Alex Keble looks ahead to the four midweek Champions League matches, predicting Atletico Madrid will relish the chance to embrace their old identity at the Etihad…
“But games like this, up against European royalty who love to dominate possession, minds will be focused and Simeone will be able to deploy his singular vision.”
Man City v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The persistent problem for Man City this season has been working out how to unlock a compact defensive blockade without a striker making the right runs to stretch the opponent out of shape. Along with Pep Guardiola doubling down on nimble playmakers rather than direct runners in behind, this can lead Man City to stale possession, as we saw in games against Southampton and Crystal Palace.
That is why Atletico Madrid are the worst possible team for Man City to have drawn in the last eight. Diego Simeone’s side are in yet another identity crisis currently, as they try to open up a bit more – in line with their new super-club status – despite all of Simeone’s instincts being to remain under-dogs. It can leave them confused, defensively shaky, and easy to beat in La Liga.
But games like this, up against European royalty who love to dominate possession, minds will be focused and Simeone will be able to deploy his singular vision. Atletico will be allowed to frustrate City and play on the back foot. They should hold tight, keep Man City at arms’ length, and take a draw back to Spain.
Benfica v Liverpool
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Liverpool should win this at a canter. Benfica, third in Liga Portugal and with just one win in their last three, have had a very straightforward run to the last eight of the Champions League. The only difficult games they have played all season were against Bayen Munich in the group stage – and they were beaten by an aggregate score of 9-2.
This is an open and attacking team centred on driving down the flanks through their quick wingers and flying full-backs; they are not tactically prepared to be dominated in possession and territory, and so a well-rested Liverpool should frankly tear them apart in both legs. But of particular significance is Benfica’s left.
Kingsley Coman was dominant from the right flank in the 5-2 defeat, while Benfica left-back Alejandro Grimaldo is an important player chiefly for his attacking output (10 goal contributions in the league this season). He is highly vulnerable on that side to the returning Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah, who together should ensure a comfortable first-leg win for Jurgen Klopp.
Chelsea v Real Madrid
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The main reason for Chelsea’s surprise 4-1 defeat to Brentford on Saturday was not the club’s off-field issues affecting the players, but rather Thomas Tuchel’s decision to start in an unfamiliar 4-3-3. Not only was his defence generally more disorganised, it was a bad decision because Brentford’s own 3-5-2 gave them a numerical advantage in defence and up front.
Surely Tuchel will reinstate the 3-4-3 for this one, which means a more balanced setup and a calmer match. Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid do not take many risks in knock-out matches, and indeed for long periods they will be happy to shuffle across in their lines, slowing Chelsea down and hoping to return to Madrid with a 0-0 draw.
That should make for a tense match, to be decided by one moment of quality. This is likely to come from Kai Havertz who, dropping off the front, can help overwhelm an ageing Real Madrid central midfield with his sharp one-touch football. If Chelsea are to win, they need to cram the number ten space with bodies and take advantage of rare lapses in concentration.
Villarreal v Bayern Munich
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Unai Emery is a very good cup manager because his teams are all about making use of the attacking transition. He instructs his teams to hold a low block and be prepared to break at speed in high numbers, dribbling vertically through the lines to catch his opponents out. This is particularly effective when Villarreal have the ball in their own half and, drawing the other team forward with their build-up play, burst suddenly into life.
Julien Nagelsmann’s Bayern Munich are theoretically vulnerable to this. They play a slow game of possession recycling, which means they could well be lured into Villarreal’s trap and leave room for the hosts to counter-attack into. The threat is particularly acute because the Spanish side are firmly second favourites, and yet the form guide does not tell the whole story.
Villarreal have lost each of their last two in La Liga – but they held 59% possession in both games. Allowed to play like a coiled spring on Wednesday, Emery will much prefer the challenge of Bayern, although the sheer quality in the Bayern attack still makes the German side favourites. It will be a game of many chances at either end, with Bayern ultimately outscoring the hosts.
Source: Betfair Premier League
