Champions League Final Early Look: Liverpool to easily beat Real Madrid

“Nevertheless there will be times when Vinicius gets the chance to stand up Alexander-Arnold and take him on, something that happened over and over again on Wednesday against Kyle Walker.”

A lot of people would have loved to see a Liverpool versus Manchester City Champions League final, not least because it seems like a fitting end to a campaign dominated by these two clubs.

But one thing is for sure: any Liverpool supporters watching Real Madrid’s incredible late comeback on Wednesday evening should be delighted to have avoided that fate.

Man City and Liverpool are evenly matched. Real Madrid are significantly weaker. They have somehow ridden through the Champions League knockout rounds via three remarkable comebacks, having required late turnarounds in all three of their ties. It is noteworthy that Real were outplayed for the majority of all three and required those second legs, and sometimes extra time, to heave themselves back into it.

One 90-minute match does not suit their style, neither does playing it away from the Bernabeu.

What’s more, in all of their games so far Real Madrid have ridden their luck as opponents miss guilt-edged chances. Liverpool just need to start sharply and believe in their own ability to win this final relatively comfortably.

And yet, Real Madrid continually defy expectations. They have an unknowable magic in this competition and can never be written off.

Salah and Trent to target weak left side

Carlo Ancelotti’s side lack tactical sophistication. It is a team of ‘moments’, of individual quality shining through from within a system that does not press particularly hard or create any kind of cohesive on-the-ball shapes that suggest Real are a modern football club. In theory, that means they will be a bit static at times in their 4-3-3 shape.

Most notably, they are weak on the left side, where left-back Ferland Mendy is not very good in a one-on-one or at tracking attackers. His weakness is compounded by the fact Real tend to lean over to their right side defensively, with Federico Valverde dropping back and Vinicius Junior staying high alongside Karim Benzema.

Mohamed Salah, out for revenge after his injury in the 2018 final, should be able to dominate Mendy, who will get no support from Vinicius. Toni Kroos will look to get across but has Trent Alexander-Arnold to contend with; Liverpool should have a major overload on this side – one that wins them the game.

Modric and Kroos to be hunted down

For Real to stand a chance, they need Kroos and Luka Modric to find space in the match to start running things, even if only for a few moments towards the end of the contest. However, it is very difficult to see how they can achieve this against such a hard-pressing Liverpool midfield three, which has historically managed to swarm everyone who tries to confront them.

Man City kept them very quiet, largely because Real knew they would have to sit deep and wait for chances to counter, and Ancelotti’s midfielders only got into the contest once Kevin de Bruyne came off and Guardiola brought Fernandinho on to play alongside Rodri – a defensive move that handed Real’s midfield initiative.

Klopp will be braver and more aggressive throughout. Thiago Alcantara and Naby Keita or Jordan Henderson will help keep Real pinned, meaning Modric and Kroos ado not find the right spaces to create many chances.

Vinicius v Trent a mismatch

However, Real may just be able to launch successful counter-attacks against Liverpool’s high defensive line – which is clearly going to be the preferred route to goal as Ancelotti shows pragmatism in Paris.

Vinicius has been sensational off the left wing in the Champions League this season and undoubtedly his individual tussle with Alexander-Arnold is crucial. The Liverpool right-back will be ahead of the play for long periods, giving Vinicius the chance to break free down that left side, particularly if Karim Benzema can find room to get on the ball in transition moments and set him away.

Modric using the direct route with his passing, and Benzema dropping off to link, are the two ways Vinicius can counter successfully. The former should largely be stopped by Liverpool’s relentless midfield energy, while the latter can be stamped out by Fabinho – who needs to spend the match constantly looking over his shoulder.

Nevertheless there will be times when Vinicius gets the chance to stand up Alexander-Arnold and take him on, something that happened over and over again on Wednesday against Kyle Walker. The Liverpool right-back does not have the pace to deal with this situation, giving Real Madrid fans hope.

But it is the only area of the pitch in which Real Madrid hold an advantage. In every other sense Liverpool are by far the better team, and they really should be able to blow away what is a typical Ancelotti side: built on broad strokes, sitting behind the ball and looking a little lost when faced with a blizzard of tactical sophistication.