FA Cup Final: Where Liverpool v Chelsea will be won

“Tuchel focuses on speed in the attacking transitions against Liverpool, instructing his players to sit a little deeper than usual in order to draw Liverpool out.”

For once, we have an FA Cup final between two of the best teams in the country. Saturday’s game at Wembley is the first time since 2007 in which two of the Premier League top three go head-to-head, and better still Thomas Tuchel and Jurgen Klopp have developed a fascinating rivalry over the last 18 months.

Klopp is yet to beat Tuchel, discounting a penalty shootout victory in a 0-0 draw in the EFL Cup final earlier this year. There have been three consecutive draws and a 1-0 win for Chelsea in their first meeting in March 2021. Nobody else has that kind of record against Liverpool.

But Chelsea under Tuchel have not faced Liverpool at quite such a low ebb before. Victory over Leeds United on Wednesday was their first in four matches, while Liverpool continue to look relentless; it takes a truly special performance to even draw against this team, and Klopp’s side will likely relish the break from the tension of their title challenge.

Here’s a look at the four key battles that will define the game:

Werner’s pace v Van Dijk-led high line

Tuchel focuses on speed in the attacking transitions against Liverpool, instructing his players to sit a little deeper than usual in order to draw Liverpool out. He can always be seen frantically gesticulating on the sidelines for greater verticality; for a more direct ground pass that cuts through the lines and sets Chelsea behind Klopp’s high line.

There is no doubt this will be a major feature, particularly on the large Wembley pitch. Surprisingly, Kai Havertz started alone up front in a 3-4-2-1 formation in the EFL Cup final, but surely with Timo Werner in good form he will get the nod on Saturday. His pace and intelligent movement on the shoulder of the last defender could cause problems for Virgil van Dijk and the rest of his defence.

That is especially true should Werner lean out to the left. With Mason Mount moving across from the ten position, these two may be able to combine on the counter-attack to get behind the free-roaming Trent Alexander-Arnold. Romelu Lukaku’s brace against Wolves, with the second scored from an attacking transition, makes him an intriguing option from the bench.

James’ runs will target timid Robertson

The other potentially fruitful route to goal for Chelsea is via Reece James. He hasn’t been in the best form recently but given how tight the game will be, how wary each manager is of the other, and how crowded the midfield battle (more on that below) Chelsea need to focus on their overlapping wing-backs.

Andrew Robertson was ‘rested’ for the 2-1 win at Aston Villa on Tuesday, but more accurately he was dropped for poor form – which, to be fair, is probably the result of tiredness. The Liverpool left-back is not having the easiest time and could be vulnerable to James charging directly at him, especially with Havertz also dipping into the right half-space during periods of sustained Chelsea pressure.

Konstantinos Tsimikas played at Villa Park and was quite erratic, giving away numerous chances to the hosts despite also being productive at the other end. Whichever left-back Klopp picks, Tuchel will be wise to target them.

Chelsea back three makes Thiago significant

Fabinho’s injury significantly weakens Liverpool’s ability to prevent counter-attacks, and that could prove to have the biggest impact on this game. N’Golo Kante and Matteo Kovacic will look to carry the ball off the back of the Liverpool midfield, creating a match full of dangerous attacking transitions for Chelsea.

The midfield battle could be definitive for Liverpool, chiefly because they tend to struggle against a back three/five, as we saw in the recent 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Klopp’s wide forwards like to operate between full-back and centre-back, a space shut down by a back five, while in Tuchel’s system Chelsea’s wing-backs will also be free to push up to meet Liverpool’s full-backs.

Thiago Alcantara is set to play against Chelsea for the first time. His incredible technique and capacity to break the lines with a quick forward pass will be very useful against Tuchel’s two-man midfield, especially if things are clogged up for Liverpool in the final third. His head-to-head with Kante will be fascinating to watch.

Mane pressure could force Azpilicueta mistake

Chelsea have conceded 17 goals in their last ten matches in all competitions and most of these have been the result of avoidable mistakes; they have become sloppy at the back, losing focus as their season peters out. Of those 17, four were unforced individual errors in defence, four were opposition counter-attacks, and four were gifting possession in their own third.

Liverpool are the best pressing team in the world. They will swarm the Chelsea defenders after losing the ball as well as when Chelsea take their short goal kicks. Judging by recent form this is when Tuchel’s team will be most vulnerable.

Sadio Mane, starting as the number nine, will be particularly sharp at applying pressure to defenders, and viewers should keep an eye on how he approaches Cesar Azpilicueta. Chelsea’s right centre-back has been particularly error-prone of late.

It is this final point – Chelsea’s hesitant form – that gives Liverpool the edge despite the tactical advantages that appear to be in Chelsea’s favour.