Get our football writers’ expert tips as Manchester City return to Champions League action and Manchester United take on Brighton in the Premier League…
“The stats suggest Sporting could be good for a goal here. They scored 14 in six matches in the Champions League Group stages and have 43 from 22 games on the domestic front.”
Sporting Lisbon 12.5 v Manchester City 1.3130/100, the Draw 6.25/1
20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Sporting Lisbon host Manchester City and our previewer thinks the Portuguese side could well get on the scoresheet.
Jamie Pacheco says: “It would be absolutely pointless for Sporting to try and play for 0-0 here.
“Even if they managed it against all odds they’d still have to go to City and avoid defeat to go through. Which would probably be about a 10.09/1 chance when that game came around.
“So, I think Sporting may be braver and more ambitious than many might think.
“And the stats suggest they could be good for a goal here. They scored 14 in six matches in the Champions League Group stages and have 43 from 22 games on the domestic front. So in both cases, they’re very close to averaging two goals a game.
“And you’d have to go back 22 games to find the last time they didn’t score; a 1-0 away loss to Dortmund in late September.”
Jamie’s bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.0621/20
Dan Fitch also looks at City’s trip to Portugal in the first of his two Bet Builder wagers for the Champions League on Tuesday.
Dan says: “There have been league losses for Sporting this year against the likes of Santa Clara and Braga, so it’s hard to make a case for Sporting avoiding defeat here. That means we can start our Bet Builder with a Manchester City victory at 1/4 on the Sportsbook.
“Sporting Lisbon have scored in all 17 of their home games this season, but as City’s defence are performing well this season, over 2.5 goals at 4/7 is a more sensible addition than both teams to score.
“To those two bets we’re going to add one another cautious pick. Joao Cancelo averages 2.3 shots-per-game, which is second only to Kevin De Bruyne in the City squad.
“Cancelo is 1/12 to take one or more shot during the game, which sees the Bet Booster odds rise to 2.0521/20.”
Dan’s Bet Builder: Back City/over 2.5 goals/Cancelo one shot or more @ 2.0521/20
PSG 2.0811/10 v Real Madrid 3.814/5, the Draw 3.8514/5
20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
The La Liga leaders travel to the Ligue 1 leaders for a mouthwatering last-16 first leg in the Champions League…
James Eastham says: “Are the odds on a PSG win justified? The short answer is no. There are still concerns about Paris’ inability to dominate games, to control matches territorially, and their over-reliance on Kylian Mbappe.
“Paris hope to welcome back Idrissa Gueye for his first start since returning triumphantly from the African Cup of Nations. His presence alongside Marco Verratti in midfield will be crucial.
“Yet Real look strong in midfield, where Toni Kroos and Luka Modric are set to line-up alongside Casemiro. With those three working as a unit, there’s a good chance Paris’ supply line to their forwards – Angel Di Maria, Lionel Messi and Mbappe – will be stifled.
“In all competitions this season, Paris’ record is W23-D8-L3. In 2022 their record is W5-D2-L0. Those are fine figures, but PSG have rarely played well, and rarely faced opponents with as much experience as Real have in their ranks.
“In manager Carlo Ancelotti, Real have a wily European strategist, and Real are a solid W6-D2-L1 in all competitions since the start of the year. They may not be the European force they once were, but they have a huge amount of experience, and look capable of frustrating PSG.”
James’ bet: Lay PSG @ 2.111/10
Dan shares his second Bet Builder of the night with a wager on a young French world-beater to fire for PSG in the Spanish capital.
Dan says: “Since Karim Benzema was injured, Real have scored just one goal in their last three games. The big question is whether Benzema will return to face PSG, with the player back in training. If he doesn’t, then a low scoring game seems likely, but if he does, Madrid’s potency will receive a major boost.
“All reports suggest that Benzema’s potential involvement is viewed as something of a gamble. Adding under 3.5 goals to the Bet Builder at 9/20, therefore seems sensible, with Benzema unlikely to be 100%, even if he does play.
“To that we will add Mbappe to have two or more shots on target at 5/6. Mbappe averages four shots-per-game, so this seems a little generous. Combining these two bets gives odds of 3.55/2.”
Dan’s Bet Builder: Back under 3.5 goals/Mbappe to have two or more shots on target @ 3.55/2
Man Utd 1.824/5 v Brighton 5.04/1, the Draw 3.9
20:15
Will Manchester United end their run of 1-1 draws when they host Brighton in the Premier League on Tuesday. Our previewer isn’t convinced by Ralf Rangnick’s side…
Andrew Atherley says: “It is a sign of the drop in United’s standing that they are as big as 1.794/5 for the win. In past years that would have been unthinkable against a mid-table side at Old Trafford.
“One goal has become United’s default setting, having been their score in nine out of 13 games in all competitions under Rangnick (and one of the exceptions was nil), and that is bound to hurt their win chances.
“Four games under Rangnick have been won 1-0 but five have ended 1-1, and in the Premier League those draws have included matches against relegation strugglers Newcastle (before their buying spree) and Burnley.
“United’s higher-scoring games under Rangnick have been 3-1 wins against Burnley and Brentford (both lower-placed sides) and a 2-2 draw at Aston Villa, but it has become difficult to fancy them to score freely despite the attacking talent at Rangnick’s disposal.
“Scoring freely against Brighton would be a problem even if United were in better form. Potter’s side have kept seven clean sheets and conceded just one goal in a further 11 matches – the combined figure of 18 games is bettered only by Manchester City (22 with nil or one conceded), Chelsea (21) and Wolves (20).”
Andrew’s bet: Back Brighton on draw no bet @ 3.814/5
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
