Derby v Fulham: Rams can keep things competitive on Good Friday

Derby v Fulham
Friday April 15, 20:00
Sky Sports

Derby reliant on Pride Park form

Derby will look to their solid home form to keep alive their slim chance of escaping relegation. Defeat at Swansea last Saturday left the Rams nine points from safety in the Championship with only five games remaining and County’s next fixture on Good Friday just happens to be against runaway league leaders Fulham at Pride Park.

Asked if Derby can defy the odds and stay up, boss Wayne Rooney said: “It will be tough, as it has been all season. All we can do is keep trying to pick up as many points as we can. We haven’t got the easiest game coming up on Friday, but we know Fulham won’t enjoy coming to Pride Park. Our form at home has been really good and we will be competitive.”

Derby have won 10 and drawn seven of their 20 home league games this season. Only six teams in the division have a better home record despite the Rams sitting second bottom. The hosts have won seven and drawn two of their last 10 tussles at Pride Park and know failure to win against the table-toppers will almost certainly spell relegation.

Fulham suffer shock loss

Victory for Fulham could seal an immediate return to the Premier League but the Cottagers were handed a shock 3-1 loss at home to Coventry last weekend, delaying the Whites’ seemingly inevitable promotion. Marco Silva‘s men were two goals down inside 25 minutes and struggled to reassert control thereafter at Craven Cottage.

Substitute Bobby Decordova-Reid‘s neat finish set up a grandstand end to the game after Fulham had squandered a number of chances, with Rodrigo Muniz’s deflected effort almost finding its way in to equalise. But Coventry pocketed the points late on, tapping into an empty net following a howler from Cottagers captain Tim Ream in added time.

Speaking post-match, Silva accepted Fulham were architects of their own downfall. He said: “At this level it is tough but the winning mentality is about focus and concentration – this afternoon we lost the game because of individual mistakes. All the chances they had came from our mistakes and when you make these mistakes at this level it’s easy for them.”

Beleaguered Derby surprisingly denied Fulham top honours in the reverse encounter back in November, frustrating the league leaders in a 0-0 at Craven Cottage. The Rams have also enjoyed recent meetings with the Cottagers when facing-off at their Pride Park base, posting W4-D2-L1 in head-to-head showdowns going back to 2007/08.

Derby 6.806/1 would be just 20 points above the bottom-three if their 21-point penalty hadn’t been imposed (W12-D13-L17). They have only suffered three home league losses and boast a gutsy W10-D7-L3 overall return at Pride Park, avoiding defeat here against top-six opposition. County also own the fourth-best home defence.

Fulham 1.584/7 have been a cut above the Championship in 2021/22 and have really found form again since Christmas, posting W12-D2-L3 to stride well clear of the chasing pack. The Cottagers have plundered 43 goals during that 17-game sequence and Silva’s men also own the division’s best road record – collecting W13-D4-L3 when playing away.

Only three Championship clubs have seen fewer goals per-game on average this season than Derby. The Rams’ matches have produced a measly 2.12 goals per-game – unsurprisingly, 25 (61%) of County’s league outings have seen Under 2.5 Goals 1.855/6 backers collect with 12/20 (60%) of Pride Park fixtures featuring no more than two strikes.

In contrast, Fulham’s fixtures have featured 3.23 goals per-game yet only 52% of their league dates have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals backers. So there’s enough reason to swerve the 1.855/6 available on three or more goals in Good Friday’s showdown, and instead focus on Derby keeping this contest competitive.

Backing Derby +2 handicap and Under 2.5 Goals gives us a 2.305/4 shot via the Bet Builder – this wager allows Fulham to win by exactly one goal, a draw or a Derby home success as long as the match produced a maximum of two goals and provides a nice boost on the advertised Under 2.5 Goals offering. County are unlikely to go down without a fight.