Watford to toil on their travels once again
Birmingham 4.1 v Watford 2.1211/10; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday, 15:00
Pressure had been slowly starting to mount on Birmingham boss Aitor Karanka following a winless November. The Spaniard had struggled to get the best out of his side, and his constant chopping and changing of formation had understandably frustrated large swathes of the fanbase. However, the former Middlesbrough gaffer has returned to a system which has previously served him well, and the move appears to have paid off.
Brum come into this tie off the back of consecutive away victories, with narrow successes over Reading and Bristol City having catapulted them into the relative safety of mid-table.
Karanka has opted to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation once again, and the players have clearly benefited from some much-needed consistency. Having trialled six different set-ups already this year, it appears that the 47-year old has finally settled on the most effective way to pick up points in the Championship this season. The Blues have collected 16 of their 22 points using this system, and they will be looking to continue their unbeaten streak on Saturday afternoon.
Unfortunately, they won’t be able to call upon captain Harlee Dean for this encounter. The defender, who has been the only ever-present in the side this season, was sent off on Wednesday night, and will sit this one out. Two-goal hero Jon Toral is likely to remain in the side, however, the hugely disappointing Jonathan Leko could be given a rest this weekend.
Watford eased to victory at Vicarage Road against Rotherham in midweek, with the Hornets racing into a two-goal lead in the first half. Very little happened during the second 45, which perhaps suggested that Vladimir Ivic’s men were happy to just simply see the game out without expending too much energy.
Despite their lofty position in the table, the Hertfordshire side’s away form is hugely concerning, and their lack of firepower on the road has understandably begun to worry some supporters. Although they’ve played a game less than the majority of their rivals, no side has netted fewer times on their travels this season, with only struggling Nottingham Forest matching their paltry total of three away goals.
Watford are priced up as the favourites for this clash, however, they’ve drawn four of their last five away from home, and they are incredibly hard to trust. As a result, backing Birmingham Double Chance on the Sportsbook looks to be the best way forward here. Brum are improving, and as long as they stick to their effective 4-2-3-1 system, they should be tough to beat here.
Another entertaining 90 minutes at Kenilworth Road
Luton 2.9215/8 v Preston 2.68/5; The Draw 3.259/4
Saturday, 15:00
Luton picked up another point on the road in midweek, as they held in-form Coventry to a goalless draw at St.Andrews. The Hatters have been fairly inconsistent this season, and have a 6-5-6 record from their opening 17 Championship fixtures. Their home form has been relatively strong, and only high-flying duo Stoke and Brentford have managed to leave this ground with maximum points.
Although the majority of fans are quite rightly concerned about their lack of firepower, they do tend to find the back of the net in Bedfordshire. Stoke and Brentford are also the only two sides to have kept Nathan Jones’ side at arm’s length so far.
There has been an average of 2.5 goals per game at this ground so far, and confidence should be high following their 3-1 victory over Norwich here ten days ago. The hosts are also unbeaten in their last three against Preston, and the home team does tend to come out on top whenever these two sides meet.
Preston were eye-catching winners on Wednesday night as they picked up a notable 3-0 success against Middlesbrough at Deepdale. Although their home form has been ropey, they have been excellent on the road, and they’ve managed to amass a total of 16 points from their first eight away fixtures.
Alex Neil’s men have been involved in some very entertaining contests so far this season, with 65% of their games containing at least three goals. Over 2.5 goals has also landed in 88% of their away games, with only free-scoring Blackburn having managed to match their total of 18 away goals.
PNE managed to keep their fourth clean sheets of the campaign on Wednesday night, although they haven’t managed to keep the opposition off the scoresheet on the road since November 4. With injuries and suspensions at the back, the visitors are likely to deploy Paul Huntingdon at the back once again, and he could find it tough to keep tabs on the energetic hosts.
There have been 12 goals in Preston’s last three matches, and this has the potential to be a hugely entertaining 90 minutes. Over 2.5 Goals is available at 2.186/5 on the Exchange and that looks like tremendous value in this potentially end-to-end clash.
High-scoring affair expected at Ewood Park
Blackburn 2.6813/8 v Norwich 2.789/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Saturday, 15:00
Blackburn suffered a disappointing defeat on the road in midweek as they were edged out by Bristol City at Ashton Gate. Tony Mowbray‘s side have been incredibly enjoyable to watch this season, and despite drawing a blank on Wednesday night, they still managed to fire in 22 efforts on goal.
At Ewood Park, Rovers have been incredibly effective going forward, and they are the joint-third highest home goalscorers in the division. They’ve netted 14 times on their own patch, more than high-flying Brentford, Reading and this weekend’s opponents Norwich.
Adam Armstrong has carried on where he left off, with the former Newcastle man having found the back of the net on 14 occasions so far. Nine of those efforts have arrived in Lancashire, and although he wasn’t able to add to his impressive total on Wednesday, he is likely to be a constant threat throughout the 90 minutes.
After being held to a goalless draw by Middlesbrough on November 3rd, Mowbray’s men have plundered seven goals in their subsequent three home matches, and it’s hard to see injury-hit Norwich keeping them off the scoresheet this weekend.
The Canaries snuck past Nottingham Forest in midweek, and the quick turnaround is unlikely to help ease their crippling injury list. However, a number of key players returned to the bench on Wednesday with Todd Cantwell, Kieran Dowell, Kenny McLean and Jordan Hugill all amongst the subs.
Although the recently recovered quartet may be eased into this game gently, Daniel Farke still has plenty of quality to call upon. Emi Buendia was back amongst the goals on Wednesday, whilst Mario Vrancic put in another assured display.
The Canaries have plenty going forward, but somewhat surprisingly, it’s now five matches since they last kept a clean sheet. Low-scoring Forest managed to find a way Michael McGovern in midweek, and it’s difficult to see Norwich keeping their high-scoring hosts off the scoresheet on Saturday afternoon.
With just one away clean sheet since September 12th, the visitors are likely to concede, and this could turn into a hugely absorbing and watchable contest between two excellent sides. Using the Sportsbook Same Game Multi, we can get Evens for Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS, and that looks to be the best way of approaching this game.
You can follow Jack Critchley on Twitter @jcritch7
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
