Premier League Acca Builder: Back wounded City to drop points at dogged Toon

“Jurgen Klopp will need a specific plan, and most likely it will be on Fabinho to follow Kane around the pitch.”

Burnley v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00

Michael Jackson has won 10 points from his first four games in charge of Burnley, largely by reinvigorating the tactical model that has long been deployed by Sean Dyche. There haven’t been too many changes, bar an upturn in energy and a simplification of the strategy after Dyche had become unexpectedly experimental towards the end. But there is one notable difference.

With Josh Brownhill now partnering Jack Cork – who is in excellent form since being reinstated – Burnley have the technical ability in midfield to quickly shunt the ball out to either flank, from which point they look to launch high balls into the forwards. Attempts to build through the lines have gone; all Burnley require now is to find space in deep wide areas to ping balls forward.

Steven Gerrard continues to use a diamond 4-4-2 at Aston Villa, and although there have been some trials with other formations Villa always look equally narrow. They can struggle to fill the wide areas, especially when on the back foot and forced into a deeper shape. It is likely that Burnley will be able to get on the outside of that diamond and create numerous chances.

Liverpool v Tottenham
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Tottenham Hotspur are exactly the kind of team who could end Liverpool’s home run. Antonio Conte’s use of attacking transitions and counter-attacks could breach Liverpool’s high defensive line, although just as important is the overall position of his reactive shape. Spurs will sit behind the ball to slow Liverpool down, but they will also stay doggedly in a midblock, refusing to let themselves get penned in.

From here, much rests on how Fabinho can handle Harry Kane. Kane tends to drop off the front line as Dejan Kulusevski and Heung-Min Son makes runs beyond, which catches out almost anyone with a high line – including Manchester City in a 3-2 win this year. Jurgen Klopp will need a specific plan, and most likely it will be on Fabinho to follow Kane around the pitch.

Despite the threat Spurs pose Liverpool are deserved favourites. The urgency of their passing through midfield will inevitably push Spurs back into a 5-3-2 at times, at which point Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson will get the room – on the outside of a narrow midfield – that they need. The huge mismatch in quality between these two and Emerson Royal and Ryan Sessegnon gives Liverpool the edge.

Arsenal v Leeds
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Leeds United are a lot calmer than they were under Marcelo Bielsa. They no longer deploy a man-oriented press in open play, instead maintaining a basic shape that ensures their matches do not descend into anarchy. What’s more, Jesse Marsch isn’t training them as hard or asking them to press quite so manically; this game will not be as open as the reverse fixture, a 4-1 win for Arsenal at Elland Road.

The key battle is between Nuno Tavares, Arsenal’s weak link while Kieran Tierney is injured, and Rafinha. The Brazilian will expect to win his head-to-head, becoming active when Leeds are able to launch counters off the back of an Arsenal period of dominance; although the hosts will have most of the ball, Marsch has retained the verticality that makes Leeds so dangerous on the break.

However, Man City’s 4-0 win last weekend suggests Leeds will be more defensive than many people think, and unfortunately they don’t have the quality to deal with an onslaught. Whether retaining a back five or not, the midfield combinations between Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard will out-wit a Leeds side suddenly threatened with relegation.

Man City v Newcastle
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Liverpool’s early goal at Newcastle United last weekend ensured it looked like an easy 1-0 win, but the margins were finer than they might have looked. Eddie Howe knows how to organise a compact team and compress the space; he knows how to slow a game right down by conceding territory but engaging fiercely in defensive actions within 30 metres of goal.

And while Liverpool have the unexpected rhythms and unusual dribblers to break organised lines like Newcastle’s, Man City’s great weakness is a certain predictability when matches become a slog. Their lack of a striker, and use of very similar forwards across the line, means things can become laboured and static, as we saw in draws against Crystal Palace and Southampton.

After the disappointment – and more importantly, the shock – of their midweek exit Man City are unlikely to make a fast start, allowing Newcastle to get a foothold and force a match played at their own pace.