It’s another big day in the Premier League title race with both Liverpool and Man City in action as well as top tips for the Championship, League 1 final day, Serie A and more…
There’s a big week of football ahead of us and the betting numbers already make fascinating reading, so here are some top facts for the games ahead.
Liverpool feature prominently, as you’d expect for a side that’s flying in all competitions. The Reds are the most backed team, for their clash with Newcastle, and they’re part of the most popular acca along with Aston Villa, Bayern Munich and Man City (all to win).
It’s their title rivals Man City who have the best backed player in the first goal scorer betting: step forward Kevin de Bruyne. When it comes to the players who are most backed to have an assist where back where we started with Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold and Newcastle’s Bruno Guimares.
And that is where our experts start their best bets…
Newcastle 8.88/1 v Liverpool 1.42/5, the Draw 5.14/1
12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Newcastle’s impressive form and Liverpool’s hectic schedule make the hosts appeal on the handicap in Saturday lunchtime’s Premier League showdown…
Andy Schooler says: “While I’m not prepared to suggest Newcastle are about to beat Liverpool, I do feel that the circumstances outlined above make them appeal on the Asian handicap.
“If you back them on the +1.25 line at 2.01/1, you’ll make a profit even if they lose by one goal which I think looks fair.
“Liverpool have had to grind out wins over both Everton and Villarreal at Anfield over the past week, both sides shutting up shop effectively for long periods. On each occasion, the Reds’ stamina-sapping press was very much needed – another reason to have at least some concerns about fatigue.
“Admittedly both ended by up losing by two goals but each game was 0-0 at half time which points towards another potential angle.”
Andy’s bet:
Gillingham 5.69/2 v Rotherham 1.684/6, the Draw 4.1
12:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
One of best climaxes to a League One season lies in wait for the backers and layers on Saturday, so our third tier experts’ tips are essential reading. Here’s a taste…
Alan Dudman says: “The visitors have won five of their last six Football League encounters with Gillingham (L1), scoring 3+ goals in four of those five victories, and that bodes well if you want to explore the Gillingham +1 market angle. They absolutely smashed the Gills earlier in the season 5-1, and they have too many players of quality not to get a result here.
“Neil Harris has done a good job, as they looked dead and buried under the chaotic days of Steve Evans, and he’s made them harder to beat by simply trying to shut up shop in most games. They have scored just 13 times at the Priestfield, and since their 2-7 humiliation at the hands of Oxford in January, 13 games have hit the Under 2.5 target.
“Defeat for Gillingham will all but condemn them to relegation to League Two, as Wimbledon can lose too but they have that crucial goal difference. I’m using the Bet Builder here to back Rotherham to get the three points and the Both Teams To Score to make a 2.55 bet.”
Alan’s bet:
Napoli 1.511/2 v Sassuolo 6.611/2, the Draw 5.14/1
14:00
Our Serie A expert is anticipating goals in the south on Saturday afternoon as Napoli try to bounce back…
Chloe Beresford says: “A stunning loss to Empoli last week has left Napoli trailing behind the top two and out to 20.019/1 in the title betting, and allowed fourth-placed Juve to close the gap to them. As Napoli prepare to take on a vibrant Sassuolo outfit on Saturday, Luciano Spalletti’s men will hope to take all three points in what could be a high-scoring affair.
“There have been over 2.5 goals scored in seven of Sassuolo’s last eight games, while Napoli have seen over that same total in five of their last six. With that in mind, the tip here is to back Napoli to win and both teams to score at around 2.56/4.”
Chloe’s bet:
Blackburn 3.02/1 v Bournemouth 2.526/4, the Draw 3.55/2
15:00
Blackburn have been poor in 2022 but they got a good result last time out and their forwards could fire against Scott Parker’s promotion hopefuls…
Jack Critchley says: “It’s been a hugely forgettable 2022 for the Lancashire side, with no Championship side having scored fewer goals since January 1st than Tony Mowbray’s men (14). Although they could still mathematically make the play-offs, it seems unlikely that they will gatecrash the top six at this stage.
“Nevertheless, with a full squad to pick from, Mowbray will be keen to end the season on a high and give the frustrated home faithful some much-needed cheer.
“Bournemouth produced a sensational comeback to draw 3-3 with Swansea in midweek and although they aren’t quite over the line yet, Scott Parker will be feeling confident that his side can secure their return to the Premier League at Ewood Park.”
Jack’s bet:
Real Madrid 1.548/15 v Espanyol 7.26/1, the Draw 4.67/2
15:00
Real Madrid can wrap up the La Liga title on Saturday but they are likely to field a weakened team ahead of their Champions League semi-final second leg next week…
Dan Fitch says: ” It seems that Carlo Ancelotti will have a depleted defence. Both Ferland Mendy and David Alaba struggled against Manchester City, as they looked to recover from injuries, with the latter replaced at half-time. Alaba and Mendy are likely to be rested, while Eder Militao and Nacho Fernandez are suspended.
“It also remains to be seen whether Ancelotti will dare risk important players such as Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, who grabbed another two goals in the defeat to Manchester City.
“Espanyol are not in great form, having lost three of their last four games (W1), but with the amount of changes that Real could make, it makes sense to avoid the result. With Ancelotti likely to play a makeshift defence, both teams to score could land.”
Dan’s bet:
Hoffenheim 2.526/4 v Freiburg 2.915/8, the Draw 3.65
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Football and Betfair Live Video
Freiburg can move into the top four with a victory at Hoffenheim and our Bundesliga expert is backing exactly that…
Kevin Hatchard says: “Freiburg make the short trip to face a Hoffenheim side that has collapsed under the weight of expectation. Sebastian Hoeness’ side was in the mix for a top-four finish just a few weeks ago, but they have collected just three points from their last six games, and they are in serious danger of missing out on Europe entirely.
“Freiburg won at Hoffenheim 4-1 in the cup, and they are the team with the form and the momentum. They have lost just two of their last eight away games in the league, and I’ll back them +0 & +0.5 here on the Asian Handicap. If the game is drawn, we get a half-win, but we get a full payout if the visitors take all three points.”
Kevin’s bet:
Rennes 1.364/11 v St Etienne 10.09/1, the Draw 5.95/1
20:00
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video
PSG may have won the Ligue 1 title but all other major issues have yet to be decided, so find out where our French football expert finds the value this weekend.
James Eastham says: “Rennes have frequently won by big margins at home this season and have another excellent opportunity to do so when they host St Etienne at Roazhan Park on Saturday night.
“The Bretons are one of those teams that always look to score the second and third goal after going ahead in matches, and we ought to see this positive approach from them again this weekend.
“Rennes are an excellent W12-D1-L4 at home this season yet the more important stat for our selection on this game is the one that shows how frequently Bruno Genesio’s players have triumphed by more than one goal.”
James’s bet:
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
