Watford have more potent attacking weapons than Burnley and can outscore their relegation rivals in Tuesday evening’s rearranged fixture, says Dave Tindall…
“Looking at Watford’s two away victories, they won 3-1 at Norwich and 5-2 at Everton, showing that shipping a goal didn’t ultimately cost them the three points.”
Burnley playing catch up after postponements
A win for Norwich over Everton and a home point for Newcastle at the weekend left the Premier League table making grim reading for Burnley.
They’re bottom of the pile and have still only managed a single win in the top flight this term.
The light at the end of the tunnel is that Burnley have games in hand: an awful lot of them after five fixtures, including this one, were lost to issues around the pandemic.
Burnley have played three fewer games than second-bottom Newcastle and have four in hand over Norwich. But at their current points per game ratio, those extra matches would only equate to a couple of points
That’s reflected in the latest relegation betting which shows Burnley as 1.564/7 second favourites to go down.
It’s worth just reminding ourselves when exactly Sean Dyche’s men have played a game in the last month or so. Their biggest gap came after a 0-0 home draw with West Ham on December 12. They had to wait 18 days until losing 3-1 at Old Trafford and have followed that with a 3-1 reverse at Leeds on January 2 and a 2-1 FA Cup home defeat at the hands of Championship side Huddersfield on January 8.
Ranieri delighted to stop the rot
After six straight Premier League defeats and an FA Cup hammering on top of that, no wonder Watford boss Claudio Ranieri celebrated so vigorously when Joao Pedro headed in an 87th-minute equaliser at Newcastle on Saturday.
Not only did it stop the rot but it prevented Newcastle going above Watford in the table. It meant the Hornets ended the weekend fixtures a point clear of the drop zone and with two games in hand over Norwich and one over Newcastle.
That said, the market still expects them to go down. Watford are 1.618/13 third favourites on the exchange’s relegation market, with Newcastle the side expected to avoid the drop.
The draw at Newcastle was a decent one, especially as they have players away at the African Cup of Nations: Ismaila Sarr, William Troost-Ekong, Adam Masina and Imran Louza.
Ranieri played three new signings – Hassane Kamara, Samir and Edo Kayembe – in the starting XI against Newcastle so it was a decent result given all the changes.
“I hope this point would give them more electricity or confidence to believe in themselves,” said Ranieri later.
Burnley are 2.285/4 favourites to win the game, with Watford 3.505/2 and The Draw 3.4012/5.
It gives punters the exact same question they had with Newcastle: even though the opposition aren’t the best, can you back a side to win at home at just north of evens when they’ve only won a single match all season.
I said ‘yes’ when previewing the Newcastle v Watford game and won’t be making the same mistake here!
In truth, it seems easier to refuse a bet on Burnley. Chris Wood, so long the senior striker at the club, has left while top scorer Maxwell Cornet is away at the African Cup of Nations. The hosts were already struggling to find the net but where are the goals going to come from now?
By contrast, Watford have Emmanuel Dennis – the Premier League’s joint-fourth highest scorer in their ranks – while Josh King and Pedro also offer an attacking threat. King takes penalties and Pedro now has two in two having also scored in the FA Cup loss at Leicester.
Only seven teams have scored more away goals this season that Watford so if they can take their chances the game is there for them.
The obvious problem is at the other end. Ranieri’s side haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 29 Premier League matches when adding up this season’s 19 failures and concessions from their previous top-flight campaign.
However, against weaker teams, it’s an ailment they can overcome. Looking at their two away victories, they won 3-1 at Norwich and 5-2 at Everton, showing that shipping a goal didn’t ultimately cost them the three points.
In some ways, this looks an obvious candidate for Under 2.5 goals, even though the price is just 1.768/11.
But how about the 7.413/2 for Watford to win and both teams to score? It’s ambitious maybe but the rewards are big if they repeat the storylines of Carrow Road and Goodison Park.
If you think both sides will register but want to keep it much simpler, Both teams to Score is worth a look at 1.8910/11.
Opta stat
Burnley have won just two of their 12 Premier League home games on Wednesdays (D5 L5) – 1-0 against Man Utd in August 2009 (their first ever victory in the competition) and 3-2 against Aston Villa in January last season.
Source: Betfair Premier League
