FA Cup Final Betting: Draw appeals with Chelsea frustrating Liverpool again

“Does it matter that Jurgen Klopp has never won this trophy? Is it relevant that Chelsea have incredibly participated in 45.5% of the FA Cup finals this century?”

For reasons that are hard to determine, Liverpool’s FA Cup final against Chelsea on Saturday is believed by some to be the Reds’ most straightforward challenge as they chase a historic quadruple.

Besting Real Madrid in the Champions League final will require enormous fortitude, especially with Los Blancos establishing themselves as the comeback kings of Europe in recent months. Carlo Ancelotti’s men have romped to a 35th La Liga title and up front possess Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr who between them have 94 direct goal involvements this season.

In the league meanwhile, Liverpool’s draw with Spurs at the weekend means there is no more margin for error across three games that demand maximum points. That and a little luck elsewhere.

Chelsea, though, are no longer the force they were throughout the latter half of last term, as Thomas Tuchel’s transformation took immediate hold, nor are they the same side that topped the table this time out as recently as early December.

Prior to their trip to Elland Road this Wednesday, the Blues have won only twice in their last seven league outings, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game along the way. Highlighting a psychological frailty, 13 of their last 15 concessions have come in the second half.

A late collapse at home to Wolves at the weekend further epitomised their struggles that can partly be attributed to an unprecedented situation off the pitch that has saddled the club with sanctions.

Exacerbating all of the above are rumours of player unrest that grow louder by the week. In Romelu Lukaku, Chelsea have a £100m forward who has scored only one more than the Blues’ holding midfielder Jorginho in the Premier League this season.

Okay, maybe it’s not so hard to work out why the FA Cup is widely being pushed as Liverpool’s most trouble-free passage to success. It just happens to be flawed thinking, that’s all.

A fresh stalemate

That’s because Saturday’s showpiece event will very likely be nip-and-tuck with just a scant chance here and there separating the teams. For evidence of this we only need recall the previous three meetings between behemoths who were considered title rivals going into 2022. Pertinently, all three contests ended in a draw.

The latter of these of course was a goalless affair in the Carabao Cup final back in February that was eventually decided by penalties and, although there is a lot to unpack from this fixture – not least the direct comparison in being a major cup final played out on the Wembley turf – what most jumps out is Liverpool’s dominance in the stats.

The Reds had almost double the number of shots as Chelsea that day and restricted their opponents to just two corners over 120 minutes.

This meagre corner-count is worth staying with briefly. Only Liverpool, Manchester City and Southampton have amassed more corners than the Blues all season. Yet in their trio of meetings against Liverpool, Chelsea have averaged a pitiful 3.6 per game.

Include a low corner-count for Tuchel’s men in any Bet Builder you make.

As for shots, Liverpool racked up a healthy 54 across the three matches – 19 on target – but by only scoring three times we again find an inconsistency in how these teams usually perform compared to how they perform when they meet.

Jurgen Klopp’s prolific attacking machine boast a 9.7% chance conversion rate in the Premier League this term. In their three games against Chelsea that drops to 5.5%.

Pulisic primed for another final goal

A fundamental reason for Liverpool’s frustrations in these games is the brilliance of Edouard Mendy, the Senegalese keeper who was outstanding on each occasion. The 30-year-old will need to be similarly impenetrable again on Saturday.

That, however, is not to suggest it’s all been one-way traffic in this season’s encounters at Anfield, Stamford Bridge and latterly Wembley. Indeed, in February’s final, it was Chelsea who arguably had the best of the chances, with Mason Mount spurning two gilt-edged opportunities either side of the break. Romelu Lukaku can count himself unfortunate for having what looked a perfectly good goal ruled out by VAR.

The Belgian came on as a sub and it’s interesting that Tuchel typically prefers an attacking triumvirate of Mount, Kai Havertz, and Christian Pulisic to start against Liverpool, possibly believing their clever movement finds the gaps that Liverpool’s defensive high-line occasionally affords.

All three have got on the scoresheet against Liverpool in the past 12 months with Pulisic also notching in a 2020 encounter and for that matter opening the scoring in that year’s FA Cup final against winners Arsenal.

Draw is overdue

Does it matter that Jurgen Klopp has never won this trophy? Is it relevant to the point of being an advantage that Chelsea have incredibly participated in 45.5% of the FA Cup finals this century?

Arguably, both are mere quirks and what is more important are the many reasons why Liverpool start as evens favourites.

All season long, across every competition, the ravenous Reds have averaged 2.3 goals per game with Mo Salah alone scoring every 125 minutes. At the back, bolstered as ever by an imperious Virgil Van Dijk, they have conceded only three times in their last 900 minutes of Premier League action.

Yet still, we come back to those three Chelsea v Liverpool clashes in 2021/22, namely how the Blues mostly knocked the Reds out of their rhythm and frustrated them to the point of snatching at opportunities. An FA Cup final hasn’t gone to extra-time for five years now and a draw feels overdue.

So will this be Liverpool’s easiest shot at glory of the three routes they have remaining? Tell that to the shattered players on 120 minutes.