After an 8/1 winner in the column last week, the NTT20 guys search for value once more in the EFL this weekend.
Argyle are a nightmare opponent, full of confidence and attacking intent, and should be able to exploit the Shrimps’ vulnerabilities from open play and set piece situations.
The U’s Valiant Effort To Fall Short
Port Vale v Colchester
Saturday, 15:00
No team has won more points than Port Vale over the last 10 games in League Two. With the creative threats of midfielder Tom Conlon and wide-man David Worrall in fine form, they are averaging two goals a game in that time. But it’s their defensive structure that stands out – they have the best open play defence in the league, per Opta Analyst’s expected goals stats. Opposition teams find it hard to get meaningful opportunities in the Vale penalty box.
Colchester United grabbed an important win last weekend vs Harrogate, but based on their general play this season – just nine goals scored in 12 games – it’s hard to imagine them causing Vale a lot of problems going forward. They’ll no doubt defend deep and look to frustrate, but Vale have enough quality in the final third to break them down, and should make it four straight home wins.
You Can Leave Your Hat On
Luton v Hull
Saturday, 15:00
Luton’s home performances have been better than results suggest this season – they are a team that plays with a lot of confidence and intent, and a summer of strong recruitment has left Nathan Jones with options in all areas and healthy competition for places. In Adebayo and Cornick they have a very underrated striker partnership, and when their high press is in full flow they make it very hard for teams to play.
By contrast, Grant McCann was hamstrung in the summer by an embargo of sorts, and is trying everything to hit upon a system that works for his Hull side. So far, no good on that front. It’s eight defeats in 13 games, the latest a desperately disappointing defeat to relegation rivals Peterborough on Wednesday which could leave a scar.
Having played on Tuesday night, an extra day’s rest in the legs will be valuable for a Luton side that will look to press the hell out of Hull. The Tigers have suffered 0-2 defeats away to Blackburn, Stoke and Huddersfield, and Luton are on a similar level to that group and we expect a similar outcome.
Argyle Make A Splash
Morecambe v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday, 15:00
Argyle are 13 games unbeaten and head into the weekend off the back of a giddy midweek thrashing – or should that be splashing – of Bolton Wanderers in the rain at a rocking Home Park.
With the second most goals in the league, and the joint third best defence, this Argyle run is built on solid foundations, and we’ve seem before that Ryan Lowe builds a spirit at clubs that can create these incredible runs of form.
Their hosts Morecambe started the season well, in part thanks to the highest conversion rate in the EFL (20%) which cannot be sustained.
In recent weeks, results have started to turn – they’ve lost three in a row, and conceded three or more in four of their last five. Argyle are a nightmare opponent, full of confidence and attacking intent, and should be able to exploit the Shrimps’ vulnerabilities from open play and set piece situations.
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
