There’s another batch of crucial Championship fixtures on Saturday and Jack Critchley believes that Birmingham can build on last weekend’s success…
Shot-shy Hull to suffer back-to-back defeats
Birmingham 2.186/5 v Hull 3.65; The Draw 3.39/4
Despite some incredibly patch form, Birmingham look set for another season in the second tier. Lee Bowyer’s first choice XI is strong, however, injuries have stretched the squad close to breaking point this season and the former midfielder has been forced to chop and change his starting line-up on numerous occasions. Although there are still a number of players on the sidelines, Scott Hogan returned to action last weekend whereas Jeremie Bela and Teden Menghi are both expected to be involved in some capacity on Saturday.
At home, the Blues have a 6-4-7 record and have suffered just a single defeat when hosting bottom half opposition at St. Andrews. Although their form on the road has been inconsistent, they managed to take all three points back from Ashton Gate seven days ago and that should give them plenty of confidence coming into this contest.
Despite sticking three past Peterborough at the end of February, Hull continue to struggle going forward. Shota Arveladze’s side have failed to find the net in four of their last six and although they can be tough and obdurate at the other end of the field, they tend to offer very little in the final third. They managed just two shots on target against West Brom last weekend and recorded the same number of efforts at the Kiyan Prince in mid-February.
The Tigers may look to keep things tight, however, the hosts look far sharper in attack and with a couple of key players returning to the fold, it should be enough to tip this game in the Blues’ favour.
Play-off hunting Lions to thwart Boro
Millwall 32/1 v Middlesbrough 2.6813/8; The Draw 3.39/4
Millwall appear to be gaining momentum at just the right time. The Lions have collected the joint-most points across the last five matches and haven’t tasted defeat since the beginning of February. The home fans have witnessed just a single loss at this ground since October 16th and they’ve also seen their side keep four clean sheets in their last five fixtures at the Den.
The emergence of the unpredictable and direct Tyler Burey and the return of Jed Wallace has given the hosts something a little bit different in the final third and they are now just four points shy of the top six.
Middlesbrough suffered a heavy defeat at Bramall Lane in midweek and Chris Wilder will be determined to correct his side’s questionable away form. The Teessiders are yet to be victorious on the road in 2022 and have conceded seven times in their last three away games. This is far from an ideal fixture for the visitors.
In-form Seasiders to see off inconsistent Swans
Blackpool 2.486/4 v Swansea 3.259/4; The Draw 3.412/5
Neither Blackpool nor Swansea can realistically gatecrash the top six this time around, however, both sides can already begin to look ahead to next season. The Seasiders are coming off the back of consecutive victories and have suffered just two defeats in 2022.
Neil Critchley’s side have found the back of the net in each of their last seven home matches and with the likes of Josh Bowler and Shayne Lavery in their XI, they always offer a threat going forward. The hosts play with plenty of width and they are likely to test a Swans defence which shipped five against Fulham in midweek, albeit with ten men.
Swansea’s inconsistencies can be encapsulated by their form across the last ten matches. With a 4-1-5 record across this period, it’s often difficult to know which Swans XI is going to turn up. Russell Martin’s side have been far more reliable on their own patch and have picked up just four away victories all season. With Ryan Manning absent for the next four matches, they could struggle to leave Bloomfield Road with anything to show for their efforts.
Rovers return to form against struggling Robins
Blackburn 1.814/5 v Bristol City 5.24/1; The Draw 3.711/4
Blackburn have been struggling for firepower in recent weeks and they drew yet another blank in midweek. Tony Mowbray’s side are defensively sound, however, in Ben Brereton-Diaz’s absence, Rovers have struggled to find their rhythm in the final third. Nevertheless, the hosts have a fantastic home record and yet to be defeated when hosting bottom half clubs.
Although their recent form has been patchy, Nottingham Forest are still the only side to have left Ewood Park with all three points in 2022.
Bristol City have a 4-2-11 record on the road this season and have an average xG of 1.74 away from home. They have struggled to keep the opposition off the scoresheet on their travels and the leaky Robins’ defence may give Blackburn the perfect platform to restore their confidence in front of goal.
Leaky Cherries to concede again
Bournemouth 1.618/13 v Derby 76/1; The Draw 43/1
Bournemouth are still in the driving seat when it comes to automatic promotion, however, the Cherries have been far from convincing in recent weeks and Scott Parker’s men dropped yet more points in midweek as they failed to overcome struggling Peterborough. The Dorest club have plenty of attacking talent to call upon, however, they’ve kept just a single clean sheet in 2022 and they showed a real lack of discipline against Preston seven days ago.
There’s still a slim chance that Derby could preserve their Championship status and last weekend’s victory over Barnsley will have put a spring back in their step.
The Rams don’t score many on the road, however, with Tom Lawrence back from suspension, they could capitalise on the hosts’ fragile confidence. They stuck three past this opposition earlier in the season and this could be a similarly entertaining 90 minutes.
Bluebirds and Lilywhites to share the spoils
Cardiff 2.526/4 v Preston 3.259/4; The Draw 3.211/5
Steve Morison has galvanised his squad and the former striker has made Cardiff exceptionally tough to beat in front of their own fans. They also managed to pick up a rare away win last weekend as they edged past QPR at the Kiyan Prince. The hosts have accrued just six home victories so far this season, however, four of those wins have come since the end of January. They are exceptionally tough to breach in the welsh capital and have conceded just four times in their last seven matches here. Even runaway leaders Fulham had to be patient when they visited the Cardiff City Stadium at the end of February.
Preston have become equally tough to break down and the Lilywhites are much harder to beat since Ryan Lowe arrived in Lancashire. They’ve suffered just two defeats since the beginning of December and have recently restricted high-flying duo Huddersfield and Nottingham Forest. They’ve kept five clean sheets in their last eight matches and this could be another low-scoring contest.
Another tough away day for the Blades
Coventry 2.982/1 v Sheffield United 2.77/4; The Draw 3.3512/5
Coventry slipped up in midweek and Mark Robins will be hoping that his side can quickly bounce back from a disappointing Tuesday night at the CBS Arena. Notwithstanding their mid-season blip, the Sky Blues remain one of the toughest home sides in the division and having conceded an average of just 0.87 goals per game at this venue, they are unlikely to make it easy for the in-form visitors. At the other end of the field, they are struggling for goals at this ground and haven’t scored more than once at home since the beginning of November.
Sheffield United are on a high after beating fellow top six candidates in midweek. They have a 7-5-6 record on the road, although the majority of their away wins have come against sides languishing in the bottom eight. They’ve won just two of their last six away games and may just have to settle for a share of the points on Saturday afternoon.
Forest to ease past below-par Royals
Nottingham Forest 1.645/8 v Reading 6.86/1; The Draw 43/1
Forest will face Liverpool in the FA Cup later this month, however, the East Midlanders mustn’t let that distract them from their play-off push. If fans do have any concerns about the players taking their eye off the ball, they’ll be pleased to see that their side have a very winnable fixture on Saturday afternoon. The hosts have been excellent at the City Ground and have won three of their last four here and they’ve suffered just a single home defeat since late October. In addition to this, they’ve won six of their eight encounters with bottom half sides at this venue.
Reading are still four points from safety and despite some initial optimism, Paul Ince has struggled to get a tune out of his side over the last couple of weeks. The Royals failed to net against Millwall last weekend and despite showing flashes of quality in the final third, the Berkshire side’s defensive continues to let them down. With an average xGA of 2.04 on their travels, they are unlikely to leave the City Ground with anything to show for their efforts.
Stoke to drop yet more points on the road
Peterborough 3.9 v Stoke 2.166/5; The Draw 3.45
Peterborough haven’t shown much in recent weeks, however, Grant McCann’s side have put in some spirited performances. They played well against Fulham a couple of weeks ago, and they managed to take a point from a tough-looking fixture with Bournemouth in midweek. The former Hull boss will be keen for his side to build upon that display and although relegation now appears to be a formality, McCann will be keen for his side to go down fighting.
Stoke continue to struggle and they needed a last-gasp Lewis Baker strike to salvage a point at Oakwell in midweek. The Potters haven’t won for a month and they’ve picked up just two victories in 2022. They have a decent record on the road against bottom half opposition, however, they have dropped points against Birmingham, Bristol City and Barnsley and cannot be trusted to take all three points.
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
