Wednesday Championship Tips: Bristol City too strong for tame Tigers

“Hull may have been a tad unlucky on Saturday not to take all three points and they did show some of the fight I suggested might be lacking, but that they took the lead in the 85th minute and couldn’t see the game out is symptomatic of a side that has forgotten how to win.”

Bristol City [1.91] v Hull [4.7]; The Draw [3.65]

I put the weight of my ‘Hull at a terrible side‘ convictions behind their weekend opponents Preston at the weekend and disappointingly fell foul of a 1-1 draw. That doesn’t stop me from going back in against the Tigers when they take on Bristol City on Wednesday evening.

“It’s just fine margins,” said Hull boss Nigel Adkins. “We hit the woodwork three times and their goalkeeper has made a lot of good saves. The players are working hard, we got a point and we’ve got to keep going.”

Hull may have been a tad unlucky on Saturday not to take all three points and they did show some of the fight I suggested might be lacking, but that they took the lead in the 85th minute and couldn’t see the game out is symptomatic of a side that has forgotten how to win.

Away from home the Hull have only beaten fellow strugglers Rotherham this season and have lost their last four matches, scoring only one goal and conceding eight.

Bristol City are enjoying a far more positive time of things, sitting in 10th in the table and fresh from an impressive 1-0 away win over Brentford last time out thanks to an 89th minute volley from Nicolas Eliasson.

That victory ended a five game winless streak and manager Lee Johnson recognised the result’s importance: “We maybe deserved a couple of wins in that five … we have 11 out so this is big because it’s a very difficult game, but one that will give is a great deal of confidence.”

In the last four encounters between Bristol City and Hull there have been over 2.5 goals scored with the Tigers grabbing at least two of them, but with under 2.5 goals scored in Hull’s last four league matches, and City not prolific either (four goals in last five In the Championship), it would make sense to think that the way into this game is by backing unders on the goals.

But be careful. These two teams have recent chemistry with their two league meetings last season yielding 15 goals – City winning 3-2 at the KCOM and a 5-5 draw at Ashton Gate.

If you’re after goal scorers, Hull striker Jarrod Bowen has scored four of the last five goals his team have scored and he is 3/1 to add to that tally. The Robins’s goals are much harder to pin down with their last seven coming from different players.

That said I’m keeping my picks simple this Wednesday and taking Bristol City to win at [1.91].

West Brom [2.08] v Derby [3.95]; The Draw [3.65]

I’m finding Frank Lampard’s Derby side a difficult one to back, or side against. A Derby supporting friend said, ahead of their 2-1 win over table-topping Sheffield United on Saturday, that he wouldn’t have been surprised to see them get hammered or win easily. As it happened neither humping or thumping were true with the Rams’ victory extremely hard fought.

But West Brom are no pushovers as they bid to get back to the top flight at the first attempt and Darren Moore’s side will be smarting after being denied a goal for the first time in eight games last weekend.

They suffered their first defeat in eight games too when losing 1-0 in Wigan, but a return home should provide the perfect remedy. At The Hawthorns they have won five-in-a-row, scoring at least two goals each time.

Moore is missing Jake Livermore who was sent off against The Latics, but will call on fellow former England international Gareth Barry to replace him in midfield.

With Over 2.5 landing in the last five West Brom home games, Lampard will try and keep things tight. But Derby have won only one of their last 14 away league matches against West Brom (D4, L9) and despite Frank’s best efforts, and I can see Derby scoring, the play in this match has to be West Brom and over 3.5 match goals at [5.44]. It’s just what The Baggies do!

Leeds [1.45] v Ipswich [9.2]; The Draw [4.8]

The Marco Bielsa bubble hasn’t burst at Elland Road, but Leeds’ rampant start to their Championship season has taken a couple of steps back in recent weeks.

After being unbeaten for the first eight games (5W, 3D) the last five matches have seen Leeds win only once, draw twice and lose twice, with their defeat to Blackburn on Saturday seeing them slip to fourth in the table.

Bielsa’s side are however still scoring goals and the visit of struggling Ipswich could be the perfect tonic.

The Tractor Boys have leaked at least two goals in their last five away matches in the league and have only picked up one win in their last 13 away games. In fact Ipswich haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 14 league matches in Yorkshire.

Pablo Hernandez looks likely to replace Tyler Roberts in attack for the home side with Kemar Roofe reverting to being the lone striker. Swedish defender Pontus Jansson may miss the game with the birth of his child, but Luke Ayling returns to the defence after serving a one game ban.

Leeds should win this game and recent history is on their side. They have lost only one of their last nine league meetings with Ipswich and I don’t see that trend altering.

Leeds and Over 2.5 Match Goals at [2.19] is enough to tempt, but I’m getting greedy and adding in Roofe to score in the game to boost the price to a tasty [3.34}.

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*You can follow James on Twitter – @football_badger