The most valuable football match in the world is on Saturday but it’s not the Champions League final, although we’ve got you covered with a bumper batch of recommend bets for that too…
Brentford v Swansea
Saturday May 29, 15:00
Sky Sports
Brentford and Swansea go head-to-head for a place in the Premier League at Wembley on Saturday, a match often described as the most valuable in world football. The Bees, who were defeated in last season’s final, are 1.9520/21 to get the job done this time. In their way, stands a well-organised Swansea side who are nevertheless 4.94/1 to win inside 90 minutes.
Key Stat: Both Championship meetings between Brentford and Swansea this season ended in 1-1 draws, with the Bees taking the lead in both games before being pegged back.
Mark O’Haire says: “Since the famous Sunderland 4-4 Charlton play-off final 23 years ago, 14 (64%) Championship curtain-closers have reached the 90 minute mark with fewer than three goals – 50% of those 22 encounters produced no more than a solitary strike, including six of the most recent eight.
Only four of the past 20 finals have paid out for Both Teams To Score 2.166/5 backers, potentially highlighting the value in going against the grain and opposing goals.
“With that in mind, we can combine the two major goals markets by supporting Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ for a 1.855/6 shout via the Bet Builder on Betfair Sportsbook.”
Mark’s bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at 1.855/6
Betfair Ambassador Dimitar Berbatov played in three Champions League finals so who better to give us his views on Saturday night’s Man City v Chelsea clash in Porto.
Man City v Chelsea
20:00
Live on YouTube and BT Sport 1
Dimitar says: “Looking at the two teams and which players can provide that sparkle, Kevin De Bruyne is up there for sure. He is two or three steps ahead of others at times. His passing which slices through the defence, he is always trying to pass the ball forward. He is trying to put the team on the front foot and he even knows what foot his fellow City players prefer to use.
“The fairytale ending is Aguero scoring the winning goal. All people from City will be rooting for that.
“Chelsea have quality, I like Timo Werner despite the criticism for him this year, but he is making goalscoring opportunities and is making chances for his teammates. I’m impressed with Mendy, the Chelsea goalkeeper, despite him being injured, hopefully he is fit.
“I also think Chelsea play as a big unit, they know how to attack and how to defend. They are a solid team which move on the pitch as a unit. You watch them and think you cannot go through them.
“It should be a good game, but sometimes players and the qualities they have doesn’t necessarily mean good football. Sometimes that nervousness and stress can play a big part and have a negative impact on the game. Tuchel and Guardiola have both been there before and know how to prepare their teams.
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I’m going for 1-1 then a penalty shootout. Players hate a shootout as their heart-rate is going through the roof. I will go for a shootout and Aguero to score the winning penalty. I love a fairytales, just as long as he doesn’t do a Panenka against Mendy again.”
On this week’s Football…Only Bettor host Kevin Hatchard and guests Mark O’Haire and Jake Osgathorpe preview Saturday’s Champions League final as well as the Championship, League One and Two play-off finals that take place across the weekend. Look out for this week’s podcast treble at boosted odds as well as the weekend naps.
Mark O’Haire says: “In the Champions League final over 40 booking points is odds-on which is where I’d have it. I like the look of Antonio Rudiger at 3/1 to get a card. He has looked seriously pumped up in recent matches and shown a tendency to get amongst it.
Kevin Hatchard says: Riyad Mahrez to have a shot from outside the box at 3.259/4 caught my eye as did Timo Werner for an assist at 5.04/1
Kevin’s bet: Back Chelsea @ 3.02/1 in the Champions League Winner 2020/21 market
The Champions League final pits two defences against each other so should we rule out goals at both ends? Not necessarily.
Stephen Tudor says: For prolonged tracts of this season both City and Chelsea have been formidable at the back. That is no longer the case though. In recent weeks both defences have become decidedly mortal.
“During Tuchel’s opening three-and-a-half months at the helm Chelsea kept clean sheets a staggering 72% of the time. Just 11 goals were conceded in 25 games.
“In their last four fixtures, however, they’ve been breached on five occasions, contributing to three defeats.
“City meanwhile won the Premier League title courtesy of an impenetrable rearguard. Across a 28-game period from Christmas to early April, the champions-elect conceded just 13 goals, equating to a goal every 193 minutes.
“In their last 12 contests that ratio has tumbled to 77 minutes with Newcastle and Brighton – neither exactly known for their prolificacy – recently helping themselves to three apiece inside a week.
“Granted, there are extenuating circumstances for City with the league wrapped up early but even so, a scant number of opportunities may well be added to by individual mishap.”
It could be a long night in Portugal on Saturday when Manchester City take on Chelsea in the all-English Champions League final and spot-kicks may be needed.
Dave Tindall says: “I have a vested interest in Chelsea having put them at at 30.029/1 pre-tournament as a back-to-lay. If you took that price, I’d obviously advise laying some back to ensure a decent profit.
“For balance, I also said City looked ‘false favourites’ but hey ho! My excuse was I didn’t realise the impact Ruben Dias would have and the preview was written shortly after City had been thrashed 5-2 at home by Leicester (before Dias was signed).
“Despite Tuchel’s short time in charge, we already have some useful head-to-head form as the two teams have played twice since the German replaced Lampard.
“And, fascinatingly, Chelsea won them both. Hakim Ziyech’s goal proved the winner in April’s FA Cup semi-final at Wembley and earlier this month Ziyech (63) and Marcos Alonso (90) struck second-half goals to give the Blues a 2-1 win at the Etihad after Raheem Sterling had put City in front.
“The twist is that Guardiola held his cards back in both games, as if he knew that there would be a third meeting in the Champions League final. The masterplan will be complete if City send out the full big guns and blow Chelsea away.
“That said, beating their rivals twice will have given Chelsea some sort of psychological edge and it’s simplistic to think City can just turn it on and change the outcome with a different line-up.
“Even when personnel change, tactics can remain the same and Tuchel has clearly found a way of keeping City in check.”
Dave’s bets: 1pt Man City to win on Penalties at 12.011/1 1pt Chelsea to win on Penalties at 13.012/1
Bet Builder lets you combine multiple selections within a single event to build an accumulator so it could be ideal for the big night in Porto.
Max Liu says: “Tuchel was at the helm for PSG when they lost 1-0 to Bayern Munich last August so he has fresh Champions League final experience. Guardiola, meanwhile is looking to win this competition for the third time, having won it in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona. He would become only the third manager to win the title three times, along with Carlo Ancelotti and Zinedine Zidane.
“I expect Guardiola to join that illustrious company and don’t buy into the theory that Tuchel knows how to beat him – at least not to the point that it will happen every time. Guardiola will have learned plenty from that FA Cup semi-final defeat to Chelsea, and to a lesser degree from the 2-1 Premier League loss at the Etihad, and he will come prepared on Saturday.
“He will have watched Leicester overcome Chelsea and seen that Tuchel’s men are not unbeatable. That result took away some of the new Chelsea’s aura and showed that they are by no means the finished article.”
“It’s City’s year and, in the second-half, I’m backing them to overcome Chelsea and win this competition for the first time.”
Max’s bet: Back 0-0 for first-half correct score and Manchester City to win at 5.85/1
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
