Luton v Huddersfield: Tight first leg tussle in-store

Luton conclude campaign with a win

Luton were a non-league side only eight years ago but the Hatters secured their place in the Championship play-offs with a 1-0 victory over lowly Reading last Saturday at Kenilworth Road. Harry Cornick‘s goal in first-half stoppage time earned top honours for Nathan Jones‘ outfit, arriving an embarrassing mistake by Royals goalkeeper Orjan Nyland.

Luton should have been ahead early on as Cameron Jerome was sent through on goal. And the Welsh forward came close again in the second half as he crashed a shot against the bar, while James Bree also curled a free-kick just wide. The Hatters had 16 attempts at goal overall, but a solitary strike was all that was required to cement their top-six finish.

Speaking post-match, Jones said: “I’m just glad we won the game and we got to 75 points, which was our goal at the start of the season. We’ve had a magnificent season, we were here two years ago to stay in the league and now we’ve got an opportunity to get out of the league. Success for us realistically is making sure that we don’t go out of the league.”

Injuries have been an issue for Luton in recent weeks but Town were able to field skipper Sonny Bradley from the start against Reading, while Bree, Jordan Clark and Allan Campbell all returned to bolster the Hatters’ options. The hosts are also still hoping to have top scorer Elijah Adebayo back to full fitness for Friday night’s fixture.

Huddersfield finish in third

Left-back Harry Toffolo and forward Danny Ward were both on-target as Huddersfield ended the regular Championship campaign with a sixth win in seven to secure third-place in the division. The Terriers were convincing 2-0 winners over Bristol City at the John Smith’s Stadium with both goals arriving before half-time for Carlos Corberan‘s charges.

Toffolo jinked his way into the box and fired home to put his side ahead just after the half-hour mark. Town, already sure of a play-off place, then took control of proceedings and doubled their advantage shortly before half-time when Duane Holmes’ low cross from the right was bundled over the line by Ward. A City comeback never looked likely thereafter.

Huddersfield’s overall 64-goal haul in the Championship is their biggest total since 1970 – when they were promoted to the top-flight, and Corberan was keen to enjoy the moment post-match. He said, “The highest position we could achieve at the start of the day was third in the table, so to achieve that position is really pleasing. I’m proud of my players efforts.”

Though attention quickly turned towards Luton with the Spaniard adding, “Against Luton it will be very demanding. The season is over and what we need to do is to try to learn a lot from the things we have been doing, to be the most competitive team we can be in the next two games. It is going to be very difficult but we will prepare as best as we can to achieve.”

Luton haven’t enjoyed recent meetings with Huddersfield. The Hatters are winless in their last four head-to-head encounters with the Terriers (W0-D3-L1), losing 2-0 in the most recent match-up. Nathan Jones’ troops failed to score in both of their regular league meetings against Huddersfield this term, a 0-0 home draw and a 2-0 away defeat.

Luton 2.546/4 earned a strong W12-D7-L4 return at Kenilworth Road through the regular Championship campaign, and the Hatters proved particularly tricky to for the league’s elite. Nathan Jones’ team posted an unbeaten W4-D5-L0 when welcoming top-10 teams to Bedfordshire, recording five clean sheets to highlight their defensive strength.

Only Nottingham Forest boast a better points return than Huddersfield 3.1511/5 since the start of December. Tipped by many as ante-post relegation candidates, Carlos Corberan’s troops have shown real resilience to lose just seven of 42 showdowns against sides outside of the top-two (W22-D13-L7). The Terriers have also claimed W4-D3-L2 away at top-10 rivals.

Goals could be at a premium on Friday night with EFL play-off semi-final first legs traditionally cagey affairs. Indeed, 22 (73%) of the most recent first leg fixtures across the three divisions have featured Under 2.5 Goals 1.674/6 since 2017, while longer term trends going back to the beginning of 2000 also point towards a tight tussle.

A chunky 69% of EFL play-off semi-final first legs have seen Under 2.5 Goals land, while 40% of matches have produced no more than a solitary strike. The average goals per-game across these fixtures is only 2.09 and another low-scoring showdown looks most likely at Kenilworth Road considering the two teams’ strengths, plus the magnitude of the match-up.

Naturally, a low-scoring contest brings the draw into play and with the two teams proving adept at avoiding defeat against the division’s best opponents, I’m quite happy to combine Under 2.5 Goals and the Draw at a generous 3.6013/5 on the Sportsbook. We’ll be paid out should the game end goalless, or in a 1-1 stalemate.