Get the best bets from our football experts for Saturday’s Premier League, Championship, La Liga and much more…
Nottingham Forest 2.01/1 v Derby 4.47/2, the Draw 3.3512/5
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
An East Midlands derby gets the Saturday action in the Championship and Mark O’Haire expects it to be tight at the City Ground.
Mark says: “Nottingham Forest have suffered a solitary reverse in the last 11 East Midlands derby dates with Derby (W3-D7-L1), silencing the Rams in five of their most recent nine meetings. The Tricky Trees are also unbeaten in their most recent eight encounters with their bitter rivals at the City Ground (W4-D4-L0), keeping five clean sheets in that sample, since 2012.
“Forest picked up a solitary point from their opening seven games this season yet the Reds have since boasted an impressive W10-D6-L3 record, including W4-D3-L2 as hosts. The improvement under Steve Cooper has brought the Tricky Trees to within reach of the play-off positions, only twice conceding multiple goals in 19 league dates.
“Despite enduring a disastrous off-field campaign, Derby have continued to produce sterling defensive displays that have caused almost every opponent issues. County have lost just seven league games in 2021/22 – only once by a margin of two goals or more – and have shipped the fourth-fewest goals. The Rams have W4-D1-L0 in their most recent five fixtures.”
Mark’s bet:
Everton 2.8815/8 v Aston Villa 2.727/4, the Draw 3.412/5
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
It’s Duncan Ferguson v Steven Gerrard as the Scot tries to get a reaction out of Everton in his first match back as caretaker manager.
Dan Fitch says: “When match odds are calculated, form, general ability and home advantage are all considered. A new manager upsets this equation, even if it’s an interim figure like Ferguson.
“The two teams could hardly be closer priced and this not only illustrates the uncertainty surrounding Everton, but also the fact that there is a decent amount of talent within the squad, even if it’s Villa that are the ones making major moves in the transfer market. This should be as evenly matched as the odds suggest and therefore backing the draw makes the most sense, at odds of 3.412/5.
“Despite the fact that Everton did not always find goals easy to come by under Benitez, they come into this game having found the net in each of their last seven outings. They also conceded in each of these games, so both teams to score could offer some value.”
Dan’s bet:
Mönchengladbach 2.35/4 v Union Berlin 3.3512/5, the Draw 3.55
14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
While Union Berlin were celebrating a famous derby win over Hertha on Wednesday, Mönchengladbach were licking their wounds after an abominable 3-0 defeat at second-tier Hannover in the cup.
Kevin Hatchard says: “Coach Adi Hütter has been given staunch backing by sporting director Max Eberl, but he is under increasing pressure. Gladbach are closer to the dropzone than the European spots, and they have lost nine of their 19 matches in the Bundesliga. Only Hertha Berlin and rock-bottom Greuther Fürth have worse defensive records, and had it not been for Sommer, I think the Rhineland club might even have sunk into the bottom three.
“Union Berlin don’t have Gladbach’s financial muscle or their history, but they do have a unity of purpose, an astute coach (Urs Fischer) who they trust and an incredible work ethic. Even without star striker Taiwo Awoniyi, who is away with Nigeria at AFCON, they have posed an attacking threat. Ex-Bielefeld forward Andreas Voglsammer has scored in back-to-back games, including a jaw-dropping volley to open the scoring on Wednesday. Union are fifth in the league, and have lost just four top-flight matches.”
Kevin’s bet:
Man Utd 1.9420/21 v West Ham 4.3100/30, the Draw 3.9
15:00
Manchester United lost their last Premier League home match, so can they give the home fans something to cheer about against fourth-placed West Ham?
Mark O’Haire says: “Manchester United have won 20 of their last 25 home Premier League contests with West Ham (W20-D3-L2) and are unbeaten in 13 league match-ups with the Hammers here since 2007. However, the visitors were 1-0 victors here in the League Cup earlier this season – only three teams have ever won twice away against the Red Devils in the same campaign.
“United are trading at their biggest-ever price at home to West Ham and it’s still difficult to be seduced by the odds on offer. The hosts have won just 48% of Old Trafford tussles since the start of last season and that includes a W3-D3-L7 return when taking on top-half teams. United managed only two clean sheets in that 13-game sample.
“West Ham boast the division’s four-best road record (W6-D2-L3), although all three defeats came at top-half teams this term. Nevertheless, the Irons rank above United in terms of Expected Points (xP) and Expected Goals (xG) supremacy, suggesting the market could even be tiered more towards David Moyes’ outfit ahead of Saturday’s clash.”
Mark’s bet:
Inter 1.132/15 v Venezia 26.025/1, the Draw 11.010/1
17:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN
The champions have been formidable in attack and defence recently and should have too much for relegation-threatened Venezia.
Chloe Beresford says: “Inter are flying right now, going into this weekend sitting two points clear at the top of the table despite playing one game fewer than the teams behind them. They are undefeated in their last 27 home matches in Serie A, and have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 13 games at San Siro.
What’s more, the Nerazzurri have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last eight matches, with the team conceding just once in that spell and looking extremely confident.
“That looks like a tall order for a Venezia side who have failed to win their last eight Serie A matches.”
Chloe’s bet:
Southampton 12.011/1 v Man City 1.292/7, the Draw 6.86/1
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
With Manchester City short in the betting, it could pay to focus on the player markets in Saturday’s televised clash at Southampton.
Dave Tindall says: “My best guess of the scoreline would be City winning by one or two goals but both are still odds-on on the handicaps so I’ll swerve that method of attack. Instead, there look to be better options in the scorer markets.
“After a bit of a stop-start run, Kevin De Bruyne appears to be in full flow now and scored a superb winner in the 1-0 victory over Chelsea last weekend.
“All roads appear to point to KDB in this fixture. He’s scored an impressive nine goals in his last 14 Premier League starts while he’s laid on an assist in all three matches he’s started at St Mary’s.
“The common view is that De Bruyne assists more than he scores and that’s correct over his career. However, it’s flipped this season. He’s netted seven times but assisted just three (the same as Ruben Dias for example).”
Dave’s bet:
Atletico Madrid 1.538/15 v Valencia 8.88/1, the Draw 4.216/5
20:00
Live on Betfair Live Video
Atletico Madrid host Valencia, in ninth, in the Spanish capital on Saturday night as Diego Simeone’s men try to stay in the La Liga top four.
Tom Victor says: “While the battle for the third and fourth Champions League spots remains tight, games like the one against Valencia firmly fall in the ‘must win’ category for Atlético Madrid.
“The champions came from behind to win the corresponding fixture last season, and Infogol’s model backs them to take the points once more against opponents averaging 1.67 xGA per game away from home.”
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Tom’s bet:
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
