Get our football experts’ best bets for Friday with a League One play-off, action in Serie A, Ligue 1 and much more…
“Both League One matches between Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday this season were won by the home side (5-0 at the Stadium of Light and 3-0 at Hillsborough).”
Alan’s bet: Back the Draw @ 3.259/4
Bragantino 1.9520/21 v Velez Sarsfield 4.03/1, the Draw 3.211/5
01:00
You’ll need to be quick off the mark to catch this Copa Libertadores’ clash between Bragantino and Velez Sarsfield but, with South American expert Nathan Joyes on tipping duty, it may well be worth it…
Nathan says: “What has been clear to see from Velez’s three group games to date is the lack of ability to defend from crosses or set pieces. In fact, the Argentinians, who have conceded eight goals already, have conceded five goals from balls into the box.
“Bragantino have scored four goals in their three matches, and noticeably three of those have been from crosses into the box. It’s a clear strength they have, and with this being Velez’s Achilles’ heel, the Argentinians may find themselves undone once again with their poor defending.”
Nathan’s bet:
Inter 1.171/6 v Empoli 21.020/1, the Draw 10.09/1
17:45
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video
The Serie A champions get the weekend’s action underway at Empoli and our Italian football expert fancies the away win…
Chloe says: “The Infogol model gives Empoli just a 10% chance of winning this match and it is easy to see why, the Tuscan side having not beaten Inter since April 2006. Since then, the Nerazzurri are undefeated across 16 meetings with Friday’s opponents, a streak that includes victory in each of their last eight encounters.
“Meanwhile, Empoli have won just one of their last 18 matches this season, and have conceded two or more goals in their last eight meetings with Inter.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Chloe’s bet:
Bochum 2.285/4 v Arminia Bielefeld 3.3512/5, the Draw 3.7511/4
19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
The penultimate round of the Bundesliga season gets underway at Bochum on Friday night and we’ve got a correct score tip for you based on xG data…
Tom Victor says: “After stealing a late victory in Dortmund last weekend, Bochum can set their sights on a top-half finish. Opponents Arminia are fighting for their lives, but are in the midst of a dreadful run which continues to harm their survival hopes.
“The visitors are averaging just 0.84 xGF on the road, along with 2.06 xGA, and Infogol’s model backs Bochum to claim the points.”
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Tom’s bet:
Sunderland 2.747/4 v Sheffield Wednesday 2.915/8, the Draw 3.39/4
19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Alan Dudman is looking to keep his profit margin up with Friday’s League One play-off semi-final first leg between Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday…
Alan says: “Both League One matches between Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday this season were won by the home side (5-0 at the Stadium of Light and 3-0 at Hillsborough). The Black Cats and the Owls last met three times in the same campaign back in 1971-72.
“With both of those hitting the Over 2.5 target, that market has a generous 2.35/4 on offer. That initially was quite surprising, with the Under 2.5 at 1.748/11 shorter than anticipated, but it seems the gameplan from the layers here is to think that Wednesday will get a result – perhaps a low-scoring draw at the Stadium Of Light and to keep it tight, and then to unleash their attack in the second-leg – as they have been excellent at Hillsborough this term.
“Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday have never before met in the month of May in any competition, with their previous latest meetings in a season coming in 1910 and 1930 (both 30th April) and won by the Owls. This game will be the 10th different calendar month to see these two sides meet.”
Alan’s bet:
Lille 4.1 v Monaco 1.991/1, the Draw 3.8514/5
20:00
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video
After eight winners from his last 12 selections, James Eastham reveals the best bets on the Ligue 1 action this weekend, starting in northern France on Friday night…
James says: “The price of evens on a Monaco win presents an excellent opportunity given the obvious differences in form and motivation between these two sides.
“Mid-table Lille are obviously short of motivation and there are major problems on and off the pitch for manager Jocelyn Gourvennec to contend with.
“At their last home game a fortnight ago Lille fans protested against the side’s poor performances this season, with some calling for manager Gourvennec to quit. A similarly hostile reception at Stade Pierre Mauroy this weekend cannot be ruled out.
“There were signs of tetchiness and unrest among the Lille players when two of them were sent off in a miserable 3-0 defeat at Troyes last weekend. Lille gave away three penalties in that match, and you sense the end of the season cannot come soon enough for a squad that has nothing to play for.”
James’s bet:
Levante 3.1511/5 v Real Sociedad 2.427/5, the Draw 3.65
20:00
Live on Betfair Live Video
Levante are fighting for their La Liga survival and we’ve got a correct score tip for their crucial match against Real Sociedad based on xG data…
Tom Victor says: “After failing to take their chances at Valencia, Levante can’t afford any more dropped points if they want to keep themselves alive. Unfortunately, Infogol’s model anticipates a home defeat to Real Sociedad which would leave Alessio Lisci’s side with one foot in the second tier.
“Imanol Alguacil’s men won the reverse fixture back in August, and are backed to claim another three points to stay in the hunt for Europe.”
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Tom’s bet:
Source: BetFair French
