Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as the two Seville clubs prepare to battle for the last top-four spot…
“With third playing fourth at the same time as this game, all Betis can do is win and hope.”
Espanyol to get first win in six
Espanyol v Valencia
Saturday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
More than a month has passed since either of these sides won a game, and Infogol can’t find much to choose between them. However, the hosts have a slight edge, and are chasing what would be a 10th home league win on their top-flight return. It would also represent a first league double of the season, with Valencia handing Vicente Moreno’s team their only away victory in La Liga.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 15.0014/1
Celta to remain top-half contenders
Celta Vigo v Elche
Saturday, 20:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Celta have had an inconsistent season, winning back-to-back games on only two occasions, but they have a chance to finish strongly and end in the top half. They host an Elche side averaging just 0.88 xGF per game away from home, and Infogol’s model backs them to claim a victory which could see them go into the final week of the season as high as 10th place.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.808/1
Athletic to rediscover scoring touch
Athletic Bilbao v Osasuna
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
After two scoreless games, Athletic will want to get back on track at San Mamés. Their 0.79 home xGA average remains the best return in the league, while they’re also averaging 1.93 xGF, but will need to be more clinical than they were in the goalless draw at home to Valencia if they want to overcome an Osasuna side who can move within two points of them with a win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Atléti to secure third spot
Atlético Madrid v Sevilla
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Back-to-back victories have Atlético Madrid assured of Champions League football thanks to their head-to-head advantage over fifth-place Betis, but they’ll still be aiming higher. Three points against a Sevilla side a point behind them at kickoff would lock up third, and the visitors are coming off three straight draws, the most recent of which brought 18 shots against Mallorca but no goals.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.0010/1
Madrid to rebound from derby loss
Cádiz v Real Madrid
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
After falling short against Atlético Madrid last time out, the champions will want to play themselves into a bit of form before the Champions League final. Cádiz have been a bit of a bogey team for Los Blancos, shutting them out twice in their last three meetings, but the hosts’ home form hasn’t been the best and Infogol’s model points to an away win for Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Barça to win fourth straight game
Getafe v Barcelona
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Barcelona have won four of their last five, averaging just 0.84 xGA in the process, and two more victories would leave them just a point shy of last season’s total. It won’t be easy against Getafe, who have a 1.01 home xGA average, but Infogol tips Xavi’s men to have too much for opponents who are very nearly mathematically safe from the drop after going four unbeaten.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 12.0011/1
Levante to condemn Alavés to relegation
Levante v Alavés
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Alavés’ midweek victory over Espanyol kept them alive, but they’ll need to produce their home form on the road if they want to stand any chance of survival. Top scorer Joselu was the difference-maker in the reverse fixture, giving Alavés a late victory, but an away average of a huge 2.23 xGA continues to threaten to send them down and already-relegated Levante can help them along.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 13.0012/1
Rayo to deny Mallorca
Mallorca v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Mallorca’s away form will make them feel this is the game they need to win if they want to stay up, but Infogol is worried for Javier Aguirre’s team. Rayo are unbeaten in three on the road, including a win at Camp Nou, and Andoni Iraola’s side have been given the narrowest of edges over their fellow promoted side as the hosts aim to avoid an immediate return from whence they came.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 36.0035/1
Betis to ramp up top four pressure
Real Betis v Granada
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
With third playing fourth at the same time as this game, all Betis can do is win and hope. The first part should be manageable, at least, with visitors Granada averaging 1.88 xGA per game on the road and giving Manuel Pellegrini’s side hope of creating plenty of chances. A win for the hosts and a defeat for Sevilla in Madrid would keep the top four dream alive for another week at least.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Villarreal to continue strong finish
Villarreal v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
After winning convincingly at Rayo on Thursday, Villarreal have a chance to climb to sixth with a weekend win. Unai Emery’s team won at Anoeta earlier in the season, meaning another win at El Madrigal – where they are averaging 2.26 xGF per game – would lift them above their opponents on head-to-head results going into the last game of the 2021-22 season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
