Derby v Bournemouth: Cherries can consolidate top spot

“The Cherries (W12-D4-L1) have dropped only four points on their travels (W4-D2-L0) and are yet to trail for a single minute away from home”

Derby handed further points deduction

Derby were this week handed a further nine-point deduction after admitting breaches of English Football League accounting rules. The Rams had previously been docked 12 points for going into administration and have now agreed to the dismissal of their appeal against that decision meaning Wayne Rooney‘s side now reside on -3 points at the foot of the table.

Sitting 18 points away from safety, Derby appear almost certain to be doomed to League One. County have only spent four seasons outside the top two divisions of English football in their entire history – the last occasion in 1985-86 – and the club continues to operate in a perilous financial state yet Rooney has continued pledge his immediate future to the Rams.

Full-back Nathan Byrne will be missing for Derby this weekend after a red card in their 1-1 draw at Millwall before the international break. County had taken the lead when 19-year-old Festy Ebosele scored his first senior goal, from Tom Lawrence’s pass. However, the hosts levelled moments later in a well-contested content from The Den.

Bournemouth impress against Swansea

Championship table-toppers Bournemouth returned to winning ways with a clinical 4-0 victory over mid-table Swansea before the international break. After the Swans dominated early on, the Cherries went ahead when Philip Billing crossed for Dominic Solanke to fire home his 13th goal of the season. Solanke then volleyed in a second early after the break.

Scott Parker‘s side made it 3-0 when Ryan Christie had a shot blocked and Jaidon Anthony nodded in the rebound, and Jamal Lowe then teed up Anthony to drive in a fourth in stoppage time. Overall, Bournemouth won the shot count 16-7 despite enjoying just 40% possession with Cherries goalkeeper Mark Travers rarely threatened throughout.

Speaking post-match, Parker said: “I thought it was a big performance from us. We were brilliant overall – everything about us really. I thought we struggled early on. That was down to problems tactically that they were causing us a little bit. We fixed that and then from that point, I thought we were every a bit of a top team. Intensity – I just loved every bit of us.”

Derby have enjoyed their recent meetings with Bournemouth. The Rams are unbeaten in each successive league encounters against the Cherries (W5-D3-L0), winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season. That 1-0 success was part of four victories from five recent home match-ups against Bournemouth – the only defeat in that sample arriving back in 1985.

If points deductions weren’t applied, Derby 4.904/1 would be sitting 20th, three points above the drop-zone having W3-D9-L5. Wayne Rooney’s draw specialists have suffered a solitary reverse at Pride Park (W2-D5-L1) and have proven difficult to beat with just one defeat by a margin of two goals or more this season. County are yet to concede three goals in a game.

Bournemouth 1.824/5 have enjoyed a strong start to the campaign. The Cherries (W12-D4-L1) have dropped only four points on their travels (W4-D2-L0) and are yet to trail for a single minute away in the Championship this season. Scott Parker’s side also sit inside the top two for Expected Points (xP), Expected Goals (xG) and the majority of major metrics.

Goals have been in short supply when Derby have been involved. The Rams’ matches have averaged only 1.71 goals per-game with 12/17 (71%) fixtures featuring Under 2.5 Goals 1.654/6. Only one of County’s opening encounters have produced four goals or more but Both Teams To Score 1.9520/21 has banked in five of the hosts’ eight Pride Park showdowns.

Bournemouth have seen Overs cash on 10 (59%) occasions under Parker yet the Cherries have also largely been involved in a relatively low-scoring affairs. The visitors’ contests have produced only 2.41 goals per-game with just two breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier. On the road, the Dorset guests have shipped just one goal in eight outings.

Considering Bournemouth’s remarkable defensive resolve on their travels, alongside Derby’s penchant for tight, competitive tussles, it makes sense to oppose a high-scoring clash. We can grab an attractive 2.206/5 on a Bournemouth win alongside Under 3.5 Goals, a price that holds plenty of appeal considering the plight of the two teams.