Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions for a full programme of midweek fixtures…
“Barcelona have seen their home form tail off of late, but their 0.89 home xGA average remains one of the most daunting records in La Liga.”
Betis to stay fifth with win
Valencia v Real Betis
Tuesday, 18:00
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More dropped points on Saturday means Real Betis may have to give up on their Champions League dream, but a fifth place finish and a cup win wouldn’t be a terrible season.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side have overperformed against their numbers on the road, but they shouldn’t need too special a performance against a Valencia side without a win in their last six league games.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2
Granada to wait on safety bid
Granada v Athletic Bilbao
Tuesday, 19:00
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Granada’s 2.13 xGA at home will continue to worry Aitor Karanka despite his team picking up a huge win at Mallorca over the weekend. Opponents Athletic remain harder to break down at home than on the road, while the reverse fixture ended all-square at San Mamés, but Infogol’s model backs Marcelino’s men to get the win and leave the hosts battling for survival.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Barcelona to move closer to sealing second
Barcelona v Celta Vigo
Tuesday, 20:30
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Barcelona have seen their home form tail off of late, but their 0.89 home xGA average remains one of the most daunting records in La Liga. They shouldn’t be caused too many problems by a Celta side struggling for goals on the road, though Santi Mina’s match-winning double at Camp Nou at the tail end of last season will remind the hosts that it’s not a foregone conclusion.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Alavés to give themselves hope
Alavés v Espanyol
Wednesday, 18:00
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With six points to make up in three games, it’s now or never for Alavés. Julio Velázquez’s side are coming into this game off the back of a 4-0 loss at Celta, the kind of result which would seem conclusive for many. But six of their seven wins this term have come at Mendizorrotza and they’re considered slightly more likely than Espanyol to take the points in what Infogol expects to be a close tie.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2 or 1-1 @ 7.006/1
Osasuna to break Getafe’s resistance
Osasuna v Getafe
Wednesday, 18:00
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Getafe have gone three games without conceding, averaging just 0.58 xGA in the process, but Infogol’s model anticipated that changing at El Sadar. Osasuna have won two of their last three at home, with only Real Madrid beating them, and have created plenty in the process. A third from four would strengthen their hold on a top-half place while ensuring Getafe can’t call themselves safe just yet.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.50
Sevilla to keep Mallorca in the mire
Sevilla v Mallorca
Wednesday, 19:30
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After keeping their heads well above water for the first half of the season, Mallorca are in danger of dropping straight back down to the second tier. The last thing they’ll want right now is a trip to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, where Sevilla have lost just once in the league all season, and Infogol’s model backs the home side to shut down Javier Aguirre’s men over 90 minutes.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2
Atléti to take the points at Elche
Elche v Atlético Madrid
Wednesday, 20:30
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Elche’s weekend defeat at Cádiz saw them amass just 0.07 xGF over 90 minutes, and they’ll need to be much better if they’re to stand a chance against last season’s champions. Atléti are still looking to make sure of a top-four finish, and the quick turnaround after Sunday’s derby won’t make things straightforward, but a 1.54 xGF away average is high for the league and can serve them well.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 14.0013/1
La Real to earn first win in five
Real Sociedad v Cádiz
Thursday, 18:00
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An away average of 1.74 xGA per game has been a problem for Cádiz, but they’ve ensured they have plenty to play for over the final weeks of the season. Two late Mikel Oyarzabal goals gave La Real the points in the reverse fixture back in September, though, and Infogol’s model backs Imanol Alguacil’s team to complete a league double and leave the visitors looking over their shoulders.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.007/1
Villarreal to dig out a win
Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal
Thursday, 19:00
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Villarreal responded to their Champions League elimination by coming within moments of beating Sevilla on Sunday, but a late equaliser means three more points at Vallecas are essential to keep them in the hunt for Europe. Opponents Rayo have averaged just 0.89 xGF per game across their last six, but still picked up enough points during that run to keep themselves in the league, and Infogol backs the visitors to take all three points here.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Levante’s hopes to fade at the Bernabéu
Real Madrid v Levante
Thursday, 20:30
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Levante’s Friday night win showed they’re not prepared to lay down and die just yet, but they need a win against the champions to keep their season alive. An away average of 1.94 xGA per game has been Levante’s undoing, even if they’ve underperformed their numbers in general, and Infogol’s model expects this to be one challenge too far for the relegation battlers.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 12.50
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
