Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions for important games at both ends of the table…
“After wrapping up the title last weekend, Real Madrid might be tempted to take their foot off the gas, but the chance of denying their neighbours a top four finish could well motivate them on Sunday.”
Levante to move closer to drop
Levante v Real Sociedad
Friday, 20:00
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After failing to take their chances at Valencia, Levante can’t afford any more dropped points if they want to keep themselves alive. Unfortunately, Infogol’s model anticipates a home defeat to Real Sociedad which would leave Alessio Lisci’s side with one foot in the second tier. Imanol Alguacil’s men won the reverse fixture back in August, and are backed to claim another three points to stay in the hunt for Europe
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Mallorca to triumph as strugglers clash
Mallorca v Granada
Saturday, 13:00
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Just one point separates Mallorca and Granada either side of the relegation line, and the result at Visit Mallorca Estadi could be huge in determining which of the two has the best chance of survival. Granada’s 17 away games have seen them average 1.88 xGA, and Aitor Karaoke’s men will need to tighten up if they’re to avoid a potentially devastating loss in the Balearics.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Athletic to claim third straight win
Athletic Bilbao v Valencia
Saturday, 15:15
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Last week’s victory over Atlético Madrid served as a reminder of Athletic’s strength at San Mamés, where an average of 0.83 xGA makes them tough to beat. Infogol’s model expects Marcelino’s team to claim another three points against a Valencia side winless in their last five, making up for the late Marcos Andre equaliser which denied them a victory at the Mestalla in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.807/1
Cádiz to claim rare home win
Cádiz v Elche
Saturday, 17:30
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Cádiz’s home record remains the worst in La Liga, with just two victories at Nuevo Mirandilla. However, if they are to add to their 14 points there, Sergio’s team will feel a game against Elche provides their best chance. The visitors are almost mathematically safe, despite Infogol’s xG table putting them in the bottom three, and the hosts are expected to take the points on Saturday.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.008/1 or 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Alavés to miss chance at Celta
Celta Vigo v Alavés
Saturday, 17:30
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Alavés kept themselves kicking with a victory against Villarreal over the weekend, but their away form remains a worry. The last three on the road have all ended in defeat, with an average of just 0.74 xGF per game, and no team has a worse away xGA average than their 2.19. With two of their relegation rivals facing off earlier in the day, Alavés will need to upset the odds and turn their road form around when Infogol expects them to struggle.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Barça to kill off Betis’ top four hopes
Real Betis v Barcelona
Saturday, 20:00
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Three league games without a win have seen Betis fail to take advantage of their rivals’ slip-ups, and another defeat at Benito Villamarín on Saturday could all but end their top four chances. Goals have been an issue for Manuel Pellegrini’s side – they haven’t netted in La Liga since April 9 – and they’re expected to struggle against a Barcelona side averaging 2.01 xGF per game on the road.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Getafe to move closer to safety
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 13:00
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Three more points ought to be enough to keep Getafe in La Liga for another season, and they can use their 1.02 xGA home average to their advantage against Rayo. The reverse fixture came before Quique Sánchez Flores’ appointment, when his team was enduring a nightmare start to the season, so one might not want to look to hard into the 3-0 scoreline in Rayo’s favour, and Infogol backs Getafe to gain some revenge.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.6017/2
Villarreal to return from European action with a win
Villarreal v Sevilla
Sunday, 15:15
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Villarreal’s European exploits have been a distraction, but they’re still averaging a healthy 2.22 xGF at home and will even fancy their chances against a Sevilla side some 12 points ahead of them in the table. Julen Lopetegui’s visitors will still fancy their chances in the top four race even if they lose, and besides, their league-best away defence means they can’t be counted out at Estadio de la Cerámica.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Espanyol to end losing streak
Espanyol v Osasuna
Sunday, 17:30
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Espanyol’s three successive defeats have come with a 1.61 xGA average, but their performances have perhaps warranted a little more. With Mallorca and Granada up against each other, three points on Sunday would be enough to guarantee Vicente Moreno’s team another year in La Liga, and Infogol’s model expects them to have enough against an Osasuna side outperforming their numbers on the road.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1 or 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Atlético to beat Real Madrid in derby
Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid
Sunday, 20:00
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After wrapping up the title last weekend, Real Madrid might be tempted to take their foot off the gas, but the chance of denying their neighbours a top four finish could well motivate them on Sunday. That said, Infogol backs Atléti to gain the bragging rights at Wanda Metropolitano, with their league-best 0,77 xGA at home likely to make things tough for the newly-crowned champions.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga
