonny Evans haven’t helped and they are currently on a run of no clean sheet in nine.
Yet look at the attack and all seems fine.
Only Mo Salah has scored more goals than Jamie Vardy this season with the Foxes having netted a decent 15 in total so far.
Away from home, they’ve been particularly potent, scoring 2+ in four of their five this season.
Lengthen the study period and Leicester have found the net in their last 12 away league matches.
Illness struck down James Maddison and Harvey Barnes in midweek, which is a slight concern, but Vardy got a rest, only coming on as substitute against Spartak Moscow.
Ricardo Pereira and Wilfred Ndidi could return here too.
With Leicester possessing a strong squad these days – Ayoze Perez, Kelechi Iheanacho and Patson Daka are all other forward options for Brendan Rodgers – Leeds’ defence can be expected to be fully tested.
No side has given up more shots on goal than Leeds this season and they’ve already conceded 2+ this season against Manchester United, Everton, Liverpool and West Ham.
Leicester may sit further down the table then those teams but their attacking prowess suggests they are more than capable of joining the list.
False dawn for Leeds?
Critics will point out Leeds have tightened up a bit of late, during a run which has seen them take seven points from the last 12 available.
But that streak saw games against Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Norwich.
I don’t take that to mean they’ve found the magic formula at the back where they remain without German international Robin Koch and full-back Luke Ayling (pictured).
They’ve also yet to settle on a left-back with Stuart Dallas again there at Norwich last week with Junior Firpo having also been on the injured list. The former Barcelona man is expected to be available for this game though, along with Jamie Shackleton, an option on the opposite side.
At the other end, Patrick Bamford remains out. His goals are missed but so too is his ability to press from the front. Much, probably too much, rests of the shoulders of the in-form Raphinha.
Get 7/2 about favourites Leicester
Leeds can be backed at 2.8815/8 to win the game but given they are 0-2-4 in their six games against the current top 14, Leicester look worthy favourites (2.588/5), in spite of their defensive problems.
However, the stats I’ve mentioned suggest goals are on the cards and a much more attractive 4.57/2 can be had about a Leicester win if you throw in both teams to score.
The Foxes have already landed this bet in three of their 10 league games, including two of their five away – at Brentford and Norwich, two sides who, like Leeds, sit in the bottom half of the table.
Rodgers’ men also won 4-3 at Spartak in the Europa League, while they scored two goals in winning at Millwall in the EFL Cup.
They can outscore Leeds here and win an attractive game.
Between them, the pair have kept just two clean sheets in 20 league matches so far so it’s no surprise to see both teams to score as a single at 1.594/7.
Over 2.5 goals – a bet which has delivered in every Leicester away game so far – is at 1.674/6.
Those sort of prices look Bet Builder options only whereas I feel Leicester/BTTS represents some value at 7/2.
Shoot for glory with Tielemans
Looking at the sub-markets – and more potential Bet Builder options – it’s worth noting that Leeds have picked up 20+ booking points in nine of their 10 games so far. That’s at 4/7 this time and probably should land again given Darren England (19 yellows and one red in three games this season) has the whistle.
However, a tastier price comes in the player shots list where the 9/5 about Youri Tielemans having 3+ shots looks worth a try.
He’s managed to hit at least three shots in four of his last six Premier League games and only Vardy has had more shots in the competition for the Foxes.
Admittedly his higher shot tallies have largely been on home soil but here Leicester are facing a team who give up more shots than anyone else (15.8 per game) and so the Belgian may well get chances to drive into the box or let fly from distance, as is his wont.
Opta fact
Leicester have won four of their last five away league games against Leeds (L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 visits to Elland Road. The Foxes are looking to win three in a row at Leeds for the first time in their history.
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Source: Betfair Premier League
