Everton v Manchester United
Sunday 1st March, kickoff 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event
Carlo still on course for Europe following revival
Everton have been issued with a remit by Carlo Ancelotti to aim for Europe, and a run of six games without defeat in Premier League matches at Goodison Park (W4 D2) has made the Europa League a distinct possibility. Their last loss on home soil came at the hands of Norwich – and that was the game that subsequently cost Marco Silva his job.
Before last week’s 3-2 defeat at Arsenal, the Italian had called for his team to make “a statement”. Some chaotic defending from Mikel Arteta’s side helped the Toffees to a couple of goals in a rather frenetic game, but it wasn’t enough to give Ancelotti his wish. The famous eyebrow was raised in the MOTD2 interview with reference to the defending, but offensively, they were very good.
There was a distinct shift in Everton’s pattern of play in that, with a willingness to play out from the back. It will be interesting to see if Ancelotti takes that approach for Sunday against a more counter-attacking team. His record since taking the job now stands at 17 points from nine games with two losses.
The hosts lie in 11th position.
Fernandes signing has made all the difference
The Manchester United fans have started to sing “Bruno, Bruno”. And why not? Another star performance in midweek against Club Brugge got the Red Devils up and running as they thrashed the Belgians, and it was Bruno Fernandes who ran the show again. It was his second man of the match display in a matter of a week, and I cannot recall a player having made such an impact on a team for a quite a while.
I’ve always admired an old fashioned 10, a player that can sit in the middle and set all the attacks in motion. I remember seeing Chilean midfielder David Pizarro play for Inter against Crystal Palace in a pre-season game many years ago. He barely moved from the centre circle, yet conducted the entire match with his passing and control of tempo. Fernandes is doing all of that and more, and the stats don’t lie. He has had more shots (10), provided more assists (2), and created more chances (7) than any other United player.
He wasn’t the only one signing “Bruno, Bruno” in midweek, as my colleague Kevin Hatchard tipped him to score.
Ole Gunnar Solksjaer‘s team are now seven matches unbeaten – which is their longest streak of the campaign. They have also won their last two Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 5-0. They last won three in a row without conceding in January 2018.
The Reds are up to 5th.
To reference another of my Betting.Betfair colleagues; Mike Norman previewed Manchester United’s match at Chelsea recently, and highlighted that the [4.70] on offer for Solksjaer’s team was far too high. It was a good shout from Mike, and whilst we haven’t quite got that price at [2.98], they are the outsider of the two, and nudging 2/1 is pretty tempting.
A bet simply comes down to price sometimes. If United were around [2.20], I would have left them alone, but they are big enough to play, and it also brings into the equation the Draw No Bet at [2.14].
I suspect Ancelotti will react from the sloppy defensive display at Arsenal and tighten up for this, but that won’t be a bad thing as United are a better team utilising their pace on the counter-attack. And with Fernandes pulling the strings, they finally have some creativity in the side.
The visitors will be hoping in-form striker Anthony Martial recovers from a muscle injury, whilst Everton may welcome back Theo Walcott. Left-back Lucas Digne missed the Arsenal match and is a doubt.
Everton’s approach makes 2.5 predictions tricky, so turn to Bruno
Both teams recorded decent xG figures in their respective Premier League matches recently. Everton’s process was 2.4 against Arsenal (who surprisingly were 1.38), whilst United’s 2.86 xG against Watford was more like it. However, the Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 Goals prices are very tight at [1.90] and [2.06].
This is clouded by several issues. Firstly, Everton have scored in ther last nine league games under Ancelotti, with only Liverpool on a longer run (36). Against that however is the Red Devils’ record of conceding just one in six in all competitions.
The Toffees have conceded 14 at home with United shipping in 17 on their travels, but the Old Trafford club looked ever so resilient and organised last Monday at Chelsea.
In short, I am leaning towards Under 2.5, but not enough to make a bet.
I like the To Score market and there are several contenders that should be popular. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored seven in his last nine, whilst Martial needs one more league goal to equal his career-best 11 in 2015-16. However, the [3.75] on offer for Fernandes is too big. And whilst I suspect some of that price would have been snapped up by the time of kickoff, anything around [3.0] for a player bristling with so much confidence is worth taking.
His penalties aren’t bad either.
Alan Dudman’s Premier League P&L
2019/20: -6.49
Source: Betfair Premier League
