Wednesday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

Atalanta v Young Boys
17:45
Live on BT Sport 1

The other two teams in Manchester United’s group go head to head in Italy. Can Young Boys pull off another surprise result and stay top of Group F?

Dan Fitch says: “Atalanta are unbeaten in four (W2 D2). At the weekend they drew 2-2 away at Inter and are now seventh in Serie A after six games (W3 D2 L1).

“They also drew 2-2 on the road in their first game in Group F, coming from behind to level up at the Europa League holders Villarreal. Atalanta have made it through to the knockout stages of the Champions League in each of the last two seasons and will put themselves in a strong position to progress again, if they can win this one.

“The hosts should be claiming victory here. Young Boys may have beaten Manchester United, but that was largely down to having a man advantage and the poor tactical decisions of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

“That’s not to say that Young Boys can’t cause any problems. They have scored in ten consecutive games, while Atalanta have conceded in four of their last five. A home win and both teams to score can be backed at 2.89/5.”

Dan’s bet: Back Atalanta to beat Young Boys and both teams to score at 2.89/5

Man Utd v Villarreal
20:00
Live on BT Sport

Manchester United started their Champions League campaign with a defeat last time out so they need a win against the side that beat them in the Europa League last season.

Paul Higham says: “Five meetings all ending in a draw, four of them 0-0, with Villarreal drawing with everyone this season and coming off the back of a 0-0 at Real Madrid? You just have to fancy the draw here at very tempting price of 4.67/2.

“Man Utd are big 1.4740/85 favourites but Solskjaer’s Champions League record is a red flag, as is United’s record of no wins in their last seven games against Spanish teams in this competition.

“Villarreal have a fine record in Europe and are currently on the longest unbeaten streak in the major European competitions with no defeats in their last 16 across the Champions League and Europa League.

“After back-to-back defeats at Old Trafford and with possible injuries in defence for Man Utd, 7.613/2 on a Villarreal victory looks a big price considering all those factors.”

Paul’s bet: Back the draw in Man Utd v Villarreal @ 4.67/2

Juventus v Chelsea
20:00
Live on BT Sport 2 & BT Sport Extra

Champions League winners Chelsea are 8.415/2 to retain their crown ahead of their trip to Turin to face Juventus.

Mark O’Haire says: “Juventus and Chelsea have met on four occasions in Champions League history, sharing a solitary success each and playing out two draws with the away side yet to table a triumph. The most recent duels came in the 2012/13 group stage with the Old Lady running out 3-0 victors in Turin as the Blues failed to qualify from the pool.

“Juventus are yet to produce a performance of note since Allegri’s return to the hot-seat. The Bianconeri brushed outsiders Malmo aside, and have seen off Spezia and Sampdoria in Serie A, yet were beaten by Napoli and involved in a bland stalemate with Milan. The hosts’ defensive struggles cannot also be ignored here.

“Chelsea have faced difficult fixtures so far in 2021/22 in the Premier League, including trips to Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs, as well as hosting City in Saturday’s defeat. The Blues haven’t appeared as imperious as they can be since the international break, although they do boast a W12-D3-L3 record in Champions League matches and against fellow Big Six outfits under Tuchel.”

Mark’s bet: Back Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2.3411/8

Benfica v Barcelona
Wednesday 29 September, 20:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

Barcelona were defeated 3-0 at home by Bayern Munich in their opening match in Group E so a tough trip to Benfica is a huge game for them.

Dan Fitch says: “Benfica made a decent start to their Champions League campaign, with an away draw with Dynamo Kiev. They are top of the Primeira Liga, having won all seven of their games and will now fancy their chances of making the last-16, much more than would have been the case when the draw for Group E was originally made.

“Anyone who saw the performances against Bayern, Granada and Cadiz, would doubt the right of Barcelona to be favourites. The odds should be much closer.

“Benfica have scored at least two goals in ten of their twelve games this season. Their last two games have seen them win 3-1 against Boavista and then again by the same scoreline against Vitoria Guimaraes. You can back Benfica to score over 1.5 goals at 2.56/4.”

Dan’s bet: Back Benfica to score over 1.5 goals against Barcelona at 2.56/4

Barnsley v Nottingham Forest
19:45
Live on Sky Sports Arena

Both Barnsley and Nottingham Forest are struggling at the wrong end of the Championship table ahead of Wednesday night’s televised meeting but the visitors have a new manager with plenty of ideas.

Mark O’Haire says: “Barnsley have enjoyed recent meetings with Forest at Oakwell, bagging four wins from the last five head-to-head here in the Championship (W4-D0-L1). Three of the most recent four saw the Tykes silence the Tricky Trees here, and Barnsley have actually kept clean sheets in their past four fixtures with Forest across all venues and competitions.

“Having upset the odds to seal a top-six finish under Valerien Ismael last season, Barnsley 2.588/5 have struggled to reach the same heights in 2021/22. The Tykes have won the Expected Goals (xG) battle just once in their nine outings, and managed to score multiple goals just once (W1-D5-L3). The hosts’ also rank rock-bottom for xG ratio.

“Nottingham Forest 3.4012/5 have collected four points since Chris Hughton’s departure, and know victory at Oakwell will move them out of the bottom-three. The visitors have toiled in the final-third this term and are yet to produce an xG figure above 1.00, whilst matches involving Forest have featured the lowest overall xG average at just 1.77 per-game.”

Mark’s bet: Back Nottingham Forest Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals at 1.758/11