Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

Man City 1.748/11 v Chelsea 5.49/2, the Draw 4.1
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

The Premier League champions can open up further distance between themselves and their rivals at the top of the table in Saturday’s early kick-off.

Mark O’Haire says: “Manchester City’s matches are featuring 3.14 goals with Chelsea’s league dates coming in at 2.90 goals per-game – although the duo are above-average, the pair tend to be involved in tighter tussles when taking on elite opposition.

“The reverse contest concluded with a solitary strike, and only one of City and Chelsea’s combined Premier League match-ups with Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Leicester saw five goals or more plundered, suggesting something similar could be on the cards at The Etihad considering the circumstances afflicting both teams.

“City don’t necessarily need to go gung-ho for maximum points and have recently been subject to a severe Covid outbreak in the squad, and Chelsea arrive here on the back of a taxing League Cup encounter in midweek, meaning a wager on Manchester City to win and Under 4.5 Goals makes the most appeal at the prices on offer.”

Mark’s bet: Back Manchester City and Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.855/6

Luton 3.211/5 v Bournemouth 2.427/5, the Draw 3.55/2
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

Scott Parker’s leaders face a tricky assignment when they travel to Bournemouth in the Championship early televised match.

Mark O’Haire says: “Matches between Luton and Bournemouth this century have tended to be tight affairs. The Hatters have enjoyed a slight W5-D4-L4 supremacy over the Cherries, and have returned W2-D3-L1 when the duo have crossed swords at Kenilworth Road in that sequence, although Bournemouth have been beaten just once in the duos last seven match-ups.

“Luton’s lack of Championship action over the last month has seen the Hatters trickle down in the bottom half of the table and could mean Town are a touch undercooked coming into this contest. Town have tabled only two league triumphs since late October (W2-D2-L4) and are winless against the current top-six (W0-D3-L3) this season.”

Mark’s bet: Back Bournemouth Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.8810/11

St Etienne 4.03/1 v Lens 2.0811/10, the Draw 3.613/5
16:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

St Etienne are bottom of Ligue 1 and are likely to struggle when sixth-placed Lens come to town on Saturday.

James Eastham says: “With a full squad for this game, Lens manager Franck Haise has good options all over the pitch. This is particularly the case in attack, where five good players – Gael Kakuta, David Pereira da Costa, Wesley Said, Florian Sotoca and Arnaud Kalimuendo – are competing for three slots in the starting line-up. And, just behind these five on the pitch, ex-Fulham man Seko Fofana has developed into one of Ligue 1’s best all-round midfielders this season.

“St Etienne will be below-strength. Goalkeeper Etienne Green is ruled out, as is striker Wahbi Khazri, on duty for Tunisia at the African Nations Cup. Easily their most dangerous player this season, Khazri has scored seven (41%) of St Etienne’s meagre tally of 17 league goals.”

James’ bet: Back Lens @ 2.111/10

Salernitana 7.613/2 v Lazio 1.491/2, the Draw 4.57/2
17:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Lazio’s poor defence means that even Serie A’s basement club may be able to score against them on Saturday.

Chloe Beresford says: “Bottom of the table Salernitana have lost their last five home matches in Serie A and have failed to score in their last four, but even they might expect to find the back of the net against the weak defence of their visitors on Saturday evening.

Indeed, only four teams – Salernitana, Empoli, Spezia and Cagliari – have conceded more goals than the 39 Lazio have allowed so far, yet only Inter, Atalanta and Milan have scored more.

So with that in mind, the tip here is to back Lazio to win and both teams to score, a market that is currently available at odds of 3.02/1.

Chloe’s bet: Back Lazio and both teams to score @ 3.02/1

Aston Villa 3.052/1 v Man Utd 2.56/4, the Draw 3.55
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Villa were unlucky to lose to the United in the FA Cup on Monday and, at Villa Park on Saturday, the hosts will fancy their chances of getting at least a point.

Alex Keble says: “Aston Villa were considerably better than Manchester United in the FA Cup on Monday night but were unable to convert their good positions into many clear goalscoring opportunities. However, the additions of Lucas Digne and Philippe Coutinho ought to solve the profligacy we saw in poor decisions made by Anwar El Ghazi and Matt Targett in particular.

“Steven Gerrard’s 4-3-2-1 shape is particularly adept at blocking the middle of the pitch and, in a neatly compressed midblock, it was able to stifle Bruno Fernandes, who had a very poor game despite Ralf Rangnick shifting to a more conventional 4-2-3-1. It is highly likely United will once again struggle to create chances.

“Villa dominated the midfield battle thanks to the superb quick-tempo triangles the new manager has already managed to impart to his players. John McGinn’s suspension puts a spanner in the works but with United’s midfield at its timid worst, Villa should still control the rhythms of the match. From here, the overlapping runs of Digne can pierce United in a way the hosts could not five days ago.”

Alex’s bet: Back Villa @ 3.052/1

Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.6413/8 v Bayer Leverkusen 2.568/5, the Draw 4.03/1
17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Bayer Leverkusen boast one of the Bundesliga’s best attacks and that’s bad news for local rivals Borussia Monchengladbach.

Kevin Hatchard says: “Leverkusen’s weaknesses were there for all to see in last weekend’s clumsy 2-2 draw with Union Berlin. As so many sides do, Bayer walked right into Union’s counter-attacking trap, and only a late Jonathan Tah header got them out of jail. However, it was an example of how Gerardo Seoane’s side’s firepower can get them out of many tricky spots. Bayer have rattled in 42 goals in 18 games, and star striker Patrik Schick has 17 of those goals in just 15 appearances. In terms of outperforming his personal Expected Goals figure, Schick is the most efficient striker in the league.

“Gladbach have moved to address their defensive issues by signing Union Berlin centre-back Marvin Freidrich, but I’m not sure it’s really a personnel problem. Nico Elvedi and Matthias Ginter are individually very good defenders, but the team as a whole has leaked 33 goals, more than four of the current bottom five. Adi Hütter’s side are simply too easy to play against, and they have real trouble against Bayer, having lost their last four league games against them.

“Without key players like Ramy Bensebaini and Jonas Hofmann, I’m still not convinced about Gladbach, and I’ll oppose them here. We can use the Bet Builder on the Sportsbook to back Bayer/Draw Double Chance and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.226/5.”

Kevin’s bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.226/5

Guinea Bisau 11.010/1 v Egypt 1.434/9, the Draw 4.3100/30
19:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Egypt were disappointing when they lost to Nigeria in their first match at the African Cup of Nations, so can they bounce back against Guinea Bisau?

James Eastham says: “Heavily reliant on Mohamed Salah for inspiration in the final third, Egypt struggled to break down the Nigerian defence, and may have similar problems here. Guinea Bissau looked fairly well-organised in their opening-game 0-0 draw vs Sudan, and avoiding defeat will be their priority again.

“Egypt are 1.434/9 favourites, with Guinea Bissau 10.519/2 and The Draw 4.3100/30. Opposing Egypt would be risky, but the short odds on the Pharaohs throw up other interesting options.

“Guinea Bissau +1.0 & 1.5 Asian Handicap is available at 1.9520/21. With this selection, you’ll make a profit as long as the underdogs avoid defeat by two or more goals.”

James’ bet: Back Guinea Bissau +1.0 & 1.5 @ 1.9520/21