The Not The Top 20 Podcast team are back in action in the Championship on Saturday, marking out three wagers that when combined, have been boosted to an 11/1 treble…
“When the stakes are this high, goals are often at a premium, so with two managers likely to do everything possible to avoid conceding first, and then anything they can to hang onto a lead, we have to oppose goals, and under 1.5 looks the way to play it.”
A comfortable win for Baggies
Peterborough v West Brom
Saturday, 20:00
Posh’s start to the season hasn’t gone to plan, with their only win thus far coming at home to a threadbare Derby thanks to a Siriki Dembele strike ten minutes into injury time.
It looked briefly like that dramatic win was going to be the catalyst for their campaign after then racing into a two-goal lead against Cardiff next time out, but that lead was squandered and an abject display in a 1-0 defeat to Preston North End followed, leaving Posh looking a weaker outfit now than the one who came up from League One last season.
Any doubts cast over the suitability of Valerian Ismael for West Brom given their ageing squad for his style of football have now surely been put to rest, having picked up 10pts from their four games and exerting a level of dominance throughout. The manager decided to rest all of his first team players for the visit of Arsenal in midweek, showing a disregard for complacency that reflects the brutal manner of their attritional and effective style.
Championship top-scorer Aden Flint scored twice against Posh for Cardiff, and that vulnerability from set-pieces plays right into West Brom’s hands here. They should justify their odds-on price in a game containing more than just the solitary goal, though at 4/6 just for the win, that will do for us.
Stopping Joe key to a Swift home win
Huddersfield v Reading
Saturday, 15:00
This is a game between two sides widely tipped to struggle this season, but early signs are more positive for the hosts who have picked up seven points from their first four games. Carlos Corberan‘s team seem to be trending in the right direction, winning back-to-back Championship matches against PNE and Sheff Utd, before putting in a very good performance against Everton in midweek where they can feel aggrieved to have been dumped out of the Carabao Cup.
Sorba Thomas and Levi Colwill have improved the Terriers and, although they still look short of a quality striker for the level, Josh Koroma has hit the ground running after his injury and that is a huge positive.
Reading, on the other hand, have been poor. Coventry were totally dominant in their victory last weekend, not accurately reflected in the 2-1 scoreline, and injuries to Lucas Joao and Ovie Ejaria has left the creative burden squarely on John Swift’s shoulders. Stop him and you stop Reading, and should Huddersfield match their recent performance levels there should be little to stop them racking up a third straight league win.
Low-scoring affair to start the day
Derby v Nottingham Forest
Saturday, 12:30
A huge rivalry between two of English football’s fallen giants hasn’t lost any of its ferociousness over the years, but both clubs come into this one embroiled in turmoil on and off the pitch that is threatening their second tier status.
Derby’s financial woes meant that they started the season as favourites for the drop and, despite having little in the way of squad depth, have shown more signs of life than many had expected. An away win at Hull before taking a point off Middlesbrough a couple of days later has shown that this is a side ready to be competitive, with veteran centre-backs Curtis Davies and Phl Jagielka performing admirably.
Wayne Rooney, despite being a world-class creator and goalscorer himself, is a coach whose sides always look solid enough defensively but often toothless going forward. His adversary on Saturday has earned himself a reputation as a successful pragmatist, yet Chris Hughton‘s time at Nottingham Forest will surely come to an end with a poor result here.
Pre-season optimism has waned after a desperate start to the season which has seen Forest lost all four league dgames. With new CEO Dane Murphy watching on, the man who brought Gerhard Struber and Valerian Ismael to Barnsley, Hughton will be desperate to avoid defeat here.
When the stakes are this high, goals are often at a premium, so with two managers likely to do everything possible to avoid conceding first, and then anything they can to hang onto a lead, we have to oppose goals, and under 1.5 looks the way to play it.
Source: Betfair UK English Championship
