League Two Tips: Orient can spoil Tranmere’s season

Rovers’ away form not up to scratch

Leyton Orient 2.68/5 v Tranmere Rovers 2.915/8; the draw 3.613/5

Away form has cost Tranmere a play-off spot. Normally at this stage, any team needing a win in the promotion shake up would be priced odds-on to win. There is one reason they are not: Rovers have not won away in eight attempts (two draws).

Micky Mellon says the team know the reasons for their poor away record and have to learn from them. Losing two Saturdays ago at Stevenage was the killer blow for their promotion hopes, realistically. Now, only a win will do to reach the top seven plus they must rely on other results: Swindon must lose; Sutton must not win.

Just four wins away all season has hindered their promotion bid. But so have a lack of goals. Level with Stevenage on 16 away, only bottom club Scunthorpe (14) have recorded fewer on their travels. Opta add that only Rochdale (5) and Scunthorpe (1) have picked up fewer than Tranmere’s seven points away.

Tranmere have lacked a regular focal point up front, with Kane Hemmings, signed from Burton in January, only recently emerging as a reliable goalgetter, taking his tally to just seven this season with three in the past six games. He and Josh Hawkes (6) netted in the win over Oldham last weekend which still gives them a sniff. But for much of the season veteran defender Peter Clarke (4) has been top scorer. Josh McPake, on loan since January, has not had the same impact that he did at Harrogate on loan last season.

Meanwhile, Leyton Orient are now fourth in the 10-game form table. Richie Wellens’ men are not likely to succumb to Tranmere’s recent habit of drawing (three in six, four in 10). Not least, because as Opta point out they have scored twice or more in their past four league matches. The O’s have not drawn in those 10. Only Forest Green and Hartlepool have done so against them under Wellens, in his first two games when he was just getting to know them.

Wellens talked, after beating Crawley, of his team developing a “winning mentality”. They had it earlier in the season when, for a while, a play-off bid of their own looked on. However, perhaps an FA Cup run distracted them because the goals dried up for Aaron Drinan, Theo Archibald, Ruel Sotiriou and Harry Smith. Or everyone else. Failing to bulge the net more than twice in 10 games from mid-December cost Kenny Jackett the Brisbane Road hot-seat.

Those who are responding to their new manager can be forgiven for losing at home to promotion-chasing Northampton two weeks ago. They have every incentive to make a last impression before Wellens can bring in replacements from mid-May. The visitors have had their chances this season and their away form does not invoke much confidence of a positive result.

Clough clear on the winning task

Mansfield 2.26/5 v Forest Green 2.77/4; the draw 3.9

Nigel Clough must feel very strange when he says his Stags side have “absolute clarity” that they must at least draw to secure a play-off spot. The assignment comes with added pressure now, because the final day fixture is against the deposed long-term leaders Forest Green. Rob Edwards’ men need to win to have any chance of snatching the title back from Exeter’s clutches. They must better the Grecians’ result to do so.

Mansfield have the momentum – 10 points from six games, compared to Rovers’ five. A 2-2 draw on Monday at Salford killed their automatic promotion chances, as Clough says, because it is highly unlikely that Scunthorpe can take points at Bristol Rovers. Even if Northampton, holding third, don’t win at Barrow.

Rhys Oates believes they can finish the job of promotion – and with good reason: the hosts have gained their best points tally in 20 years. The trouble is with this match it is only seven games since the pair last met – when Forest Green’s Josh March scored the only goal.

George Lapslie has at least restored himself to the side after being sent off that day, scoring a Stevenage were overcome 11 days ago. However, Mansfield have not been in the best of touch if you consider Stevenage are not the strongest side, nor are Crawley who they also beat, but Sutton – a side with promotion ambitions – came to Field Mill and won. For me, that draw at Salford was indicative of the team’s strengths and weaknesses. They came from behind, then led but conceded. Stephen McLaughlin obliged twice, taking his goals tally to seven for the season, all since early December.

Edwards’ visitors seem to have been in freefall, with just one win – over luckless Oldham – and two draws in the past six games. They lost at dispirited Harrogate last weekend. Do they have the energy or fight to battle for the title?

Jamille Matt, who scored the consolatory penalty to take his goals tally to 19, would say yes. He has two goals in four games and Regan Hendry has pitched in with two in six games. But Rovers have really missed Matt Stevens, since his injury. Mansfield may well win. They should have the edge at home, where they have won their past two games without conceding.

Rovers’ away form not up to scratch

Exeter 2.3411/8 v Port Vale 3.55/2; the draw 3.55/2

Port Vale interim boss Andy Crosby says his players need to cut out the emotion at St James’ Park. The Valiants need a point to guarantee a play-off spot. If they win, they could still clinch automatic promotion (unlikely: see above). If they lose, they could drop to eighth. They have everything to play for.

How do sports people switch off from the target at hand in order to achieve it? Ronnie O’Sullivan did it last Monday, achieving a seventh World Snooker title. But football is a team sport: even if the best group psychologist were on hand, there are a dozen or so players to mould into one unit. Many, many things could go wrong.

In any case, the visitors face quite a tall order against Exeter, who could go up as champions and do not come into the game off the back of a string of wins. In fact they have lost their last three matches. They have been so close. Victory against Hartlepool on Good Friday made it eight wins from nine and the third automatic promotion spot seemed assured.

Former player Phil Sproson, now a radio pundit, suggests they need to revert to a flat back four, from a 3-5-2 shape. Ben Garrity is holding it together, showing prominence practically as a third striker with 12 goals, promising that the visitors can handle the pressure. His strike tally matches forward Jamie Proctor’s dozen for the season. Proctor has five goals in eight games and Vale the third-best League Two away record, in terms of points, with Newport (36).

Will that be enough against the leaders, who have the second best home record, accumulating 48 points? It is often the case that a team that goes to the top for the first time in a season doesn’t stay there. In autumn. At this stage of the season it is surely definitive for Matt Taylor’s men. He’s delighted with his charges, and hopes that the club can keep the likes of homegrown Matt Jay. The midfielder has netted twice in the past three games. Having netted 14 goals, he might not have been top scorer had Tim Dieng (12) or Sam Nombe (8) been fit the whole season.

I predicted a few weeks ago that Exeter could be fighting for the title on the final day and Port Vale might need something to keep their promotion bid alive. I expected them to be in third position, though. I didn’t expect that it could be all or nothing.

Opta point out Port Vale have not lost four league games in a row since October 2020. However, they might well do so because the momentum is with the Grecians who are a fine price to win.

Swindon to out-score their hosts

Walsall 4.67/2 v Swindon 1.84/5; the draw 4.3100/30

I usually find reasons for a draw somewhere, but there’s no point trying to force it. This weekend, opportunities look scarce. Swindon might face a Walsall side not only in a bit of form but out for revenge after a 5-0 bashing back in February. However, the Robins’ away form should see them through. They have 40 points on the road, League Two’s best return.

Which leaves us with a problem. Swindon are odds-on, a price I never like, so I will take them to win 2-1 at 9.08/1, because I think both teams can score.

Boss Ben Garner is still sticking to the line that nobody gave them a chance after a summer of turmoil last year. Well, he clearly wasn’t reading the right media. I’m cheerleading for them on Saturday afternoon, seeking a return on a pre-season tip that they would reach the play-offs at 6.05/1. Relegated Scunthorpe have already done me a favour at the same price.

To guarantee a top seven spot, they must win at Walsall, for whom Brendan Kiernan is still keen to add goals. The midfielder believes he should have scored more than five this season. Boss Micky Flynn’s attention is more on youth. Having played Jack Shaw off the bench in the draw at Colchester, he might give others a chance, declaring that bringing through the youth will save money! With Conor Wilkinson out, the focus will be on George Miller up front to add to the hosts’ decent home record of 10 wins and five draws.

Can Swindon hold things together? If we are talking defensively, Opta point out that Walsall and Swindon are the two sides in League Two this season that have conceded the most goals from set pieces (including penalties). The Saddlers have conceded 24 and the Robins 23 times.

Harry McKirdy’s return seems to have made all the difference for the visitors. After a month out injured, the mercurial wide man scored twice at Hartlepool to spark a run of three wins which have give them real momentum again. A 4-1 win at Harrogate in the away game before that showed they could manage without him, if absolutely necessary. Josh Davison and Louie Barry both scored twice that day, just as Swindon’s “away kings” title seemed under threat after a draw at Rochdale and defeats at Crawley and Exeter.