Millwall v Huddersfield: Honours even at The Den

“We’re effectively backing the 0-0 and 1-1 correct scores here – 23/37 (32%) of the duos combined contests saw this wager pay-out whereas the odds imply just a 29% chance”

Millwall v Huddersfield
Wednesday March 16, 19:45
Sky Sports

Millwall held at home

Millwall chief Gary Rowett felt the Lions created the better opportunities in their 0-0 draw against Middlesbrough at The Den on Saturday – but admitted a point each was a fair reflection of an intense game. Scott Malone, Murray Wallace and Jake Cooper had the best chances for the hosts, who extended their unbeaten streak to seven (W5-D2-L0).

Boro came closest when Marcus Tavernier rattled the crossbar with a thunderbolt free-kick from 35 yards in the opening minutes but Rowett was pleased with his team’s efforts. He said, “We had a bit less of the ball than we would have liked, but they’re a difficult team to press. I thought we had the better chances in the game and we competed really well.”

Millwall’s squad has been stretched in recent weeks with injuries and suspension contributing to eight players being unavailable at the weekend. Daniel Ballard started despite carrying a knock, whilst Malone and George Evans also had issues against Boro. Mason Bennett started in place of Tyler Burey in the Lions’ only change.

Huddersfield surrender late on

Huddersfield head coach Carlos Corberan couldn’t hide his frustration after seeing his Terriers team throwaway a two-goal lead in the final 10 minutes at West Brom last Friday night. Town took a 24th-minute lead when Danny Ward charged down Sam Johnstone’s clearance and Ward doubled his tally in the 74th minute after tapping home a rebound.

But just as it looked as if Huddersfield were cruising to victory, two goals in the space of two minutes fired the Baggies level, including a controversial penalty. Corberan said: “It was very obvious that we were better than them for 80 minutes, but the awarding of the penalty changed the feeling and the emotion of the game. It was not a typical penalty.”

The Terriers were boosted by the return of Lewis O’Brien, whilst centre-back Levi Colwill was back in the squad after recovering from illness. Winger Josh Koroma missed out against West Brom but should be available again on Wednesday, giving Corberan vital options as Town bid to extend their 17-game unbeaten streak in the Championship (W9-D8-L0).

Millwall have been second-best in league encounters with Huddersfield over the past 15 years, registering an inferior W7-D3-L11 return against the Terriers, including a 1-0 reverse when the duo crossed swords back in October. The Lions have also been turned over in three of their most recent four home match-ups with Town here at The Den (W1-D0-L3).

A seven-game unbeaten run (W5-D2-L0), and just one league loss in 10 (W6-D3-L1) has seen Millwall 2.466/4 move to within striking distance of the Championship’s play-off positions. Gary Rowett’s team recorded seven clean sheets in that 10-game sample with their only defeat arriving against runaway league leaders Fulham. The Lions have W9-D6-L3 at home.

No team in the Championship has picked up more points since the start of December than Huddersfield 2.942/1, with the Terriers the only unbeaten outfit across the top two tiers during that same spell. Town have W7-D7-L5 in games as guests, losing just twice when travelling to top-14 clubs (W4-D4-L2), keeping their sheets clean on five occasions.

Honours even at The Den?

Only Hull’s (1.92) matches are seeing fewer goals per-game on average than Millwall (1.97) this season with the Lions delivering Under 2.5 Goals 1.574/7 profit in 24/36 (67%) fixtures. At The Den, those figures decrease even further with the Londoners posting an average of just 1.89 goals and 13/18 (72%) dates featuring fewer than three goals.

Huddersfield’s outings also favour a low-scoring approach with Carlos Corberan’s side returning rock-solid defensive numbers. No team has kept more shutouts than the Terriers’ tally of 15 this term and with Millwall also impressing at the back this calendar year, it’s no surprise to see the goal expectancy set so low ahead of Wednesday night’s clash.

When few goals are fancied, the likelihood of the draw increases. With that in mind, I’m happy to take the 3.3512/5 on offer via the Bet Builder for the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals. We’re effectively backing the 0-0 and 1-1 correct scores here – 23/37 (32%) of the duos combined contests saw this wager pay-out whereas the odds imply just a 29% chance.