The Not The Top Twenty football podcast team are back with their treble for Saturday’s action starting with another win for Wilder…
Both teams may not post the best attacking numbers, but focussing on the defensive issues is the way to get the value in Millwall v Birmingham.
Wilder’s Boro to win again
Middlesbrough v Swansea
Saturday, 15:00
Chris Wilder finally got his first win as Boro manager at Huddersfield last time out, but the performances have been much better than the bare form of a win, a draw and a loss in his three games so far. That is backed up by the underlying numbers, with his side sitting top of the xG ratio table in their last four games with a more than healthy 76.45%.
They have conceded four goals so far, but Wilder will be justified in thinking they have accounted for a season’s worth of bad luck. Two freak own-goals and a moment of madness from Sol Bamba account for three of them, and there is no way Middlesbrough will continue to be breached in such bizarre ways.
They host Swansea here, who looked to be getting the hang of Russell Martin’s style of football, but recent results have been poor and the performances no better. In that same four-game xG ratio table they sit third from bottom with a paltry 34.17%, a side capable of controlling possession but not what goes on in both boxes.
If these two sides turn up and perform by the form book then there is one overwhelmingly likely winner in the home side, and the Even-money quotes around Boro don’t go far enough to reflect the chance of them making that dominance count.
Oxford can take home three points
Sunderland v Oxford
Saturday, 15:00
This is a game between two sides with depleted squads due to injury and illness, but have reacted in very different ways. Sunderland’s form is poor, winning two of their last six games. Even in victory though, against Ipswich and Cambridge, there have been clear flaws in the performances and one could argue that they were fortunate to come away with the points, a view supported by the xG data that has Sunderland bang in mid-table.
Sunderland will be without Aiden McGeady and Luke O’Nien for the foreseeable, and without any fit recognisable left-backs, we can cut Lee Johnson some slack for this dip in performances with them likely to improve once players return, but in the short-term Sunderland are a side we should look to oppose.
Oxford, on the other hand, were seemingly galvanised by having 13 out for the visits of Fleetwood and Rotherham, playing some scintillating stuff against the former before grinding out a dogged 0-0 draw against the league’s best side. Some will be back for this one, although Karl Robinson is keeping his cards close to his chest as to who will remain sidelined, but either way the displays in the week mean Oxford will go into this one confident that they can come home with the three points.
Leaky defences mean goals at both ends
Millwall v Birmingham
Saturday, 15:00
It’s rare to see an odds-against quote for both teams to score in a Championship match, but that is the case for this clash between two sides who are known more for their defensive work rather than a free-scoring nature. That hasn’t been played out on the pitch for Millwall though in recent weeks, keeping just one clean sheet in their last nine and BTTS landing in five of their last six.
Birmingham have had a better time keeping the ball out. But an xG against of 1.58 per 90 in their last four makes me think a run where just two games in their last 13 has seen both teams score is a run that variance is sure to put paid to soon.
Both teams may not post the best attacking numbers, but focussing on the defensive issues is the way to go get the value in this one.
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
