Southampton make the short trip along the south coast to Brighton on Sunday and Ben Steele expects goals to be at a premium…
“The home side has never won a Premier League game between these two sides (five draws and four away wins)”
Following the departure of Sean Dyche from Burnley last week Brighton and Southampton now employ two of the six longest serving managers in the Premier League, and both clubs certainly benefit from that relative continuity.
During Graham Potter’s tenure Brighton have become one of the league’s most well organised teams in the division, only the current top five have conceded fewer than the 10th placed Seagulls, but they do struggle to score goals themselves.
Despite a few eye catching results in recent weeks Potter’s style leaves very little room for error, they have scored just 29 times this term. Sunday’s opponents certainly have a differing style but, this season in particular, are routinely involved in close encounters.
Ralph Hassenhuttl has presided over 12 draws this season as well as a league high 10 games that have been decided by a single goal. The game at St Mary’s in December saw a 98th minute Neal Maupay equaliser as the Saints failed to hold on to a first half lead and a bizarre quirk of this fixture continued.
The home side has never won a Premier League game between these two sides (five draws and four away wins) so I’m backing Southampton to win and Under 2.5 goals in the game @ 6/1, which offers great value in a game that looks set to go right to the wire.
Along with the lack of home wins, Brighton v Southampton features another surprising statistical anomaly. According to Opta, 24% of all goals in Premier League matches between these two sides have come from the penalty spot, more than any other PL matchup with more than 20 goals scored.
In the event that trend continues both keepers, Robert Sanchez and Fraser Forster, have been in decent enough form and may well fancy their chances of playing the role of hero and saving a penalty. But Forster is certainly more likely to see that dream become a reality.
Neal Maupay would likely be the man to step up for the hosts, and is 7/5 to score anytime but he has been inconsistent from the spot in recent season. Alternatively James Ward-Prowse has scored all four of his spot kicks for Saints this season and would expect to add to that tally if asked to step up again. At 4/1 anytime and 10/1 to be first goalscorer the Southampton captain is well worth a look.
With his penalty prowess and constant threat from free kicks James Ward-Prowse is an incredible asset to Southampton but it is not just his goal scoring that makes him so important.
The England international’s pinpoint set piece delivery has turned Hasenhuttl’s side into one of the best teams in the league from dead ball situations. With Jan Bednarek and Mohammad Salisu coming forward from defence and the likes of Che Adams and Armando Broja both posing an aerial threat Ward-Prowse certainly has a number of targets.
While I expect the game to be a tight affair there is definitely value in a James Ward-Prowse Bet Builder of a goal and an assist at anytime in the game @ 19.0. There is an argument that the Saints skipper will be the best player on the pitch on Saturday and if he can stamp his authority on the game all the better for Hasenhuttl and his men.
Source: Betfair Premier League
