Get our football writers’ expert tips with a bumper day of Premier League fixtures to look forward to, along with the Championship, Bundesliga and La Liga…
West Ham v Newcastle
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport
West Ham have been far from convincing in recent times and are worth taking on against rejuvenated Newcastle in the day’s first Premier League clash, says Dave Tindall.
Dave says: “On league position, the market comes as no real surprise. West Ham are clear favourites at 1.758/11 while Newcastle trade at 5.59/2 and The Draw at 4.1.
“But is that a proper reflection of the pair’s current form? West Ham’s one win in the last five is a 1-0 success over struggling Watford and they almost suffered humiliation in the FA Cup to non-league Kidderminster.
“The Hammers also got of out jail last week when defender Craig Dawson bagged a last-minute equaliser in a 2-2 draw at Leicester. Bottom line, can West Ham be trusted at that price?
“Newcastle are on a roll and, although the loss of Trippier is a blow, confidence is still flowing. Another new signing, Dan Burn from Brighton, helped them keep a clean sheet in the win over Villa and the Magpies have now conceded just three times in their last five Premier League matches.
“It must also be a plus that they’ve won their last two away games at West Ham: 2-0 last season and 3-2 in the 2019/20 campaign. For balance, the Hammers beat Newcastle 4-2 at St James’s Park in August.
“I’m veering between a draw and an away win this time so the simplest way to go is a lay of West Ham at 1.758/11.”
Dave’s bet: Lay West Ham @ 1.758/11
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
There are five games in the Bundesliga on Saturday afternoon, and using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor has scoreline tips for them all.
Tom says: “Successive victories have eased Wolfsburg’s relegation worries and moved them towards mid-table, and they have a chance to continue that trend against Champions League-chasing Hoffenheim.
“The visitors have averaged 1.63 xGA across their last four in the league to ensure their top four hopes hang in the balance, and Infogol’s model anticipates a narrow victory for the hosts at Volkswagen Arena.”
Tom’s bet: Back the 2-1 Correct Score @ 11.521/2
Liverpool v Norwich
Saturday, 15:00
It may not be live on TV, but it’s still a big game in the Premier League as Liverpool host Norwich in an attempt to cut the gap at the top of the table to six points before Man City play later today. Simon Mail believes the Reds will do just that.
Simon says: “The Reds are the joint highest scorers, with 61 goals in the league, and Klopp’s hosts should dish out another beating this weekend. Liverpool have scored three or more goals against Norwich in four of their last five meetings and another high-scoring win is likely.
“A bet on Liverpool to win both halves appeals at 10/11. Liverpool’s last three league wins at Anfield all produced this outcome and Norwich could face another heavy defeat.”
Simon’s bet: Back Liverpool to win both halves @ 1.9110/11 (Sportsbook)
Derby v Peterborough
Saturday, 15:00
There’s another fascinating fixture list in the second tier this weekend and Jack Critchley reckons Derby can edge past relegation rivals Peterborough as he previews all Saturday’s non-televised games.
Jack says: “Despite winning just one of their last five matches, Derby’s great escape still remains a possibility and the Rams will have been buoyed by the midweek stalemate between fellow strugglers Reading and this weekend’s opponents Peterborough.
“Wayne Rooney has done an incredible job of steering the rudderless ship towards survival and although they’ve been fairly ropey on the road in recent months, their home form has been sensational.
“The hosts have won five of their last seven matches at this venue and have netted nine times in their last five outings. The Rams had far too much energy for Hull10 days ago and if they can make a similarly fast start here, they have every chance of claiming a vitally important three points in this basement battle.”
Jack’s bet: Back Derby to beat Peterborough @ 1.9520/21
Manchester City v Tottenham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports
Manchester City are again hot favourites for a Premier League home game. Andy Schooler finds an odds-against angle for Saturday’s clash with Spurs.
Andy says: “Over 2.5 goals in the game is just 1.654/6 – add the City win and that becomes 2.26/5. That’s sure to prove popular given the number of goals they’ve scored of late.
“However, Spurs seem highly likely to take on a defensive approach here and try to snuff City out as much as possible.
“With Harry Kane up front, aided by the pace of Son Heung-min and (probably) Lucas Moura, they’ve got the ability to cause problems on the break – that’s how they’ve troubled City in recent home games – so they may well be happy to try to soak up the inevitable pressure.
“That makes me consider an ‘unders’ play – City to win and under 3.5 goals is also at 2.226/5. For all the talk of City goal gluts, just 33% of their home matches have featured over 3.5 goals, while for Spurs away games, the equivalent figure is 30%.
“For me, this looks a decent way of getting odds-against about the home win.”
Andy’s bet: Back Man City to beat Spurs and under 3.5 goals in the game @ 2.226/5
Real Madrid v Alavés
Saturday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions in a busy week at both ends, including Saturday night’s game involving Real Madrid.
Tom says: “Real Madrid were second-best in their midweek Champions League defeat, but Carlo Ancelotti‘s side can bounce straight back in a game where they are heavy favourites.
“The league leaders are averaging a phenomenal 2.45 xGF on home soil, while Alavés’ 2.09 xGA average away from home is one of La Liga’s worst, so anything other than a home win would be a significant shock.”
Tom’s bet: Back the 3-0 Correct Score @ 7.807/1
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
