Get the best bets on a huge night of football as Manchester City take a single goal advantage to Spain to face the mighty Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final second leg…
“Benzema bagged hat-tricks against PSG at home and Chelsea away, and with a goal he would become just the fourth player to score in both legs of the quarter-final and semi-final in a season, after Fernando Morientes (2003-04, Monaco), Neymar (2014-15, Barcelona) and Edin Dzeko (2017-18, Roma).”
Real Madrid 3.3512/5 v Man City 2.166/5, the Draw 4.1
20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Paul Higham thinks a Karim Benzema goal is inevitable at the Bernabeu in what should be another thriller between Real Madrid and Man City as they battle to reach the Champions League final.
Paul says: “After Real beat Chelsea in extra time at the Bernabeu, and with just one goal the difference, 8.07/1 for either team to win in extra time shouldn’t be ruled out completely.
“City have a better team though and with their squad they should be able to beat anybody with a one-goal lead. Both teams to score is a short price at 1.4740/85 but after watching them both in the first leg seems an almost certainty, and while there shouldn’t be seven goals again, over 3.5 goals at 2.3 seems fair.
“Karim Benzema just looks inevitable at the moment and is cemeting his place as a true Real Madrid great with another fantastic scoring season – including nine Champions League knockout goals.
“He bagged hat-tricks against PSG at home and Chelsea away, and with a goal he would become just the fourth player to score in both legs of the quarter-final and semi-final in a season, after Fernando Morientes (2003-04, Monaco), Neymar (2014-15, Barcelona) and Edin Dzeko (2017-18, Roma).”
Paul’s bet:
European football expert Andy Brassell takes a close look at the challenge facing the newly-crowned champions of Spain in Wednesday’s Champions League semi-final second leg.
Andy says: “Many will think El Real should simply lean into the chaos, as they so often dice with danger in the knockout rounds and come up smiling, due to that quality, their experience and the indefatigable belief that they can turn around the most unpromising of situations.
“To expect goals on Wednesday night is no recency bias. Four out of Madrid’s last five home knockout round fixtures have delivered four goals within the 90 minutes.
“Despite the club’s illustrious history modern-day Madrid are a far more reactive beast these days and have been since Zinedine Zidane‘s first spell in charge. They are still well set to play on the counter, where the link between Vinicius and Benzema is electric this season, and trailing should not deter them from doing that, for City will not sit in and hold.
“In many ways the return leg with Paris Saint-Germain, which was faced with an identical deficit, could be a good template – but if El Real start the game as they started that second leg, City are highly unlikely to show them any mercy.”
Andy’s bet:
There were seven goals in the first match between Real Madrid and Real Madrid and Dan Fitch is banking on more in his Champions League semi-final Bet Builder.
Dan says: “With the first-leg having seen seven goals shared between the two sides, it’s no surprise to see that both teams to score is a relatively short price at 4/9 on the Sportsbook. That’s where we’ll start our Bet Builder, with that wager landing in each of Madrid’s last four Champions League games.
“Over 3.5 goals has also landed in each of Real’s last four Champions League games and is available at the relatively big price of 5/4. That’s a tempting addition, but we’ll play it safer and go for over 2.5 goals at 4/9.
“Karim Benzema scored two of the three goals for Real Madrid last week. He was only the seventh favourite to find the net in the first-leg, but in the return is rightly favoured to add to his tally of 42 goals in as many games, which includes 14 goals in ten Champions League appearances.
“There are a range of options involving Benzema. We’re going to go for him to either score or assist, at odds of 8/11. That completes a Bet Builder treble paying out at 2.3611/8.
Dan’s bet:
Back both teams to score, over 2.5 goals and Benzema to score or assist @ 2.3611/8
That man Paul Higham takes another look at Real Madrid v Manchester City, this time for his props bet of the day column, and recommends we go big on the shots.
Paul says: “We might not get seven goals again but it’s hard to imagine we won’t see a few goals at the Bernabeu, with both teams likely to find the back of the net.
“Pep Guardiola’s side blew Real away at the start of the first leg and another early strike – something City are masters of, could end it, but Madrid should give it plenty.
“And that means for us that stats should be padded enough for us to take advantage with some player performance angles for a Bet Builder in this Champions League semi-final.
“There were 26 shots in the first leg, with each side having five on target, and while the conversion rate is unlikely to be as high those stats could easily be replicated.”
Paul’s bet:
Back De Bruyne & Benzema 2+shots on target & Cancelo 2+shots @ 17.016/1
Cincinnati 2.0421/20 v Toronto 3.55/2, the Draw 4.216/5
00:30
Live on FreeSports
Finally, if you still want more after the drama of the Champions League there’s a late night/early hours of the morning clash in the MLS where Tobias Gourlay has found a bet.
Tobias says: “It’s a long day for this column as today’s punt comes all the way from Ohio, where FC Cincinnati host Toronto FC in the MLS at 00:30 UK time. If we can keep our eyes open, we should see a few goals.
“Home and away, both teams have scored in all nine of Toronto’s MLS games this season. The last eight have all delivered Over 2.5 Goals. Their last road trip brought a 5-4 defeat at NYCFC.
“Cincinnati’s last three games at TQL Stadium have finished 1-2, 3-4 and 3-1. The Orange & Blue’s last two meetings with Toronto have ended 2-3 and 2-1. Everything points to at least three match goals tonight – and maybe more. By backing Over 3.0 on the Goal Lines market, we get our stake back if there’s three and win if there’s any more than that.”
Tobias’s bet:
Source: Betfair Champions League
