Brighton v Chelsea
Monday 14 September, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports
Lallana a positive but still low on strikers
Those who have been reading betting,betfair over the last couple of weeks will probably have spotted that Brighton were one of my tips to be relegated.
The main area of concern was a distinct lack of goals and I’m not sure they’ve really addressed this area over the summer. Neil Maupay had a decent season, scoring 10 goals, and Aaron Connolly (who admittedly didn’t play too many minutes) scored just three so I’m not sure too many defenders will have sleepless nights over facing these two.
Brighton did however make a very shrewd signing in Adam Lallana, who at his age isn’t good enough to be getting too much game time at Liverpool, but is still more than good enough to be turning out every week for a side like Brighton. For my money he’ll do a better job as the team’s playmaker than Aaron Mooy, who I always felt was a little too pedestrian.
Another interesting signing is Ben White, from Leeds. He played just about every match in their promotion-winning campaign and may well slip straight into the side now that Shane Duffy has gone on loan to Celtic.
Big season coming up for Blues
Chelsea might have a really good season, for my money favourites to be ‘best of the rest’ (I think Liverpool and Man City will once again be in a league of their own again) and capable of a decent run in the Champions League and maybe even in contention for one of the domestic cups.
They were already pretty good last time out but the signings they’ve made are exactly in the areas where they needed strengthening. Thiago Silva may not necessarily play on Monday but he’ll soon become the leader of the defence, Kai Havertz will look to play in the sort of role Frank Lampard himself did for all those years, while Hakim Ziyech (another who is unlikely to feature this weekend) will provide some trickery on the wings.
The jewel in the crown might well be Timo Werner, though. Able to play through the middle or out wide, his pace and goals might just be what take Chelsea to the next level this season. Especially when you think that players like Mason Mount and Christian Pulisic will be much better for having a full season of Premier League football under their belts.
Price on away win justified
Chelsea are [1.65] to win and that looks about right. Not only do they look far stronger in terms of the personnel who will be out on the pitch, even accounting for a few absences, but their record against Brighton is excellent as Opta remind us: nine wins and one draw.
I’m sure there will be a few layers of that price just hoping it might take a couple of games until some of those new faces at Chelsea find their feet and who are relying on Brighton’s normally solid home record to get something from the game. But I’m not so sure. However, we can do better than just go for the straight win.
Just 36% of Brighton’s home games last season went over 2.5 goals but, it’s worth noting that four of their last five at home last season went ‘overs’ anyway. Interestingly, three of those four games were comprehensive losses against Man Utd, Liverpool and Man City, perhaps a sign that they can somewhat fall apart against the very best sides.
As for Chelsea, 84% of their away games last season had at least three goals but then again, it’s a pretty mixed bunch in terms of head-to-head results between the two: over the last six, three went ‘overs’ and three went ‘unders’. The preference would be for ‘overs’ because Chelsea have the ability top score plenty with their new resources if they get going but then again, it’s favourite at [1.8] anyway.
So if Think Chelsea will win and that there might be a few goals in the game, what’s the best way of playing it?
I’m going to go with Timo Werner to score in a Chelsea win. The Germany international scored 28 league goals last season and just to prove he didn’t get rusty over the summer, he then netted against Spain no less, in the Nations League last week.
It may well be that he plays out wide on Monday with possibly Oivier Giroud through the middle but even if that’s the case, it doesn’t necessarily affect his chances of grabbing a goal here. Go with Werner to get a goal in a Chelsea win as part of a same-game multi-bet. It comes to 2.5.
Source: Betfair Premier League
